On the morning of January 19, the highly anticipated "annual report" for the Chinese economy in 2025 was released. In the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," amidst a complex landscape of intensified external shocks, heightened uncertainties, and overlapping internal difficulties and challenges, what kind of report card did the Chinese economy deliver? Adhering to the general principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," how solid was the foundation for "stability" laid this year, and how significant were the breakthroughs in the momentum for "progress"? Let the data speak in today's program.
"Stability" was a prominent feature of the Chinese economy in 2025. First, let's examine how "stable" economic growth was. Preliminary calculations indicate the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% calculated at constant prices. Quarterly breakdowns show GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter.
Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated: "Last year, China's total economic output surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 5%, ranking among the top performers of major economies. Its contribution to world economic growth is expected to remain around 30%. China continues to be the most important, stable, and reliable engine for the global economy. Viewed over a longer time horizon, the Chinese economy achieved an average annual growth of 5.4% during the five years of the '14th Five-Year Plan,' with an economic increment exceeding 36 trillion yuan. This fully demonstrates the Chinese economy's capacity to adapt and navigate challenges, as well as its strong resilience to withstand pressure."
In 2025, certain countries' indiscriminate imposition of tariffs disrupted global trade秩序, making foreign trade an area of significant concern. Facing a complex external environment, did China's foreign trade manage to hold steady? We summarize the situation with three sets of keywords. Looking at growth, resilience is evident: In 2025, China's total goods import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a record high, increasing 3.8% year-on-year. This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth since 2017, with exports growing 6.1% year-on-year. Examining products, breakthroughs through "innovation": Exports of high-tech products grew 13.2% year-on-year; for instance, exports of transport robots and welding robots both saw growth rates exceeding 60%. Assessing markets, diversified expansion: China's exports to Belt and Road Initiative partner countries grew 11.2%, and export growth to emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa all outpaced the overall average, solidifying China's role as a "critical link" in global industrial and supply chains.
Tian Xuan, Dean of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University, commented: "Our ability to successfully navigate this situation stems primarily from product and technological upgrades coupled with a comprehensive global market strategy. For example, our exports to the United States, which previously accounted for about 20%, have now decreased to around 10%. This global market layout has effectively mitigated the impact of US trade barriers against us." Liu Qiao, Dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, added: "We observe significant growth in exports of items like electric vehicles, electrical equipment, and even integrated circuits and semiconductors. The continuous upgrading and refinement of our industrial structure also demonstrate the strong resilience of our foreign trade exports."
Confronting challenges and pressures, in 2025, China for the first time proposed the "Four Stabilities," focusing on stabilizing employment, stabilizing enterprises, stabilizing markets, and stabilizing expectations. A series of policy "combination punches" were deployed continuously. In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.1%, rising above the 50% expansion threshold for the first time since April. Furthermore, the Production and Business Activity Expectation Index was 55.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month. Tian Xuan noted: "This data indicates an expansionary phase—any reading above 50% signifies expansion. It reflects optimism among enterprises regarding future investments, fostering a positive sentiment. Companies are more willing to make corresponding investments, which also signals market optimism. Therefore, it releases a very positive signal."
On the foundation of "stability," how was the momentum for "progress," which represents development quality? Let's first look at a key component of domestic demand—consumption. China possesses an enviably massive market of global scale. In 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing 3.7% year-on-year. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52.0%. While stabilizing the fundamental consumption base, China's consumption structure is also continuously upgrading. For instance, nearly half of total household consumption expenditure was attributed to digital consumption. Did you shop via live streams or purchase smart home devices and other digital products this year? These all fall under digital consumption.
Wang Guanhua explained: "Throughout last year, China's online retail sales grew by 8.6%, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. Transactions like live-streaming commerce grew by over 10%, and instant retail transaction volume increased by more than 30%. The rapid development in these digital consumption areas highlights the crucial role of new products, formats, and model innovations in stimulating consumption potential." In 2025, service consumption became the core driver of consumption growth, with service retail sales increasing 5.5% year-on-year. Simply put, whereas goods consumption previously dominated, primarily meeting survival needs and emphasizing practical functions, people are now increasingly willing to pay for things that satisfy their hobbies and interests and provide emotional value. China's consumption structure is accelerating its transition towards being service-consumption-led.
Simultaneously, service consumption itself is undergoing structural upgrades. A major focus for boosting consumption in 2025 was to facilitate a "two-way奔赴" between supply and demand. This means that when the public has a demand for high-quality products and services, the supply side strives to create them. Conversely, leveraging new technologies like artificial intelligence, the supply side continuously creates various new scenarios and experiences, which in turn attract consumer spending. The "progress" within the context of "stability with progress" in 2025 was also reflected in the accelerated growth of new quality productive forces. Consider this set of data: value-added of equipment manufacturing industries above the designated size grew by 9.2%, and value-added of high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 9.4%, with growth rates 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points faster than the overall industrial sector above the designated size, respectively.
Value-added of digital product manufacturing industries above the designated size increased 9.3% year-on-year. Sales of new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of new domestic car sales, with an average of 45,000 new energy vehicles rolling off production lines daily. Wang Guanhua stated: "Over the past year, the Chinese economy has demonstrated distinct characteristics of advancing towards innovation, concentrated in two aspects: higher-end industries and smarter manufacturing. 'Higher-end industries' refers to the extension of China's industrial structure towards the medium and high-end. For instance, the proportion of advanced manufacturing, represented by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, is steadily increasing, pushing China further up the global industrial and value chains. 'Smarter manufacturing' refers to the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the digital economy over the past year, particularly the remarkable rise of domestically developed large AI models."
As the year ended and a new one began, dancing, interactive robots became busy again. Their agile and endearing figures were frequently spotted at New Year's Eve galas and cultural tourism events. Since humanoid robots debuted on the Spring Festival Gala stage and DeepSeek gained massive popularity last Chinese New Year, people witnessed in 2025 the accelerated deep integration of artificial intelligence with the real economy. While some might not fully grasp what DeepSeek is, these seemingly distant new technologies and products are rapidly integrating into our production and daily lives, empowering countless industries. Tian Xuan emphasized: "Its application scenarios are virtually limitless. It can significantly reduce the costs associated with repetitive, standardized work, leading to a comprehensive leap in our total factor productivity. The core AI industry scale has already exceeded one trillion yuan, and it's foreseeable that this number will rise steeply. In 2026, and throughout the '15th Five-Year Plan' period, I believe the new industrial revolution represented by artificial intelligence will effectively drive our economy towards high-quality growth."
Wang Guanhua added: "Artificial intelligence's role in driving the entire economy is very evident. For example, it directly stimulates investment in related industrial chains like computing power and servers, creating new investment increments. Furthermore, it enhances production efficiency in both industry and services, cultivating and strengthening new growth drivers. For instance, the value-added of core digital economy industries as a proportion of the national economy is steadily increasing. The output of intelligent products related to AI, such as servers, industrial robots, service robots, robot reducers, and 3D printing equipment, has all achieved very rapid growth." In 2025, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively. Within high-tech industries, investment in information services, and aircraft, spacecraft, and related equipment manufacturing grew by 28.4% and 16.9% respectively. China's innovation index entered the global top ten for the first time.
Artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and other emerging industries are accelerating their growth, contributing to industrial structure optimization and progressively reshaping the developmental momentum of the Chinese economy. Liu Qiao stated: "In 2025, investment growth in our high-tech manufacturing sector remained persistently high, exceeding that of traditional manufacturing. This is valuable for optimizing our overall industrial structure and forming new growth drivers. Another point I want to emphasize is investment, particularly effective investment. We have a major national-level strategic plan for 'AI+'. It's often said that the destination of AI is computing power, and the destination of computing power is electricity. I think in the coming period, investments in computing power, electricity, data centers, and even in these AI application scenarios will transform the growth momentum of the Chinese economy."
In 2025, the "14th Five-Year Plan" concluded successfully. The national economy withstood multiple pressures to maintain a development trend of "stability with progress," achieving new results in high-quality development. "Resilience" became a keyword for the Chinese economy. Facing a volatile international landscape, China's unwavering focus on managing its own affairs well enables it to counter the uncertainties of a rapidly changing external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. Currently, the "stable" pattern, "progressive" momentum, and "resilient" nature of China's economy remain unchanged, providing solid support for maintaining a stable and progressive development trend. We are confident that on the new journey of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the ship of the Chinese economy will surely ride the wind, break the waves, and advance steadily and far.
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