The Middle East situation has rapidly escalated again shortly after the ink dried on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Lebanon, while Iran announced a suspension of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The transit issues concerning this strategic waterway directly impact global energy markets.
A core dispute of the ceasefire agreement lies in its scope of application. Iran insists that the conflict in Lebanon involving Hezbollah should be included within the ceasefire framework, whereas the United States and Israel have explicitly stated that Lebanon is not part of the agreement. This fundamental disagreement has subjected the ceasefire to a severe test on its very first day of effect.
Reports indicate that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that three out of the ten ceasefire terms proposed by Iran have already been violated, stating that negotiations have not even begun as the "basis for talks has been blatantly undermined."
The Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have resulted in significant casualties, sharply worsening the situation. Data from Lebanese civil defense authorities reports at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries from the airstrikes. Oil prices, which had fallen substantially on the ceasefire news with Brent crude dropping 13% to $94.50 per barrel, are facing renewed volatility due to the reported obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz.
**Dispute Over Agreement Scope: Is Lebanon Included in the Ceasefire Framework?** The applicability of the ceasefire agreement has become the central point of contention, with clear discrepancies between the US and Iranian statements.
Reports state that former US President Donald Trump explicitly stated that Lebanon was not included in the two-week US-Iran ceasefire, calling it "a separate conflict," and indicated that Lebanese Hezbollah was not covered, suggesting the issue "would be addressed later." The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement the same day expressing support for Trump's decision regarding a two-week ceasefire with Iran but clarifying that the ceasefire excludes Lebanon.
However, Iran's position is starkly opposite. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian stated via social media that the US-Iran ceasefire terms are "clear and explicit," and the US must choose between a ceasefire and "continuing the war through Israel," asserting that "the two are incompatible." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani, citing Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's stance, stated that ending military operations in Lebanon is a crucial component of the US-Iran ceasefire, calling Israel's airstrikes a "blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement" and emphasizing that "the US government bears direct responsibility."
Reports from the Financial Times note that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had previously announced that Iran, the US, and their respective allies had agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all regions, including Lebanon. This directly contradicts the US position, further complicating external understanding of the agreement's actual terms.
**Iranian Speaker Lists Three Violations, Clouding Negotiation Prospects** Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf issued a statement via social media detailing the three ceasefire terms Iran considers violated.
The three violations listed by Ghalibaf are: First, achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon – following Pakistani PM Sharif's announcement of an agreed immediate ceasefire in all regions including Lebanon, Israel subsequently launched large-scale airstrikes. Second, prohibiting violations of Iranian airspace – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intercepted and shot down a drone over Lar city in Fars province. Third, acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment activities – the US insists Iran abandon its enrichment capabilities, which Iran views as contrary to the agreement's spirit.
Ghalibaf's statement used strong language, citing Iran's "deep-seated" distrust of the US stemming from repeated American violations of commitments "in various forms," lamenting that "this scenario is repeating itself."
Meanwhile, US White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that US-Iran talks are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on the 11th. She added that the US accepted a newly modified proposal from Iran, not the initial set of terms. Earlier Iranian media reports suggested Ghalibaf would lead the Iranian delegation, with US Vice President JD Vance leading the American side, although informed sources indicate the Iranian delegation head is not yet finalized.
**Vance: Israel Will Show Restraint, Hormuz Commitment Must Be Honored** Amid the escalating situation, US Vice President JD Vance attempted to affirm the ceasefire's stability while issuing a warning to Iran.
Vance stated that Iran believes the ceasefire includes Lebanon, "but that is not the case," and the US "never made such a promise." He also revealed that Israel has expressed willingness to exercise "restraint" in Lebanon to ensure the "success of the current negotiations."
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Vance was unequivocal. He stated that Iran has committed to reopening the Strait, warning that failure to fulfill this commitment would terminate the ceasefire agreement, leading to "serious consequences" for Iran.
However, the Financial Times reported that White House Press Secretary Leavitt denied claims the Strait was closed, calling related reports "inaccurate" and stating that "transit volume through the Strait has increased today." This contradicts reports from Iranian state media about suspended tanker traffic, leaving market uncertainty about the actual transit situation.
**Multiple Pressures Cast Doubt on Ceasefire Sustainability** Israel's military actions have angered Iran and drawn broad international concern.
Reports indicate French President Emmanuel Macron held calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump, urging all warring parties to fully adhere to the ceasefire terms across all conflict zones, including Lebanon, emphasizing that a ceasefire is "credible and lasting only if observed by all parties in all areas." Macron also spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, strongly condemning Israel's "indiscriminate airstrikes" on Lebanon, stating they "directly threaten the ceasefire's sustainability."
According to the Financial Times, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran is "preparing a response" to Israel's attack. Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi stated on social media that "aggression against Hezbollah is aggression against Iran," and that Iranian forces are preparing to "deliver a heavy response."
Iranian military security sources revealed that, given Israel's continued violations of the ceasefire regarding Lebanon and Hezbollah, Iran is preparing deterrence actions against Israeli military targets. The source also suggested that Israel's persistent attacks on Lebanon despite the ceasefire "either indicate the US cannot control the Israeli Netanyahu government, or imply Israel has US acquiescence."
Against this backdrop, whether the first round of US-Iran talks scheduled for the 11th in Islamabad will proceed as planned, and whether negotiations can achieve substantive progress amid unresolved disputes over the agreement's scope, remain core variables closely watched by the market.
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