From a current technical analysis perspective, the medium to long-term bearish trend for gold remains clear.
On the daily chart, the gold price continues to be constrained by dual resistance from the middle Bollinger Band and the moving averages above, with the overall downtrend still solid. There remains a possibility for the market to continue setting new, lower stage lows.
It is worth noting, however, that the various support levels below are relatively clear. The first key support lies at 3900, with the second support at 3850. Should bearish momentum concentrate and release further, the ultimate downside target could potentially extend to the 3750 low.
Currently, short-term resistance above is gradually shifting lower alongside the price action. The core short-term resistance zone is primarily concentrated near the 4050-4065 area, while the medium-term pivotal level remains at the 4100 mark.
This evening's ADP employment data is likely to further drive the gold price to test these two key resistance areas. However, relying solely on the technical levels identified from current short-term analysis can only serve as a supplementary reference, as news-driven stimuli could significantly alter the intensity of the technical resistance above.
For the evening session, watch the hourly chart moving average band resistance near the 4010-15 area. Below, initial focus is on the lower boundary of the range near 3970, with the main support potentially at the short-term trendline support near 3930.
Consider short positions on a gold rebound to 4050-4055, with a stop-loss at 4070, targeting 4020-4000. Alternatively, consider long positions at 3950-3960, with a stop-loss at 3930, targeting 4000-4020.
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