November 1 saw major automakers release their October sales figures. As the opening month of the fourth quarter, October sales are regarded as the clearest snapshot for observing structural shifts in the industry. This October may prove to be a watershed moment for the sector.
Leapmotor surpassed 100,000 units for the fourth consecutive month, Xpeng broke through 50,000 units in monthly sales for the first time, and Xiaomi again exceeded 50,000 units in a single month. On the other side, GAC Toyota's monthly sales fell 26% year-on-year, Dongfeng Honda dropped 41%, and both Li Auto and NIO saw notable year-on-year declines, while HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility was cut in half compared to a year earlier. "Li Auto is disappointing, NIO has no future, and HarmonyOS is completely finished," one consumer remarked when summing up the October results.
Latest data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that new energy vehicles accounted for 60.5% of trade-in replacements, driving the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles above 60% for six consecutive months. Domestic brands and new forces collectively hit new highs, while the foundation of joint-venture fuel vehicles is accelerating its loosening. The market landscape has fundamentally changed. Industry analysts point out that the financial data behind some companies' sales figures is concerning. Li Auto, Xpeng, and Deepal are all mired in losses, and Leapmotor's profit per vehicle sold amounts to roughly the cost of a hot pot meal.
Is Li Auto Not Ideal, Does NIO Have No Future?
Traditionally, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is a critical stretch for automakers to build momentum toward their annual targets. October is considered a pivotal node that bridges the year's sales performance, directly determining the posture with which automakers enter the final annual sprint. Judging from the sales data released by major automakers, the picture is sharply divided between winners and losers.
October's monthly sales have already revealed clear tier differentiation among automakers. On the new forces side, NIO delivered 34,246 new vehicles in October. For the first ten months of this year, it delivered a total of 334,547 units, up 38.5% year-on-year, setting a historical high. However, October deliveries declined noticeably compared to the same period last year, when 40,397 units were delivered. For 2026, NIO has not set a specific sales target but has made clear its expectation of a "40% to 50% annual growth rate." NIO's founder once emphasized that the auto industry must avoid sales declines, saying "any decline means the year is wasted" and that "the company will shift from pursuing explosive growth to pursuing steady, high-speed growth, with the core being improved operational efficiency and growth quality." He stated that full-year profitability in 2026 is the company's operating goal.
Li Auto faces a similar situation. In October, it delivered 29,025 new vehicles, a decrease of 2,742 units compared to the 31,767 units delivered in the same period last year. Some consumers summed up the October market performance of automakers this way: "Li Auto is not ideal, NIO has no future."
It is worth noting that HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility delivered 33,537 units in October, compared to 68,216 units in the same period last year, a significant year-on-year decline. Previously, HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility had anchored its 2026 annual sales target at a high range of 1 million to 1.3 million vehicles, requiring a year-on-year increase of up to 120%. Its eagerness for market share and attempt to overtake competitors on the curve is evident.
On the other hand, several automakers achieved historic breakthroughs. In October, Xpeng delivered a total of 50,237 new vehicles, up 22% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year, setting a record high for monthly deliveries. Among these, overseas market deliveries reached 13,326 units, up 166% year-on-year, also a record high for monthly overseas deliveries. Xiaomi Auto delivered over 50,000 vehicles in October, breaking the 50,000 mark in a single month for the first time this year. Who the industry leaders are is beginning to take shape.
Leapmotor delivered 106,127 vehicles globally in October, up 51% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of monthly sales exceeding 100,000 units. As of the end of October, cumulative deliveries exceeded 1.9 million units. Zeekr delivered 32,483 vehicles in October, up 51.6% year-on-year. For the first ten months, it delivered a total of 320,887 vehicles, up 94.4% year-on-year, making it one of the fastest-growing new energy brands under traditional automakers. Changan's new force brand Deepal announced global sales of 32,602 vehicles in October, up 8.01% month-on-month, with sales stabilizing above 30,000 units.
On the joint-venture side, GAC Toyota sold 53,022 vehicles in October, compared to 71,604 units in the same period last year, a decline of about 26%. Dongfeng Honda's October terminal sales were 17,026 units, up 16.9% month-on-month, but last year's same-period sales were 28,896 units, a year-on-year drop of 41%. Among these, the flagship CR-V sold 10,455 units, up 7.9% month-on-month, and the HR-V sold 2,383 units, up 71.8% month-on-month. The golden era of joint-venture fuel SUVs is fading.
Who Will Have the Last Laugh?
"The core significance of October sales lies in its nodal value. It is both a phased summary of the past nine months' results and a decision-making basis for the final two months' sprint strategy," industry insiders say. Under normal circumstances, automakers should complete about 75% of their annual sales targets in the first nine months. Therefore, October sales combined with the first three quarters' data essentially set the tone for the full-year performance. If October performance is strong, automakers still have a chance to sprint; otherwise, they may have to face the reality of missing their annual targets.
The landscape of the new forces camp is changing. In terms of sales, Leapmotor has taken the top spot among new forces. Xpeng and Xiaomi have held steady above the 40,000-unit monthly sales threshold, while Li Auto remains in the ramp-up phase of its pure electric product iteration, with clear growth pressure. Some joint-venture brands with slow transformation or outdated product cycles continue to face pressure.
Currently, judging by annual target completion rates, the vast majority of automakers are still short of the theoretical 75% passing line for the first three quarters. Analysts believe that October's sales performance will force automakers to recalibrate their strategies. If the target gap is too large, the focus in the fourth quarter may shift from "pushing volume" to maintaining channel health, profit safety, and other more fundamental survival issues.
The same insiders also emphasize that manufacturer-reported sales (wholesale) do not equal the volume consumers actually purchase (retail). High wholesale figures may indicate high dealer inventory rather than strong terminal demand. Therefore, sales figures need to be judged in combination with terminal retail data and inventory conditions to reflect the true state of the market.
The China Automobile Dealers Association released its latest "Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" on October 31. The results show that the October 2026 automobile dealer inventory warning index was 62.2%, above the boom-or-bust line, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.0 percentage point month-on-month. Although the index retreated slightly from September's 63.2%, the year-on-year increase expanded significantly, and pressure on the channel side has not substantially eased.
In its trend analysis, the China Automobile Dealers Association noted that the October auto market entered the traditional "Silver October" peak season, but the performance was notably lackluster. The National Day holiday effect combined with autumn auto shows and promotional policies in multiple regions drove foot traffic and orders higher in the first half of the month, but foot traffic quickly fell back to normal levels in the second half. Analysts believe that wait-and-see sentiment at the terminal persists, with consumers generally waiting for year-end discount windows. Price comparison competition has intensified, and the car purchase decision cycle has lengthened.
"Sales volume is the qualification to sit at the table; making money is the ability to stay at the table," an industry analyst said frankly. Although some companies' October sales data looks impressive, their financial statements are actually not optimistic. Li Auto, Xpeng, and Deepal are all deep in losses. Leapmotor reported a net profit of about 210 million yuan in the first half of this year, with sales of 356,487 vehicles, translating to a net profit of about 589 yuan per vehicle. "The profit from selling one car is just about enough for a hot pot meal."
Comments