On Monday, July 13th, the spot gold price experienced a significant decline for the second consecutive trading day, closing at $4,000.80 per ounce with a drop nearing 3%. During the session, it even touched the lowest point since July 1st at $3,986.51. This movement starkly contrasts with the previous pattern of high-level consolidation, with the core driver being the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Specifically, the U.S. reinstatement of a maritime blockade on Iran directly ignited concerns in the global energy market, which subsequently transmitted to monetary policy expectations.
On Monday, U.S. President Trump formally notified Congress that the United States had re-entered a phase of military action against Iran, restarting the 60-day period stipulated by the War Powers Resolution. Concurrently, Trump not only threatened to strike Iran's most fortified underground nuclear facilities but also announced that the U.S. would impose a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, effective from 4:00 AM Beijing Time on July 15th.
The latest report from the U.S. news website Axios on Monday, July 13th, stated that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to deliver a primetime address from the White House on Thursday evening. Trump's advisors indicated that the renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran will be a significant part of the speech. As tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, Trump is likely to update the American public on the latest military and diplomatic developments.
Technical Analysis and Trading Outlook for Gold
From a daily chart perspective, gold has effectively broken below key short-term moving averages such as the 5-day and 10-day lines. The moving average system is exhibiting a bearish alignment and continues to diverge downwards, forming a strong resistance pattern against the gold price. The MACD indicator shows its dual lines in a death cross and diverging downward, with the green histogram expanding continuously, indicating robust bearish momentum.
Looking at the 4-hour cycle, the gold price is trading below the short-term moving averages. The MACD indicator's lines are in a death cross and diverging downward, with the green histogram expanding, further confirming strong bearish momentum. The RSI is positioned around 40, suggesting that short-term bears are clearly in a dominant position. Overall, the recommended strategy for gold trading tonight is to sell on rallies.
Gold Trading Strategy
Short Position Strategy: Consider selling in the range of 4045-4047, with a stop-loss at 4069, targeting around 3992.
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