The market experienced a surge followed by a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative in the afternoon after having risen more than 1% earlier. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 3.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 290.4 billion yuan from the previous session, marking the third consecutive day above the 3.5 trillion yuan threshold. On the market front, hot sectors rotated rapidly, with over 2,700 stocks advancing across the board. By sector, AI application concepts saw a strong breakout, computing hardware concepts rallied in the afternoon, the semiconductor sector moved higher, and the commercial aerospace concept showed localized activity. On the downside, energy metals, insurance, and banking sectors led the declines. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.82%.
In today's broker morning briefings, CITIC Securities believes that self-sufficiency and AI will be the main themes running through the entire year; China Galaxy Securities suggests seizing the super copper cycle under the resonance of the "AI leap and century-long changes"; and China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) posits that the mid-term "seesaw effect" between stocks and bonds will further support the A-share market trend.
CITIC Securities: Self-Sufficiency and AI as the Year's Main Themes In 2025, the synergy between self-sufficiency and AI drove impressive performance in related sectors. Looking ahead to 2026, this industry trend is expected to strengthen further, with "self-sufficiency and AI computing power" likely becoming the absolute dominant theme for the electronics industry throughout the year. Focus on the accelerated volume growth trend of domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment for self-sufficiency, and the high certainty of a boom in PCBs and memory for the AI computing power direction. Additionally, "consumer electronics," as a secondary theme, may face a significant turning point opportunity, with a potential sector recovery opportunity to watch for in the second quarter of 2026.
China Galaxy Securities: Seizing the Super Copper Cycle Under the Resonance of "AI Leap and Century-Long Changes" Looking back at history, each super copper cycle corresponds to a clear and powerful macroeconomic narrative. The current cycle is simultaneously overlaid with two long-term logics: the "artificial intelligence technological revolution" and the "reshaping of the global order." Its sustainability and strategic significance are comparable to historical phases like post-war reconstruction and China's opening-up. There remains significant upside potential for copper prices. Firstly, although copper prices have repeatedly hit new highs, historical analysis shows that inflation-adjusted copper prices have not yet reached the heights of previous super cycles. Secondly, the international monetary order is being reshaped, weakening the foundation of the US dollar as an anchor for broad asset prices. If gold is used as a benchmark, the current copper-to-gold ratio remains at a historically low level. From an investment perspective, it is essential to re-evaluate the allocation value of copper with a medium to long-term view, focusing on copper resources, high-quality mining companies, and segments of the industrial chain closely related to power and AI infrastructure, thereby capturing the investment opportunities driven by both demand expansion and supply rigidity under the super copper cycle.
China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC): Mid-Term "Seesaw Effect" Between Stocks and Bonds Further Supports A-Share Trends As the global interest rate cutting cycle enters its second half in 2026, macro liquidity is characterized by two core features: "resonant internal and external easing" and a shift "from extraordinary to normal." On the exchange rate front, the US dollar faces pressure, while Renminbi appreciation supports a stronger A-share market. Regarding stock-bond reallocation, long-term low interest rates are reshaping the logic for allocating between stocks and bonds, and the mid-term "seesaw effect" will further bolster A-share market performance. Beyond this, the demand for reallocation from the "relocation of household deposits" could become the largest marginal increment for the market. On the policy front, the capital market's status has been elevated in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation. The ongoing optimization of the market's capital ecosystem lays a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the capital market.
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