The price of gold experienced a significant decline yesterday, July 8th. The Asian session opened with some rebound but failed to reach the 4150 level. The European session then saw a sharp drop, with a plunge to around 4040. However, prices stabilized somewhat afterward, and the US session essentially traded within a range of several tens of dollars above and below 4050. Gold ultimately closed at $4075, marking a third consecutive negative daily close.
FOMC (FOMC) The most explosive news from last night, Thursday, July 9th, was undoubtedly former President Trump's public statement: the temporary peace agreement previously reached with Iran has "ended," and the US does not want further contact with Tehran. Gold prices fell directly. In essence, the US-Iran drama has shifted from "can a deal be reached" to the stage of "how to accuse each other of breaching the agreement." The market has clearly become desensitized to "verbal conflict"; now, everyone believes only one thing: oil prices are indeed falling, and the Strait remains open—these are unchangeable facts.
This morning's release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes showed that some officials believed there was already reason to hike rates in June (though they ultimately held steady). Most officials expressed concern about the stickiness of inflation, specifically mentioning that AI investment, tariffs, and oil prices could push inflation higher. The market repriced the probability of a rate hike this year to around 30%, and expectations for a September hike also warmed. The 10-year US Treasury yield probed the 4.56%–4.58% range, and the US Dollar Index held above the 101 level—this continues to exert sustained pressure on non-yielding gold. It can be said that the current environment presents a triple suppression in the short term: "strong dollar + high rate expectations + geopolitical oil price push → inflation worries," versus central bank gold purchases + strong support at the 4000 psychological level. The short-term bias is bearish oscillation, with the key being whether tonight's initial jobless claims data and official speeches can provide new directional momentum.
From a technical perspective, based on the daily chart structure, gold may continue to seesaw and oscillate below the moving average cluster in the short term. It struggles to rise significantly but also finds it hard to fall substantially. Ultimately, direction will depend on heavyweight fundamental news, while also referencing the pace of the US dollar's movement. If the dollar breaks out of its current consolidation, gold is likely to follow with a reverse move. On the upside, initial focus is on the resistance test in the 4120-4130 area, which aligns with the 5 and 20-day moving averages. However, before that, there may be repeated contention and struggle around 4090-4100. For the day, support continues to be watched around 4030-4020. Should significant bearish fundamental news emerge, gold could then be watched for a test towards the previous lows around 3940-3900.
In summary, today gold's overall posture is that of a "weak oversold rebound within a bearish trend." The primary strategy favors selling on rallies, with 4020-4030 and 4000 being key defensive zones. Avoid chasing during the Asian session; instead, wait for a rebound to 4088-4100 during the European session to sell into resistance, or follow the trend after data releases. Strictly use stop-losses and maintain light positions. Of course, if prices directly break and hold firmly above the 4100 level, gold would likely see a short-term oversold technical correction.
Therefore, the operational recommendations for the day are as follows:
Gold: Sell at 4075-4080, stop loss at 4090, target 4020-4010.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Thursday, July 9th, 2026:
19:30 ECB releases June monetary policy meeting accounts
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 4th
21:00 Speech by Fed's Williams
22:00 US Existing Home Sales (Annualized) for June
Next Day 01:30 Speech by Fed's Logan
Comments