The domestic dairy industry entered a period of deep adjustment in 2025. Faced with multiple pressures including weak terminal consumption, a continuously shrinking ambient liquid milk market, and frequent price wars, dairy companies found themselves in a predicament of declining both revenue and net profit.
Among 19 listed dairy companies last year, only 8 achieved positive revenue growth, while over half saw a year-on-year decline in revenue. Nine companies experienced a year-on-year drop in net profit, accounting for nearly half of the total.
Looking at specific segments, significant divergence exists among different companies. Six out of ten companies primarily focused on liquid milk saw revenue decline. This affected not only large-scale dairy companies like Yangguang Dairy, which holds an advantage in the low-temperature segment, but also regional players such as Tianrun Dairy and Sanyuan Dairy. From a net profit perspective, seven dairy companies even fell into loss-making territory.
Low-temperature fresh milk, cheese, cream, condensed milk, and milk powder are among the few dairy sub-sectors that still maintained growth. In contrast, companies in non-dairy creamer and dairy beverage segments saw their revenues decline.
Overall, the Matthew effect in the industry continues to intensify. Market share and profits are increasingly concentrating towards national leaders, while the survival space for small and medium-sized enterprises is continuously being squeezed. Industry leader Yili achieved growth in both revenue and net profit last year. The second and third players, Mengniu Dairy and Bright Dairy, saw their performance decline. Regional dairy companies, in particular, faced a comprehensive downturn in revenue.
Nine companies experienced inventory growth, with Milkground, Hi-Road Food, and Panda Dairy showing the fastest increases.
The total inventory scale of the 19 listed companies in 2025 reached 19.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, which exceeded the revenue growth rate. Specifically, there were significant differences among companies.
In terms of scale, Yili, Bright Dairy, and Milkground were the top three, with inventory levels reaching 10.823 billion yuan, 3.365 billion yuan, and 933 million yuan, respectively. Notably, Milkground's revenue is lower than that of Sanyuan Dairy, yet its inventory is higher.
Regarding growth rate, nine companies saw inventory increase last year, while ten companies saw a decrease. For some companies, inventory growth stemmed from proactive stockpiling. To avoid the intense competition in the traditional liquid milk market, companies actively expanded into new segments like cheese, buffalo milk, and functional dairy products, increasing inventory in advance to support business expansion, which led to inventory growth. Additionally, weak terminal consumer demand was also a significant factor contributing to increased inventory.
Specifically, the top three in terms of inventory growth rate were Milkground, with an increase exceeding 62.61%, Hi-Road Food Technology with a 32.02% increase, and Panda Dairy with a 20.69% increase. For Milkground and Panda Dairy, revenue growth contributed to the inventory increase; however, the inventory growth rate far outpaced the revenue growth rate. If future market demand falls short of expectations, these companies could face substantial inventory devaluation losses.
Among the nine companies with inventory growth, five experienced revenue declines: Hi-Road Food Technology, Western Animal Husbandry, Jiahe Food Industry, Bright Dairy, and Sanyuan Dairy.
Among the ten dairy companies with reduced inventory, Juneyao Health, Yangguang Dairy, and Tianrun Dairy saw the largest declines.
Dairy Company Turnover Rate Declines; Knight Dairy, Huangshi Group, Manor Pasture See Significant Increase in Inventory Days
In terms of inventory days, the average for the 19 dairy companies in 2025 was 67.94 days, an increase of 1.06 days from the previous year. Amid slowing sales and rising inventory, the turnover rate of dairy companies is declining.
Overall, listed dairy companies saw a slight increase in both inventory and inventory days. However, the divergence among companies is substantial. Knight Dairy, Huangshi Group, Manor Pasture, Milkground, and Jiahe Food Industry experienced the largest increases. Among these five companies, Huangshi Group and Jiahe Food Industry saw declining revenue alongside increasing inventory days. The remaining three companies—Knight Dairy and Manor Pasture—are regional dairy firms. Facing weak terminal sales and continuous pressure from national leaders, their inventory days increased significantly.
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