In the trading week just ended (September 21 to 24), the A-share market halted its run of consecutive gains from the prior week and shifted into a classic pre-holiday pattern.
Wind data showed that major stock indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 3,900-point mark, while small- and micro-cap stocks and dividend-focused sectors posted scattered gains, and the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices led the declines. Over the full week, only 1,947 stocks recorded cumulative gains.
According to a backtest of Wind data covering the nine years from 2017 to 2025, even after excluding 2024 figures (to avoid skewing the average too high), the Wind All A index still displayed a mildly bullish "first dip, then rally" structure in the final three trading days before the National Day holiday.
The third-to-last trading day proved to be the most dangerous: after removing the policy distortion of 2024, only two of the eight remaining years saw gains (25%), with an average decline of 0.68% and a median of -0.48%. This is the day when pre-holiday risk-aversion sentiment is most concentrated and trading volume shrinks most dramatically, as funds cut positions in unison.
The final two days clearly turned more bullish: the probability of gains rebounded to 62%, and the average return shifted from negative to positive. This does not contradict the "shrinking volume" phenomenon — in a low-volume environment, once selling pressure is exhausted, even modest buying interest (positioning for the post-holiday period and pre-holiday stabilization) can nudge the index slightly higher.
A red close on the very last day is a relatively stable calendar feature: over the nine years, the final day rose six times (67%), and even after excluding 2024, it still rose five out of eight times (62%), with an average gain of 0.23%. The market tends to finish the last trading day before a long holiday in positive territory.
As a result, when the market reaches the actual three days before the National Day holiday, concerns across market participants are likely to be considerably more muted than during the three days before the Mid-Autumn Festival that just passed.
A research note from Founder Securities stated that the current rebound has been difficult, but the window for actively seizing rebound opportunities remains open, and the recovery will not happen overnight — a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern of rangebound upward movement will be the dominant theme. A-share technology stocks have clearly lagged overseas peers, and combined with the recent notable uptick in AI narratives, there is still room in both time and scope for a tech rebound.
The risk lies in pressure from overseas macroeconomic variables, including oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, which are broadly unfavorable for large-cap style. As a result, structural opportunities in the market will mainly lean toward small- and micro-cap stocks as well as thematic plays.
The institution recommends buying on dips and focusing on three areas of allocation opportunity. First, after entering October, technology catalysts will increase, the AI industry trend and prosperity remain solid, and the allocation value rises significantly once crowding recedes; investors should watch changes in public fund holdings disclosed in October, with tech exposure tilting toward subsectors that can raise prices, expand volumes, or achieve new technological breakthroughs. Second, attention should be paid to opportunities to buy HALO assets on dips, focusing on non-ferrous metals and chemicals linked to core resources after oil prices pull back. Third, non-bank financials, which react most directly to monetary policy changes, have good earnings-to-valuation alignment, and can stabilize the index, deserve attention.
Separately, multiple institutions, after reviewing historical market patterns, concluded that pre-holiday weakness and post-holiday recovery constitute a prominent calendar effect.
Next week, the A-share market will have three trading days (September 28 to September 30). According to current issuance arrangements, investors can subscribe on the 28th to ChiNext newcomer Lianya Pharmaceutical and Beijing Stock Exchange newcomer Nanfang Dairy.
According to a prospectus disclosed on the 23rd, Lianya Pharmaceutical's issue price is 7.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a diluted price-to-earnings ratio of 23.79 times. According to a preliminary pricing and promotion announcement disclosed on the 16th, Lianya Pharmaceutical plans to publicly issue 134 million shares, accounting for 15.00% of total share capital after issuance, with the online subscription code 301569.
According to a prospectus released on the 23rd, Nanfang Dairy will issue 35.1852 million shares, representing 19.00% of total share capital after issuance, at an issue price of 14.21 yuan per share, with a post-issuance price-to-earnings ratio of 11.99 times and a post-issuance price-to-book ratio of 1.11 times. Nanfang Dairy is expected to raise approximately 500 million yuan in total, with proceeds earmarked for the Weining County Nanfang Dairy cattle breeding base construction project and the Guizhou Nanfang Dairy marketing network construction project.
On the share unlocking front, Wind data shows that during next week's three trading days (September 28 to 30), the A-share market will see a wave of lock-up expirations, with 62 stocks facing unlocking totaling 14.941 billion shares and a market value of nearly 110 billion yuan. Several stocks have sizable unlock volumes, with seven stocks seeing more than 100 million shares unlocked. At the same time, 17 stocks will have unlock share counts exceeding 10% of total share capital.
Wind data shows that from September 28 to 30, a total of 62 stocks face unlocking, with 30, 14 and 18 stocks unlocking on the 28th, 29th and 30th respectively. These stocks have a combined unlock volume of approximately 14.941 billion shares, of which 23 stocks have unlock volumes exceeding 10 million shares.
The views expressed in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing carries risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
Comments