In the early hours of March 23, former President Trump announced on social media that he would postpone strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. Just before this news broke, a surge of unusual trading activity occurred in off-hours markets. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, within just a few minutes, over $800 million worth of U.S. and international crude oil futures contracts were settled.
Following Trump's change in stance, U.S. crude oil prices plummeted by as much as 13%, allowing traders who had accurately predicted the move to profit. Trading records reviewed by media show that, based on volume-weighted average prices, at least five institutions made gains of $5 million or more that day through trading in crude oil futures.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has now initiated an investigation into this abnormal surge in trading volume. Sources familiar with the matter reveal that the futures market regulator is examining whether any insiders had prior knowledge of Trump's announcement and used that inside information for trading or leaked it for profit. According to reviewed documents and insiders, the CFTC's investigation is focusing on at least three institutions.
Documents indicate that London-based investment firm Cubist Systematic Strategies profited approximately $5 million from the relevant trades, Forza Capital netted around $10 million, and Totsa, the trading subsidiary of French energy giant TotalEnergies, gained about $200,000.
These institutions have not been accused of any wrongdoing at this stage, and it remains unclear why the CFTC has singled them out for scrutiny.
Investigators are delving into this obscure and secretive market segment, where trading is largely algorithm-driven, making it difficult to discern the true motives behind individual trades and blurring the line between luck and professional judgment.
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