As a crucial and reliable energy supply method for extraterrestrial vehicles, space photovoltaics are poised to benefit from the global commercial space boom. According to the firm's calculations, existing low-Earth orbit satellite plans are expected to generate nearly 10GW of space photovoltaic demand in the future. Space photovoltaics have now entered an active phase of industrial exploration, with equipment manufacturers in the early industrialization stage set to benefit first; some photovoltaic equipment makers are actively collaborating with downstream clients to explore process routes. Subsequently, the firm advises focusing on: (1) HJT/Perovskite equipment suppliers; and (2) other segments of the photovoltaic industry.
Reusable technology has led to a sharp decline in launch costs, presenting a golden development opportunity for space photovoltaics. In recent years, with the successful exploration of reusable rocket technology by companies like SpaceX, rocket launch costs have rapidly decreased, leading to increasingly frequent global commercial space activities. As a vital and reliable energy supply method for extraterrestrial vehicles, space photovoltaics are expected to benefit from this global commercial space fervor.
The US-China commercial space race is accelerating, with low-orbit communication satellites driving short-term demand for solar arrays. Under ITU rules, low-orbit resources are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis, making space resources a new battleground for major powers. The United States, leveraging SpaceX's first-mover advantage, currently holds a leading position in low-orbit communication satellites. According to China.com, China submitted applications to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in December 2025 for frequency and orbital resources for a total of 203,000 satellites, aiming to secure valuable orbital resources. Based on the firm's calculations, existing low-orbit satellite plans are expected to generate nearly 10GW of space photovoltaic demand in the future.
AI giants are fiercely competing, and "computing power in space" has become a consensus. Space computing power refers to the deployment of data centers in space orbit to solve energy and space constraints. According to the "White Paper: Why we should train AI in Space" (by Ezra Feilden et al.), the estimated total cost of deploying a 40MW AI data center in space operating for 10 years is $8.2 million, representing a 95% reduction compared to ground-based deployment. Overseas AI giants like Google and Amazon have disclosed plans related to deploying computing power in space, while the domestic industry is also actively promoting the construction of "space-based computing for terrestrial data." Driven by the consensus on "computing power in space," space photovoltaics, as the primary energy supply form, are expected to benefit significantly. According to a personal tweet by Elon Musk, there are plans to launch 100GW of AI computing power satellites into orbit annually in the future.
Gallium arsenide is currently the mainstream choice, space data centers may adopt silicon-based batteries, and long-term attention should be paid to perovskite technology breakthroughs. In terms of technology routes: (1) Gallium arsenide is the current mainstream choice for space photovoltaics, offering excellent performance but facing challenges of high cost and limited raw material availability; it is expected to be used in high-end scenarios in the future. (2) Heterojunction (HJT) technology is closer to the theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon and offers advantages such as simpler processes and higher yield, with faster industrialization progress; it is expected to be among the first applied to photovoltaic needs like computing satellites. (3) Perovskite/tandem cells have shown some application potential in experiments, but large-scale application in the short term remains to be observed due to a lack of practical empirical data and a relatively immature industry chain. However, given their high specific power, low cost, and high flexibility, they are expected to become the preferred choice for space photovoltaics in the future.
Risks include the commercial space industry's development falling short of expectations; uncertainty in space photovoltaic technology routes; and space computing power investment and application demand not meeting expectations.
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