Data collected over the past 24 hours by Sina Finance's "Liquor Price Insider" indicates that the average terminal retail prices for ten major single-product Chinese baijiu brands showed initial signs of stabilization on January 12, with the overall price level temporarily halting its decline after a continuous downward trend. If one bottle of each of the ten major products were packaged and sold together, the total price today would be 8,925 yuan, a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of the price benchmark.
The market today displayed a divergent pattern of "mixed gains and losses, with a slight overall uptick." Among the rising products, Gujiao 1573 performed strongly, increasing by 10 yuan per bottle compared to the previous day, leading the gains. The price of Gujing Gongjin Gu 20 rose by 7 yuan per bottle. The price of Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 5 yuan per bottle. The price of Qinghua Lang rose by 4 yuan per bottle. The price of Qinghua Fen 20 saw a minor increase of 1 yuan per bottle. The price of Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged from yesterday. On the downside, Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye普五八代 led the declines, with their prices falling by 8 yuan per bottle respectively. The pricing anchor effect of the iMoutai platform's launch of平价Feitian is beginning to permeate the terminal market, while普五八代 has now declined for three consecutive days, with its price today falling below the 800 yuan mark to hit a one-month low. The price of Premium Moutai dropped by 3 yuan per bottle. The price of Xijiu Junpin experienced a slight decrease of 1 yuan per bottle. The price stabilization observed in the majority of core market products was the primary factor driving the halt in the overall price decline and its subsequent slight rebound.
The daily data for "Liquor Price Insider" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions of the country, including, but not limited to, designated distributors of liquor companies, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual transacted terminal retail prices handled by each point over the past 24 hours, striving to provide the public with objective, authentic, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of famous baijiu brands. Following the official iMoutai platform's commencement of sales for Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle around New Year's Day and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle starting January 9, the magnetic influence of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The daily liquor prices published by "Liquor Price Insider" adhere to a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and efforts are underway to gradually incorporate verifiable transaction volumes into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai.
In terms of stock analysis for the baijiu industry, users of an investment community have made a rough estimate of Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s first-quarter performance. Their calculation is based on the 2021 base liquor production of Moutai liquor being 56,500 tons. Assuming a 5-year cycle and an 80% conversion rate, this is predicted to contribute 42,400 tons of output in 2026, which, supplemented by inventory replenishment, could support a total of 51,000 tons. Based on the allocation ratio of previous years and considering the needs of this year's reforms, the total allocation for the first quarter is estimated to be approximately 17,000 tons, calculated as about 33% of the annual total. The number of bottles per ton is calculated as 2,100. Revenue estimates for each channel are as follows: the iMoutai channel is estimated to sell 7,500 tons of Feitian (with a daily allocation of 100 tons before the Spring Festival and 70 tons per day after), approximately 680 tons of Premium and Zodiac series, and 190 tons of vintage liquor, generating revenue of 28 billion yuan; the distributor channel is estimated to sell 7,000 tons of Feitian, approximately 670 tons of Premium and Zodiac series, and 180 tons of vintage liquor, generating revenue of 21 billion yuan; the self-operated channel is estimated to sell the remaining 780 tons (total allocation minus the sales of the previous two channels), split as 90% Feitian, 7% Premium, and 3% vintage liquor, with estimated revenue of 3.1 billion yuan; revenue from series liquors, based on the Q1 2025 figure of 7 billion yuan and assuming a 15% decline, is estimated at 5.9 billion yuan. In summary, the estimated total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 is approximately 58 billion yuan. Compared to the revenue of 51.443 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, this would represent a year-on-year growth of about 13%.
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