According to Zhitong Finance APP, in the morning session of October 14, shares of DUIBA (01753) surged as much as 48% on heavy volume at their peak. This was not a simple earnings disclosure, but confirmation of a profitability inflection point.
The rally stemmed from a voluntary announcement issued by the company that morning: Duiba's AI short-drama business recorded net profit for three consecutive months in July, August, and September, with new all-platform viewership exceeding 45.8 billion in the third quarter, more than nine times the first-half total of 5 billion.
Look first at two sets of hard data. On viewership: 6.8 billion in July, 12.6 billion in August, and 26.4 billion in September, with month-over-month growth exceeding 100% for three consecutive months, totaling 45.8 billion in the third quarter, nine times the first-half total. The number of breakout dramas surpassing 100 million views rose from 22 in July to 32 in September, with the highest breakout rate reaching 5.7%, while the industry average for surpassing 100 million views is only about 0.47% — Duiba stands at more than 10 times the industry average. On profitability: net profit was recorded for three consecutive months in July, August, and September. Duiba's management said during its August interim report that "economies of scale will gradually materialize," and within less than two months, that judgment has come to pass.
Achieving profitability alongside a ninefold increase in viewership shows this is not growth piled up by burning cash to buy traffic, but rather the result of cost-structure optimization under a full-chain AI production model: about 80% of production steps are generated with one click through a workflow platform, a single person's monthly output capacity steadily reaches three 70-minute long dramas, and self-developed screenwriter Agents boost per-capita efficiency by roughly fivefold. Capacity expansion no longer depends on linear headcount growth, and marginal costs are systematically driven down.
In fact, the market's perception of Duiba remains stuck at "a company doing loyalty-point SaaS that跨界ed into short dramas." But the third-quarter report reveals a clearer positioning: an AI-Native content platform. Its core competitiveness is not any single breakout drama, but an AI workflow platform and self-developed Agent matrix covering the entire process from "scriptwriting—production—distribution—commercialization." This system turns content production from "driven by individual talent" into "systematized and replicable," then continuously iterates through a data loop of "production—distribution—feedback—optimization." A 5.7% breakout rate is not luck; it is the output of systematic capability.
More critically, this capability is being replicated in two directions. Overseas, locally produced dramas have been released on TikTok and YouTube, and a self-developed overseas theater App is planned for launch in the fourth quarter. On the WeChat Green Bubble side, according to a management exchange summary from Guosen Securities dated October 12, the company has already carried out relevant efforts and paired them with video-account traffic boosting and heating, with significant growth.
If the market is still pricing Duiba using the old framework of a "loss-making SaaS company," Duiba's fundamentals have already switched lanes. On the net asset dimension, as of the 2026 interim report, Duiba's net assets per share were about 1.09 yuan (about HK$1.2), and the current share price corresponds to a PB of less than 0.6 times — the share price is below net assets per share, meaning the market has not paid any premium for the AI short-drama business.
On the peer valuation dimension, A-share short-drama concept stocks generally enjoy high valuations: Chinese Online has a PS of about 11 times, Kunlun Wanwei about 10 times, and Zhangyue Technology about 3 times. Duiba, based on full-year 2026 revenue of 1.2 billion yuan and a current market value of about HK$1 billion, has a PS of less than 1 time. Even using the most conservative estimate of 2 times PS, the corresponding market value would be about HK$2.4 billion, still leaving room to double from the current level.
On the earnings expectation dimension, according to the Guosen Securities exchange summary, Duiba's first half of 2026 was suppressed by investment in short-drama infrastructure and business expansion, with group gross margin of 17.1% and net margin of -5.8%. But based on single-month revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in June 2026 and the latest announcement confirming profitability in the third-quarter AI short-drama business, Duiba's second-half 2026 revenue is expected to be no less than 800 million yuan, with full-year revenue no less than 1.2 billion yuan, and the full year is expected to break even or be profitable.
In other words, now is the time to buy, at "below net asset value plus a PS of less than 1 time," an AI content platform that has been profitable for three consecutive months and is expected to deliver profits at a single-digit PE in 2027 — the concept phase has passed, the performance phase has just arrived, yet the valuation is still stuck at the starting point.
In summary, Duiba's story has moved from the concept of "the first AI short-drama stock" to the financial statements of "three consecutive months of profitability." The sharp rally in the share price on October 14 was the market's first confirmation of the profitability inflection point. But the real re-rating may have only just begun. When the market switches from "concept speculation" to "performance-based pricing," for an AI content platform with a PB of less than 0.6 times, a PS of less than 1 time, consecutive profitability, and overseas and Green Bubble channels that are scaling up, with the App short-drama alliance expanding monetization in the second half, value return is only a matter of time.
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