The tungsten market continues its bullish momentum, driven by two key factors: significant upward adjustments in long-term procurement prices by major tungsten producers and production cuts or shutdowns at key raw material facilities—from tungsten ore and compounds to tungsten powder and tungsten carbide powder. Supply-side constraints have intensified further, sustaining strong market demand and pushing overall tungsten product prices higher.
As of December 18, prices for tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder continued to rise. Tungsten powder (≥99.7%) reached RMB 1.01 million per ton, up 219.6% year-to-date, while Wind data showed domestic tungsten powder (≥99.7%) prices climbing to RMB 1.045 million per ton, with a notably steeper increase in December compared to November. Industry experts attribute the recent price acceleration to year-end supply tightening and upward revisions in long-term contract prices.
CICC highlights that domestic production faces pressure due to declining ore grades and stricter regulatory requirements, while overseas supply growth remains uncertain amid geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. The firm expects tungsten prices to remain strong in the near term, potentially setting new highs, as global supply-demand dynamics tighten.
CICC projects that tungsten's long-term price floor could stabilize at RMB 450,000–500,000 per ton, supported by persistent supply deficits. From 2025 to 2028, global tungsten production is forecast to rise from 82,800 tons to 89,900 tons, while demand grows from 102,100 tons to 110,000 tons, sustaining the deficit. Structural demand from advanced manufacturing, AI, nuclear fusion, and infrastructure sectors may further bolster tungsten prices over the long term.
**HK-listed Tungsten Concept Stock**: **JIAXIN INTL RES (03858)**: The Bakuta Tungsten Project commenced Phase I commercial production in April 2025, targeting annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore. In H1 2025, the company processed 945,000 tons of ore, yielding 1,205 tons of tungsten concentrate. H2 targets include 1.65 million tons of ore and 3,638 tons of concentrate—triple H1 output. Phase II, slated for Q1 2027, aims to expand annual capacity to 4.95 million tons, accelerating production growth.
CMSC estimates JIAXIN's ore processing volume at 3.8/4.95 million tons in 2026–2027, yielding 11,000/13,700 tons of tungsten concentrate. With long-term price expectations of RMB 450,000–500,000 per ton and projected per-ton costs as low as RMB 49,000 by 2027, the company stands to benefit from favorable market conditions.
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