On July 15th, COMEX gold prices initially declined before rising, closing at $4066.90 per ounce, marking a slight decrease of 0.07%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened higher, then weakened quickly, but recovered the losses by the close, finishing at 887.42 yuan per gram, a marginal gain of 0.03%.
Key Data Point Impact
Wednesday's data revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest decline since April 2025, contrasting with market expectations for no change. The May figure was revised down to a 0.6% increase from the previously reported 1.1%. Year-on-year, June PPI rose 5.5%, lower than May's 6.0%. This unexpected drop in producer prices provides further evidence that US inflationary pressures were easing prior to the recent escalation of Middle East conflicts. The resulting cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes offers some support to gold prices. However, data from Jin10 indicates that Federal Reserve Chair Wash informed US lawmakers that the Fed has not yet fulfilled its mandate of maintaining price stability, while declining to specify how or when it would address the issue. This stance may temper the market's positive reaction to the PPI data.
Geopolitical Tensions
On the geopolitical front, tensions between the US and Iran continue to intensify with no signs of abatement. According to Reuters, the US launched strikes on Iranian coastal defense facilities and missile bases on Wednesday after re-imposing a maritime blockade on Iranian ports. Iran, in response, has threatened to cut off more regional energy exports, stating it is engaged in a "war for national survival" with the United States. Under these escalating circumstances, market risk appetite is likely to decline further. The primary trend for gold may therefore be one of weakness interspersed with periods of recovery.
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