On October 31, the price of our gold jewelry was 1,168 yuan per gram, down 91 yuan per gram from 1,259 yuan on September 30. As prices have declined, consumer enthusiasm has been sparked, and in recent days the number of customers coming to the store to buy has increased noticeably, a staff member at a gold store in Haidian told reporters on October 31.
Currently, international gold prices have continued to decline, falling to a one-year low on October 30. That day, after breaking below the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, gold prices continued to fall below $3,900 per ounce. As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $3,898.9 per ounce, a decline of 3.29%.
The fall below $4,000 per ounce was not triggered by a single bearish factor, but rather a phased shift in pricing logic, said Zhang Li, chairman of Guangzhou Haofu Technology Co., Ltd., in an interview with reporters. The Middle East situation pushed oil prices above $110 per barrel, U.S. core inflation rebounded to 2.6% in September, and market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to 86%. High interest rates and a strong dollar significantly raised the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Zhang Li further explained that more critically, safe-haven funds were diverted: some capital shifted to U.S. Treasuries, which offer both coupon income and safe-haven attributes, while gold, as a zero-yield asset, became less attractive when interest rates are high. At the same time, cooling AI trades triggered sell-offs in equity assets, and gold even briefly fell in sync with risk assets, showing that its short-term role shifted from a safe-haven anchor to a liquidity supplement tool. Therefore, this round of decline is the result of financial attributes outweighing safe-haven attributes, rather than a reversal of gold's long-term logic.
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, also said in an interview with reporters that this stems from the Federal Reserve holding steady but taking a hawkish tone, with a high probability of a December rate hike; at the same time, high oil prices are boosting inflation stickiness, and safe-haven funds are turning to U.S. Treasuries rather than gold. On local time October 30, Brent oil prices hit a six-month high. As of that day's close, the December London Brent crude oil futures price settled at $117.64 per barrel, up 2.4%.
Senior enterprise management expert Dong Peng also told reporters that this is a clearing out of crowded high-level trades, not a collapse of gold's long-term support. Because gold prices rose a lot earlier and buying was crowded, as the dollar and interest rates strengthened, rate-cut expectations cooled, and safe-haven enthusiasm faded, the $4,000 per ounce threshold also triggered stop-losses, resulting in a one-year low and sharp drop. In the future, global central bank gold purchases and reserve diversification will still support gold prices.
What will gold price trends be like in the fourth quarter? Interviewees expect that gold prices will still have room for volatility before the end of the year, and are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,900 to $4,200 per ounce. Bai Wenxi believes a V-shaped reversal is unlikely in the short term. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations and a rate hike materializes, there is still room for further decline. Future repair requires three trigger conditions: oil prices falling back, inflation expectations cooling, U.S. Treasury yields peaking, and ETF outflows stabilizing.
Lin Xianping, deputy secretary-general of the China Urban Expert Think Tank Committee and associate professor at Zhejiang University City College, also expressed a similar view in an interview with reporters: gold prices in the fourth quarter are likely to remain highly volatile and weakly range-bound, and conditions for a rapid one-way rebound are not yet sufficient. Dong Peng expects that fourth-quarter gold prices may undergo volatile repricing under high volatility, rather than a one-way decline. In the short term, profit-taking positions, the dollar, interest rates, rate-cut expectations, and geopolitical news will amplify volatility, with repeated battles around the $4,000 per ounce threshold; in the medium term, policy turning points, inflation and employment data, and capital flows will determine whether prices can stabilize; in the long term, central bank gold purchases and monetary credit remain the ballast.
In Zhang Li's view, future gold prices will be influenced by three aspects: first, whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in December and its subsequent path. If the tightening cycle is nearing its end, real interest rates peaking will form a solid bottom for gold prices; second, the Middle East situation and oil prices. A decline in oil prices is a prerequisite for cooling inflation expectations and a rebound in gold prices; third, global central bank gold purchases and Asian physical demand, which constitute medium- to long-term support.
Not only that, some foreign institutions also hold similar views. Although gold prices are under short-term pressure, they remain bullish on gold price trends in the medium to long term. Bank of America said in a recent report that it remains cautious on gold's short-term trend and expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be $4,000 per ounce, with the full-year average in 2027 expected to rise to $4,813 per ounce. Standard Chartered remains optimistic about gold's long-term trend and predicts that the average gold price in the fourth quarter will reach $4,650 per ounce, further rising to $4,850 per ounce in the first quarter of 2027.
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