Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report indicating that the domestic construction machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, while export conditions are showing structural improvements. As counter-cyclical policies gradually take effect, industry sentiment is expected to continue improving. With the implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal measures and the industry's upward cycle, the growth rate of domestic excavator sales is projected to further rebound. Leading companies with well-established overseas operations are gradually entering a harvest period, and industry operating leverage is anticipated to be progressively released. Key views from Guotai Haitong are as follows:
Both domestic and export sales maintained rapid growth. In March 2026, sales of various types of excavators reached 37,402 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Domestic sales accounted for 24,101 units (including 43 electric excavators), up 23.5% year-on-year, while exports totaled 13,301 units (including 33 electric excavators), rising 32% year-on-year. From January to March 2026, total excavator sales reached 73,336 units, an increase of 19.5% compared to the same period last year. Domestic sales amounted to 39,579 units (including 86 electric excavators), up 8.25% year-on-year, while exports reached 33,757 units (including 60 electric excavators), growing 36.1% year-on-year.
Average operating hours increased month-on-month but declined year-on-year. In March 2026, the average monthly operating hours for major construction machinery products were 70.5 hours, down 21.8% year-on-year but up 28% month-on-month. Specific figures include: excavators at 63.9 hours; loaders at 84.9 hours; truck cranes at 75.3 hours; crawler cranes at 67.8 hours; tower cranes at 39.3 hours; road rollers at 14.5 hours; pavers at 12.8 hours; rotary drilling rigs at 50.6 hours; off-highway mining dump trucks at 146 hours; concrete pump trucks at 25.8 hours; concrete mixer trucks at 36 hours; and forklifts at 104 hours.
Operating rates increased month-on-month but declined year-on-year. In March 2026, the average monthly operating rate for major construction machinery products was 50.5%, down 10.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 14.6 percentage points month-on-month. Specific rates include: excavators at 54.9%; loaders at 49.7%; truck cranes at 53.5%; crawler cranes at 46.7%; tower cranes at 34.3%; road rollers at 22.3%; pavers at 21.8%; rotary drilling rigs at 32.8%; off-highway mining dump trucks at 45.2%; concrete pump trucks at 23.6%; concrete mixer trucks at 17.1%; and forklifts at 66.4%.
Risk warnings include fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions and market demand, intensifying trade frictions, increased market competition, and a decline in overseas demand.
Comments