Trump 2.0: One Year In - The Fracturing of America's Rural Voters

Deep News01-20

After turning 19, Myne chose to "escape" his rural hometown in Kentucky. Six years have passed in the blink of an eye; he now works a part-time night security job in Cincinnati, Ohio, while taking university courses online. To maintain a sense of financial stability, Myne is extremely careful with his spending. "I expect this lifestyle to continue for several more decades," he stated.

Born in 2001, Myne belongs to "Generation Z," those born in the late 1990s and early 21st century, and he is surrounded mostly by Republican supporters. Reflecting on the past two elections, he admitted to making choices he now regrets: in 2020, he voted for candidate Donald Trump, but in 2024, he switched his support to former Vice President Kamala Harris. Today, Myne has transitioned to identifying as an independent voter and eagerly anticipates the rise of a new generation of political forces.

Elna, from Michigan, represents the rural voters who remain steadfast Trump supporters, partly because she appreciates Trump's "authenticity" and his opposition to "Obamacare." Conversely, Allen, another rural voter from a "blue state" (indicating higher Democratic support), reported that Trump's "Big and Beautiful" act cut Medicaid programs, creating divisions within his village.

These young individuals paint a complex social picture of America's vast rural landscape. While Myne's lack of support for Trump might be an isolated case, it still reflects a trend that should alarm the Republican party. A joint poll released last December by NPR, PBS, and Marist College showed that 49% of rural residents disapproved of Trump's performance on the economy, higher than the 43% who approved.

By the next presidential election, Generation Z and Millennial voters are expected to comprise more than half of the total electorate. Economic hardships are fueling increasing dissatisfaction with current political figures among young rural Americans like Myne. As Trump marks one year into his second term, their voices offer a glimpse into the fragmented public opinion within the "Trump Belt" (areas with long-standing, stable support for Trump-style populist conservatism).

"Why haven't prices come down yet?" "I live in what's called the 'Trump Belt'," Myne said.

How to describe Gray Town? Faced with this question, he hesitated for a moment: "Probably with a 'Southern accent' or 'country accent' like me. If you're a girl from the country, you might become a nurse or a teacher. Girls there marry early, have many children, and most likely won't become journalists."

When he was three years old, his drug-addicted father fell asleep at the wheel, nearly costing Myne his life. After that, Myne was raised by his mother and aunt, living with his cousin. He believes growing up in an environment predominantly populated by women was beneficial, "I also learned how to interact with women and respect others."

Due to difficult economic transitions and a lack of industrial diversity, employment options in Gray Town are limited. The median household income there is just $36,324, far below the Kentucky average of $62,417. Several of Myne's friends obtained Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDLs) specifically to work as drivers for warehouses and factories. Others choose to work at Walmart, fast-food restaurants, or schools for meager wages. It was only a year ago that a new Amazon fulfillment center opened within a 20-minute drive of Gray Town, providing some job opportunities for locals.

A wealthy pair of brothers, driving a Tesla Cybertruck, recently moved to Gray Town and have gained control over almost all the local real estate. "They charge whatever they want, don't care about the ordinary people who've lived here their whole lives, and just want to attract even wealthier people to move in," Myne said.

Very few of Myne's peers have attended college. Data shows that only about 13.6% of adults aged 25 and older in the area hold a bachelor's degree or higher, less than half the state average. Even the minority who do go to college cannot guarantee they will complete their studies. Furthermore, parents in the small town often discourage their children from pursuing higher education, citing it as "not worth it and too expensive." But Myne finds this reasoning "untenable" because college graduates typically earn more. "It's essentially a political issue. Deep down, they think college is liberal territory."

Recreational activities for villagers are scarce, limited to shopping at Walmart or drinking. Myne has many peers who "drink heavily," frequenting the same bar almost every weekend, some going twice a week. The town has a population of less than two thousand but boasts two bars.

"This place is depressing; there's nothing to do," Myne stated bluntly, noting that the result is people falling into depression and then turning to drugs. "Once you get tired of alcohol, you move on to harder drugs, even mixing them."

After a high school party, Myne once saw someone openly injecting heroin in a car. "If someone loses control of their emotions or causes trouble everywhere, they're probably on drugs. They wander the streets, get arrested by the police, then get released, and the cycle repeats until they die."

Returning to Gray Town is only an occasional thought for Myne. He is currently majoring in sports teaching. If he could secure a position as athletic director or coach at his old high school, or, failing that, as a teacher, he wouldn't be opposed to "returning" to Gray Town. However, "unless there's an irresistible reason, I wouldn't move back. If I had children, I wouldn't want them growing up in a drug-filled environment. I'd want to take them to the zoo, not have to drive an hour and a half somewhere else every time we want to do something."

After transferring to Eastern Kentucky University, Myne takes online courses while working a night security job in Cincinnati, less than a three-hour drive from his hometown. Working night shifts, sleeping during the day, cooking, playing video games... Myne leads a monotonous life. With an annual income of $30,000, he also splits the $2,000 monthly rent with his cousin; he paid $900 last month and needs to save, leaving little disposable income. "I went out to eat at a restaurant two weeks ago; that was a rare moment that made me happy," he said with a laugh.

Like many young Americans, Myne faces the harsh reality of soaring prices. He typically buys frozen pizza, chicken nuggets, and snacks from the supermarket and has noticed his grocery bill increasing in recent years, now spending between $40 and $50 per week. "I know I should eat healthier, but healthy food is sometimes really more expensive, so I just eat less of it. I drink more water to try and be healthier."

In 2020, voting in his first presidential election, Myne chose Trump. It was during the COVID-19 pandemic, and having just graduated high school, he admitted he was only concerned about sports and hanging out back home, with little understanding of politics. "He relaxed pandemic controls, allowing me to live in another state, and I even received a few weeks of stimulus checks. When he first started running, I thought: 'Wow, he's attacking everyone.' He's the kind of person who unintentionally creates funny moments; I think a lot of people like him for that."

Four years later, "affordability" became a major focus of the election campaign. A pre-election survey by Gallup showed the economy ranked first among 22 issues, with a significant 52% of voters stating a candidate's stance on the economy would be "extremely important" to their vote—the only issue to receive such a rating from over half the electorate. Another 38% considered the economy "very important," meaning nine out of ten voters were likely to treat the economy as a key factor.

However, Myne ultimately chose the Democratic candidate, reasoning that Harris seemed "more presidential" and had more concrete plans for the economy. In his view, Trump was not the "ideal presidential image," and he disliked Trump's tone when talking about women and his divisive rhetoric.

"Harris is younger, and I'm not opposed to a female president. Actually, she presented her own plans for healthcare and controlling prices, and she doesn't post on Twitter every day. Trump just says 'I'm going to bring prices down,' but where is the plan? No matter how much I try to understand or ask his supporters, they can't give me a concrete plan," Myne said.

Now one year into Trump's second term, Myne hasn't personally experienced effective control over prices. His mother, a Republican supporter, has also recently become very dissatisfied with Trump: "Why haven't prices come down yet?" Myne noted that the only thing that has gotten cheaper is gasoline. "Gasoline dropped by a few cents, but rent and living expenses haven't gotten cheaper. I'm spending almost the same on groceries as I did a year or two ago. I'm still desperately saving for retirement; not having money is a terrifying thing."

"A Sense of Being a Real Person" If Myne represents the wavering rural "base voters," then Elna exemplifies those rural voters who remain firmly in Trump's camp.

A voter survey by the Associated Press indicated that in the 2024 election, Trump gained support across all community types. In rural areas and small towns, he secured 63% of the vote, up from 60% in 2020. From a broader historical perspective, the Republican party has gradually dominated rural politics over the past 40 years. Nicholas Jacobs, a political scientist at Colby College, suggests that rural identity encompasses many similar attitudes and beliefs, such as the perception that rural communities are culturally disparaged and that their poverty is a result of government policies.

Elna is Romanian, and her husband is from the village of Remus, Michigan. They met in Germany, and Elna moved to Michigan with her husband in 1998. To integrate, she spent six months learning basic English, obtained a driver's license, and worked on a large farm.

Today, there are no factories left in Remus; a cheese factory that had operated for over 50 years closed two years ago. "This is purely a rural area, and I don't think any factories will ever come here because the locals won't sell land for them to be built," Elna explained, noting that many villagers choose to work in nearby Mount Pleasant or Grand Rapids. If you include backyard vegetable gardening and chicken raising, about sixty percent of villagers are engaged in small-scale agricultural activities. The rest, due to busy work schedules and long commutes, prefer not to bother and buy their produce directly from the market.

Sociology professors Tim Slack of Louisiana State University and Shannon M. Monnat of Syracuse University have pointed out that the traditional external perception of farmers relying primarily on agriculture does not match reality. In fact, the most significant source of employment in rural America today is manufacturing, whose share in rural employment and income structure even exceeds that in cities.

Precisely because of this, "deindustrialization"—the decades-long trend of losing manufacturing jobs—has hit rural America particularly hard. Unlike major metropolitan areas with diverse job markets, rural communities often rely on just a few core employers. When a local factory shuts down, the entire community's economy suffers a severe blow. Currently, the largest proportion of employment in rural America is concentrated in the service sector, including retail, food services, home health care, and hospitality. These jobs typically offer low wages, limited benefits, and unstable hours, making it difficult for many rural families to maintain a stable economic situation.

The town's population hasn't changed much over the years, but Elna has recently noticed young people moving back, seeing significantly more children in the grocery store. She believes urban insecurity might be a factor, but the main reason is that grandparents can help with childcare. "Daycare is very expensive now. I have friends spending $300 a week on daycare, that's $1,200 a month, which is a significant amount."

Elna is one of many Trump supporters. Her support isn't merely following the crowd; it began during Trump's era as a political outsider and has persisted through the ups and downs of his career. From The Oprah Winfrey Show, the reality TV show *The Apprentice*, to the Miss Universe pageant, Elna sees Trump as a sharply defined, blunt-speaking "real person," unlike traditional politicians who are skilled performers but lack tangible achievements.

Elna believes former President Obama "completely messed up" the American healthcare system, for instance, by forcing people to buy health insurance. "If your job doesn't provide insurance, you have to pay $1,500 per person per month. Who has that kind of money? And for those who simply couldn't afford insurance, they were fined $600."

The core of "Obamacare" is the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, signed into law by Obama in 2010. This was America's first attempt to systematically reform the private health insurance market using government regulations without establishing a universal public healthcare system. While the act reduced the number of uninsured Americans, it also faced substantial criticism.

Because the law imposed stricter regulations on insurance companies, many insurers discontinued previous plans, forcing some policyholders to switch plans, often to more expensive options. Some critics argued that Obamacare provided health insurance to many low-income individuals by effectively subsidizing the poor with money from other policyholders, and that overemphasizing fairness while neglecting efficiency would lead the healthcare system into an unsustainable financial predicament.

At that time, Elna was at a low point in her life; divorced and raising her young son alone, her bi-weekly take-home pay was about $400 to $450, and she still had to pay a significant insurance premium. "What do you think you can do with that money? Thankfully, instant noodles were cheap back then, and we ate a lot of potatoes and such; I managed to make edible meals at very low cost. That's why I always say Obama didn't care about us low-income people."

In 2017, shortly after taking office for the first time, Trump issued an executive order aimed at dismantling various components of the Obamacare policy. That year, a tax reform initiated by Republican lawmakers repealed the "individual mandate" (the most controversial policy within Obamacare, which penalized individuals without health insurance), allowed the sale of private insurance exempt from certain Obamacare regulations, and instituted work requirements for receiving Medicaid benefits.

Elna believes that after taking office, Trump legitimized many things, provided subsidies and support to farmers, and improved life for ordinary people. In her view, Trump's "America First" and "Make America Great Again" slogans represent true leadership. "America has been in decline for a long time, and no one really cared about it. People want a decent life, safety, and stability. A leader's duty is to put their people first; people want to feel secure from their leader."

"Both Parties Have Failed Rural America" Rural America is home to 46 million people, with communities varying greatly in appearance, economic development, and living standards. One year into Trump's second term, the impact on different rural communities has also varied.

Unlike Myne and Elna, 24-year-old Allen hails from New York State, which has leaned Democratic for nearly 25 years, representing a different part of the political spectrum. Allen's hometown is West Falls village, part of the Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), a small village within the town of Aurora in Erie County. A ten-minute drive from West Falls leads to East Aurora village, home to the headquarters of the technology engineering firm Moog and the toy manufacturer Fisher-Price.

Many residents of West Falls work at Fisher-Price and Moog, belonging to the white-collar class of engineers and technicians. Many of Allen's peers work in sales or as interns at Moog or Fisher-Price, learning about the industries their parents worked in. In recent years, the growth of the healthcare sector in Buffalo has attracted numerous doctors, many of whom have moved with their families to nearby West Falls, some becoming Allen's neighbors.

After graduating from a biomedical engineering school in Louisiana, Allen began his career at the Department of Veterans Affairs before moving to Buffalo to work as a salesperson. At the beginning of 2025, Allen moved back to his hometown because it offered "decent income, low housing costs, and less life pressure."

The median home price in West Falls is approximately $295,000, compared to the national median price for newly sold homes of around $392,000. If he moved to New York City, Allen's salary might increase from his current $60,000 to $100,000, but his cost of living would skyrocket, jumping from about $1,000 per month to over $5,000.

However, since Trump's return to office, Allen has felt increased financial pressure because his health insurance costs are set to rise significantly in the new year. Starting January 1, 2026, the enhanced subsidies designed to lower premium costs for enrollees under the Affordable Care Act are set to expire. It is estimated that over 20 million Americans will face higher health insurance costs at the start of 2026. "It's going from $1,400 per month in 2025 to $2,800 this year. That price is completely unaffordable, and I've had to give up health insurance altogether, just hoping I stay healthy," Allen said.

The subsidies Allen referred to were policies introduced by the Biden administration in 2021. Initially a temporary pandemic relief measure, the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies were later extended by Democrats, with the expiration pushed to early 2026. After the subsidy expansion, some low-income individuals could enroll with "zero premium" costs; for higher-income enrollees, premium spending was capped at 8.5% of income, and the subsidy coverage for middle-income families was also expanded.

Low-income groups in West Falls village and families with disabled children generally benefit from the Medicaid program, but the "Big and Beautiful" act cut funding for the program, angering some villagers towards Trump. "The owner of a local car wash publicly supported Trump on social media, and after some people found out, they stopped patronizing the car wash. This is the kind of problem that stems from the two-party system; if you support one party, you almost immediately alienate another part of your community," Allen said.

With midterm elections approaching, the Democratic party, long at a disadvantage in rural areas, is attempting to rebuild trust with rural voters by focusing on hot-button issues like tariffs and the cost of living.

In early November of last year, Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger conducted targeted mobilization in the state's "deep red" rural counties during the state election, focusing on cost-of-living issues and sharply criticizing Trump's tariff policies. This strategy proved effective, with Spanberger's vote share among rural voters significantly surpassing that of previous Democratic candidates.

Encouraged by this, national Democrats have sprung into action. Beyond the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) investing tens of millions of dollars to court rural voters and voters of color, including launching new farmer-centered advertisements, a caucus of over a hundred moderate Democratic lawmakers recently released a policy agenda. This agenda includes passing a farm bill, expanding rural broadband funding, and providing federal support for local food procurement.

However, some political experts are skeptical about the extent to which Democrats can erode Republican control in rural areas. Anthony Flaccavento, executive director of the progressive rural organization "Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative," told Politico that many voters remain deeply concerned about the Democratic party's support for free trade agreements over the past 30 years, viewing these agreements as having hollowed out rural jobs and fueled the unchecked expansion of corporate power.

"Both parties have failed rural America, but Republicans are better at understanding public sentiment, expressing empathy, and saying 'you have a right to be angry'," he explained.

Myne doesn't like the Republican party, but he also disagrees with some Democrats' stereotypes of Republicans, such as simplistically equating Republican supporters with racists or viewing them as unintelligent. "You can't feel superior to others just because you have different political views," he said.

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