After declining for two consecutive trading sessions, the share price of Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002865.SZ) rebounded on January 22, once again hitting the daily limit-up. Since December 12, 2025, the stock has surged by over 140% in just over a month.
Bolstered by the popular "space photovoltaic" theme and a 30 million yuan investment in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xingyi Xinneng"), Drinda has staged a theme-driven stock price feast. Behind this capital frenzy lies the reality that the investment target has yet to commence substantive operations and holds no orders in hand, making it difficult to contribute profit support in the short term. Meanwhile, as the stock price soared, the controlling shareholder precisely unveiled a reduction plan aiming to cash out at a high point.
Contrasting the stock's dance is the deteriorating performance foundation of Drinda. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a massive Q4 loss dragging down the overall performance. Although overseas business contributes over half of the revenue, it has failed to effectively offset the overall losses caused by domestic market weakness. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products and uncertainties surrounding overseas production capacity布局 further exacerbate the company's fundamental challenges.
Since December 12, 2025, Drinda's A-share price initiated a sharp upward trend, recording multiple limit-ups and hitting a阶段性 high since 2024 during intraday trading on January 19, while its H-share also performed strongly.
Following the狂欢, the stock price underwent corrections on January 20 and 21. As of press time on January 22, it was quoted at 90.4 yuan per share, securing a limit-up, with a cumulative increase exceeding 140% since December 12, 2025.
The core driver of this stock price狂欢 is the热门 concept of "space photovoltaic." Drinda's investment in Xingyi Xinneng gave this concept tangible substance. On January 13, Drinda signed a "Capital Increase Agreement" and "Shareholders' Agreement" with Xingyi Xinneng and its founding team and original shareholders, among other relevant parties. The company plans to invest 30 million yuan in cash to subscribe to 461,500 yuan of newly increased registered capital in Xingyi Xinneng, acquiring a 16.67% equity stake.
Drinda stated that this collaboration has synergistic effects with its existing photovoltaic main business, potentially broadening the application scenarios for its products, and aiding the company's strategic extension from terrestrial photovoltaics to space photovoltaics, aligning with its long-term strategic investment plan.
However, a rational perspective is necessary as this industry remains in its early developmental stages. Drinda cautioned that, despite years of deep involvement in photovoltaic cell technology R&D, it currently lacks technical积累 in space scenario adaptation capabilities and aerospace resource integration. This external investment faces multiple technical uncertainties, including risks of R&D falling short of expectations and uncertainties in the technological path.
From a business perspective, Xingyi Xinneng's related operations have not yet commenced substantive activities and it holds no orders. The maturity of its business model and the progress of market expansion both carry uncertainties. This implies that whether space photovoltaics can deliver actual performance contributions for Drinda仍需时间验证, and it may be difficult to translate into profit support in the short term.
It was noted that as the stock price surged, Drinda's controlling shareholder, Hainan Jindi Technology Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter "Jindi Technology"), unveiled a reduction plan on January 12, opting to cash out at high levels.
The announcement revealed that Jindi Technology plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 8.7254 million shares via集中竞价 or block trades, representing 3% of the company's total shares excluding those in the repurchase专用 account. Based on the closing price on January 12, the controlling shareholder could cash out approximately 635 million yuan.
Yang Renyuan, Lu Xiaohong, Lu Huifen, and nine other members of the Yang family are collectively the actual controllers of Drinda. Equity穿透 shows that Jindi Technology is 80% owned by Hainan Yangshi Family Technology Investment Co., Ltd. This reduction本质上 represents a collective cash-out行动 by the Yang family.
Contrary to the stock's rise, Drinda's operational performance has worsened. According to the 2025 performance forecast, Drinda expects a full-year net profit attributable to shareholders loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, and a net profit loss after deducting non-recurring items of 1.4 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, with both losses widening compared to 2024.
Drinda stated that while global photovoltaic installations continue to grow rapidly, with particularly strong demand for photovoltaic cells in overseas markets, the industry's supply-demand imbalance remains at the bottom of the cycle. Coupled with factors like ineffective price transmission along the main industry chain, the company faces operational pressure, resulting in阶段性 losses. Additionally, provisions for asset impairment also impacted the current period's performance.
The weak performance was already evident in the first three quarters of 2025. Drinda reported revenue of 5.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.72%, primarily due to declines in shipment volume and selling prices. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 419 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.48% year-on-year.
Breaking down by quarter, Drinda reported net profit losses attributable to shareholders of 106 million yuan, 158 million yuan, and 155 million yuan in Q1 to Q3 of 2025, respectively. Estimates based on the 2025 performance forecast indicate that the Q4 net profit loss attributable to shareholders ranged from 781 million to 1.081 billion yuan, severely dragging down the full-year performance.
The sharp decline in Q4 2025 performance is related to rising product costs. Silver paste is a key raw material for photovoltaic cells, and silver constitutes a significant portion of the paste. The spot price of silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange surged from 7,600 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2025 to 23,688 yuan per kilogram by year-end, significantly increasing the production costs of cells and modules. Media reports suggested this alone increased the cost per watt of cells by at least 0.16 yuan.
LONGi Green Energy Technology also mentioned in its 2025 performance forecast that the significant increase in silver paste and silicon material costs in Q4 2025 notably raised the costs of wafers, cells, and modules, further pressuring corporate operations.
Amid slowing domestic demand growth and price war pressures, Drinda has attempted to break through via a global strategy. The company disclosed in its performance forecast that overseas sales now account for over 50% of revenue, making it a core supplier of photovoltaic cells in overseas regions.
This strategic adjustment has shown results in the revenue structure. In 2023, Drinda's overseas revenue占比 was only 4.69%, but by the end of the first half of 2025, it had reached 51.87%. Correspondingly, the domestic market's revenue share decreased from 95.31% to 48.13%.
To consolidate its advantage in overseas markets, Drinda is accelerating the localization of its overseas production capacity. The company has successively built a 14GW photovoltaic cell production base in Vietnam, initiated a 5GW high-efficiency cell production base project in Oman, and signed strategic cooperation agreements with local module customers in Turkey while actively promoting capacity construction.
On the profit front, in the first half of 2025, the gross profit margin in the domestic market was -0.78%, declining year-on-year,陷入 the dilemma of selling more at a greater loss. In contrast, the gross profit margin in overseas markets increased against the trend by 2.83 percentage points year-on-year to 4.5%, although it still decreased from 6.37% at the end of 2024. Overseas markets require significant short-term investment and have long回报 cycles; despite contributing over half the revenue, they still struggle to cover overall losses.
It is worth noting that as the window for canceling the export tax rebate policy approaches, the company's overseas market will face new cost pressures. Effective April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate subsidy for photovoltaic and other products will be canceled. Industry estimates suggest that canceling the 9% export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the cost of photovoltaic export products by 0.06-0.07 yuan per watt.
For Drinda, overseas customers might turn to other suppliers with cost advantages or local production capacity due to rising procurement costs. If the company cannot effectively pass on the costs or maintain price competitiveness, its overseas market share could be eroded.
More严峻的是, uncertainties surrounding the construction of overseas production capacity further intensify operational risks. Drinda stated in its Q3 2025 report that the complex and volatile international trade situation and tariff policies have impacted the progress of overseas investments, and the company will prudently advance the originally planned 5GW high-efficiency cell production base project in Oman.
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