December 15 – Last Friday, conflicting signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials triggered profit-taking and repricing in the markets, causing gold prices to retreat sharply after an earlier rally, with intraday swings nearing $100. Despite this, the precious metal still closed the week with gains. Market attention now shifts to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report due December 16, which will include delayed October and November data due to the government shutdown, potentially offering clearer signals on the economy and employment. Additionally, traders will monitor Fed officials' remarks for clues on policy expectations and the interest rate trajectory.
Monday, December 15 – Recent hawk-dove divisions within the Fed have shaken the market's earlier unanimous expectations for easing, undermining the basis for another sharp gold rally. However, despite policy uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to provide solid safe-haven support for gold.
Key developments include stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks, with the U.S. expressing "disappointment" over Kyiv's refusal to sign a peace plan, while the EU moves to indefinitely freeze Russian central bank assets, raising risks of prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia persist without a ceasefire agreement, and a major terrorist attack struck Sydney, Australia. These events collectively sustain safe-haven flows, keeping short-term sentiment tilted bullish for gold.
Technically, gold opened with modest gains today, with immediate resistance at 4340-30. A rejection here could lead to consolidation ahead of Tuesday's Nonfarm data for directional cues. Conversely, a sustained break above 4340 would negate Friday's pullback, potentially reigniting bullish momentum – though such volatility may complicate trading strategies. A consolidation phase between 4340-30 resistance and 4300-90 support would represent a technically and fundamentally healthy pause.
In summary, stark Fed divisions and mixed geopolitical drivers have shifted gold markets from one-way bets to two-way plays. After recent extreme moves, prices likely need digestion time, with high-range oscillation expected before this week's key data releases. The medium-term trend hinges entirely on Tuesday's Nonfarm and Thursday's CPI reports, which will determine whether "recession fears" or "sticky inflation" dominate the U.S. narrative – ultimately dictating gold's next major move.
Today's trading strategy suggests: Gold: Sell at 4330-32, stop-loss at 4340, targeting 4300-80. A firm break above 4340 warrants closing shorts for longs toward 4360-80.
Key economic events for Monday, December 15, 2025: 21:30 U.S. December NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 22:30 Fed Governor Milan speech 23:00 U.S. December NAHB Housing Market Index 23:30 Fed's Williams speaks on economic outlook
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