Economic Research Institute Predicts July and September Cash Rate Hikes by New Zealand's Central Bank

Deep News06-03

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) released its quarterly economic outlook report on Wednesday in Wellington, forecasting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will increase the official cash rate in both July and September.

The institute indicated that the fuel crisis has placed the central bank in a difficult policy position, as rising oil prices are pushing inflation higher while weakening demand and growing uncertainty are dragging on economic growth.

The RBNZ has previously stated that its primary risk to manage is that high oil prices could spread to broader inflation expectations, subsequently triggering a wage-price spiral.

Assuming the relevant conflicts conclude by the end of this year, the institute projects that annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation will return to within the RBNZ's target band by mid-2027.

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