Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week, influenced by shifting interest rate expectations and increasing demand for U.S. dollar liquidity. Concurrently, adjustments in the U.S. stock market prompted diversified portfolios to passively reduce their gold holdings. Domestic investors, however, remained relatively optimistic, maintaining overall strength in gold during Asian trading hours.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, with diminishing hopes for a near-term resolution. Traditional safe-haven assets—gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. dollar—diverged in performance. Amidst stagflation concerns, interest rates trended higher, making gold investors, who base decisions on real interest rate logic, particularly sensitive. Safe-haven capital flowed primarily into the U.S. dollar, and the rising dollar index continued to weigh on commodities, including gold. Additionally, volatility in U.S. stocks, driven by rising inflation expectations, led to passive reductions in overall portfolio allocations, further pressuring gold. Significant outflows from European and U.S. gold ETFs during the week reflected this trend. In contrast, domestic investors maintained strong enthusiasm for gold, supporting its strength in Asian trading hours.
The recent U.S. military strike against Iran failed to yield short-term results, unlike the action in Venezuela, and risks escalating into a prolonged conflict. Insufficient protection for allies in the Middle East has also undermined confidence in the U.S. dollar system. Once short-term liquidity pressures ease, gold is expected to realign with the narrative of de-dollarization. The current decline in gold volatility may present a medium- to long-term investment opportunity.
In market developments last week, U.S. core inflation remained elevated. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, matching market expectations and December’s figure. Year-on-year, it increased by 3.1%, largely in line with forecasts and marking the highest level since March 2024.
Rising oil prices have dampened prospects for monetary easing.
Gold ETF Bosera (159937) and its feeder funds (002610, 002611) track the performance of RMB-denominated gold prices by investing in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Investors can purchase these feeder funds through official channels such as the Bosera Fund app and website, with a minimum investment of 1 yuan (subject to specific channel announcements). These funds offer investors diversified ways to invest in gold.
Risk Warning: Recent gold price fluctuations have been significant. Investors should fully understand the risks involved and make prudent decisions based on their risk tolerance. It is advisable to monitor global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical developments, and related dynamics.
Specific Risk Warning: This fund is a gold index fund, with over 90% of its assets invested in domestic gold spot contracts. Gold spot contracts differ from stocks and bonds, and their risk-return profile is distinct from equity, hybrid, bond, and money market funds. The fund’s risk-return characteristics align closely with those of domestic gold spot prices. As a gold index fund, its performance is highly correlated with gold prices, exposing investors to gold price volatility. Investors should be aware of specific risks associated with gold-themed funds, such as gold market fluctuations, deviations between fund performance and domestic gold spot returns, and risks related to investing in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s gold spot market.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials, and no guarantee is made regarding its accuracy or completeness. The content does not constitute actual investment results or investment advice. Data sources, unless otherwise stated, include Wind, Bloomberg, or Bosera Fund. All rights reserved by Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd. Investing involves risks; please exercise caution.
Risk Disclosure: Funds carry risks, and investments should be made cautiously. Publicly offered securities investment funds are long-term instruments designed to diversify risk. Unlike savings products offering fixed returns, fund investments may lead to gains or losses. Before investing, read the fund contract, prospectus, and key fund information to understand risks and features. Assess your risk tolerance based on investment objectives, horizon, experience, and financial situation. Make rational and careful decisions.
Funds vary by type—equity, hybrid, bond, money market, fund of funds, commodity—each with different risk-return profiles. Higher returns typically entail greater risks. Funds face market, management, technical, and compliance risks. Large-scale redemptions may delay payouts. Systematic investment plans do not eliminate fund risks or guarantee returns and are not equivalent to savings.
The fund manager aims to manage assets diligently but does not guarantee profits or minimum returns. Past performance does not indicate future results. Investors bear investment risks. The fund invests in stocks, including those on specific boards, which carry liquidity, delisting, and concentration risks.
Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its feeder shares (002610, 002611) are registered with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The fund documents are disclosed on CSRC and Bosera Fund websites. CSRC registration does not endorse the fund’s value or returns, nor does it imply risk-free investment.
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