Against the backdrop of military actions initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran, tensions continue to escalate around the Hormuz Strait, a critical global energy transport corridor. On April 8, the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. However, on the first day after the temporary truce took effect, the Israeli military launched its largest airstrike since the conflict began, targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement, subsequently closing the Hormuz Strait once more and announcing preparations for deterrent actions against Israeli military targets.
According to data from the vessel tracking platform MarineTraffic, as of the morning of April 9 local time, a large number of ships remained gathered and anchored in the Persian Gulf, with no signs of a large-scale departure. Data from the previous day indicated a significant number of vessels stranded in the region, including over 400 oil tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on the evening of April 8, stating that the Hormuz Strait would remain "open and secure." However, the current situation contrasts sharply with this assertion.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously stated that shipping through the waterway had largely ceased following Israel's bombardment of Lebanon, accusing the action of violating the ceasefire agreement. Since the truce was announced, only a small number of vessels have managed to pass through. Analysis by the BBC verification team, based on MarineTraffic data, showed that as of 14:00 on April 8, only three bulk carriers—NJ Earth, Daytona Beach, and Hai Long 1—had transited the strait after the ceasefire took effect. Analysts noted that it remains unclear whether these passages were directly influenced by the truce or were part of pre-approved scheduled voyages.
Information obtained by the BBC verification unit from shipping brokerage SSY indicates that the Iranian navy has issued warnings to ships navigating the Persian Gulf, stating that any vessel attempting to cross the Hormuz Strait without authorization "will be targeted and destroyed."
Shipping industry data reveal that prior to the outbreak of conflict, the Hormuz Strait saw an average daily transit of approximately 107 cargo vessels. The current volume of transits is significantly lower, indicating that the market remains in a state of high vigilance. Industry insiders widely believe that the resumption of shipping will be a gradual process. Lars Jensen, an analyst at shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, pointed out that most shipping companies are still awaiting clearer transit rules and security guarantees, noting that "there is currently insufficient information to support a large-scale resumption of transit." Jensen also emphasized that "the situation has not substantially changed," and that restoring crew confidence will take time.
Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, part of the Lloyd's Register Group, described the current period as "extremely dangerous," with shipowners still facing high uncertainty. "Iran effectively still controls the strait. It is widely expected that shipowners will need to apply for transit permits from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but the specific mechanism remains unclear," Meade stated. Industry professionals anticipate that once transit gradually resumes, priority will be given to oil tankers that are already stranded and fully loaded. Meade revealed, "Currently, about 800 vessels have been trapped for weeks, most of which have completed loading. The urgent task is to evacuate these ships as soon as possible."
However, the ceasefire duration of only two weeks has also made shipping companies more cautious. Niels Rasmussen, an analyst at BIMCO, believes that a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf is unlikely in the short term, as "companies are unwilling to risk being trapped again once the ceasefire ends." Additionally, navigational safety risks have not been fully eliminated. Thomas Kazakos, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Shipping, warned that potential threats such as naval mines still need to be confirmed as cleared, stressing that "it is essential to ensure that navigational safety has been explicitly guaranteed by all parties."
Beyond safety concerns, shipping companies also face potential additional cost pressures. Reports suggest that Iran may include "transit fees" as part of the ceasefire agreement. Jensen also noted, "It appears that the Iranian side is demanding that vessels pay fees to pass through the strait, and shipping companies are viewing this with high caution." Some countries, including India, Malaysia, and the Philippines, have recently negotiated safe passage arrangements for their vessels. However, if transit fees were to be universally imposed, it could lead to more complex legal issues.
James Turner, a shipping lawyer at Quadrant Chambers, explained that U.S. sanctions mechanisms against Iran could make such payments legally problematic. "Making payments to individuals or entities on the sanctions list would constitute a violation, unless an exemption is granted by the U.S. government," Turner stated. Analysts indicate that until safety guarantee mechanisms, navigation rules, and potential risks are fully clarified, shipping companies and vessel owners are likely to maintain a cautious approach. A return to pre-conflict normal transit levels through the Hormuz Strait is unlikely in the short term.
On April 8, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the White House did not agree with reports claiming Iran had closed the Hormuz Strait just hours after reaching a fragile ceasefire agreement with the U.S. However, she emphasized that any attempt to block maritime shipping would be "unacceptable." Leavitt also announced that Vice President Vance would lead a delegation to Islamabad, Pakistan. The delegation will include Presidential Envoy Steve Witkopf and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, with the first round of talks scheduled for Saturday morning, April 11, local time. However, as of the morning of April 9, the Hormuz Strait remained largely closed, failing to meet a key condition of the U.S.-proposed ceasefire.
Leavitt disclosed that Iran had publicly released a 10-point ceasefire proposal, describing it as a framework for negotiations with the United States. She further stated that the U.S. had initially rejected this 10-point plan from Iran. However, as the deadline approached, Iran submitted a new proposal, which was described as "more reasonable and entirely different." Leavitt said that Trump believed this revised proposal "could serve as a viable basis for negotiations." Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether both sides are using this framework as the basis for current talks. Leavitt also emphasized that there was a discrepancy between Iran's public statements and the messages conveyed to U.S. representatives in private negotiations. This suggests that publicly available information may not accurately reflect the true progress of the current negotiations.
According to a report from the Iranian Students' News Agency on April 9, an Iranian military spokesman commented on the ceasefire negotiations, expressing hope for an agreement but also stating that if talks fail, "we are prepared for a long-term war." The conditions set by Iran will form the basis of the negotiations. Analysts point out that with the ceasefire agreement still in a fragile state and core disagreements unresolved, significant uncertainty remains regarding whether the upcoming talks between the U.S. and Iran can lead to a more binding arrangement.
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