STANCHART (02888) rebounded nearly 2%, trading at HK$171.7 by the time of writing, with a turnover of HK$52.634 million. JPMorgan noted in a research report that STANCHART's shares fell 2% on December 8, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.8 percentage points. This decline may be linked to media reports about the bank's £1.5 billion (US$2 billion) settlement with investors in the UK over allegations of violating Iran sanctions. Although STANCHART did not disclose the exact settlement amount, the company stated that the resolution would have minimal impact on its operational performance or financial condition.
JPMorgan expects the settlement to be recorded as a special item in Q4 2025, with no effect on per-share dividends or normalized return on tangible equity (ROTE). However, the settlement could slightly reduce the common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio and potentially limit upside for share buybacks in 2026. The bank estimates the negative impact on the CET1 ratio to be below 13 basis points.
Additionally, JPMorgan forecasts STANCHART's CET1 ratio to reach 14% in Q4 2025, with share buybacks totaling US$2.5 billion in 2026 and a total return rate of 7.2%, the highest among banks in Greater China.
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