As of September 4th, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month have shifted to a near coin-flip. According to CME data, market pricing currently places the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at approximately 50%. Just yesterday, investors were pricing in a 70% likelihood of a hike. This shift follows remarks from several Fed officials aimed at tempering the view that a rate increase is a done deal. Fed Governor Waller indicated that if August data continues to show improving inflation, he would support holding rates steady. A day earlier, New York Fed President Williams also stated that the current case for raising rates is not compelling.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump stated he is ready to strike Iran again at any time, noting that a new round of military action would not "last too long," while also denying attempts to "force Iran back to the negotiating table," adding that he is "not concerned" about whether Tehran signs a deal. Meanwhile, US media reports suggest that in fear of a midterm election defeat, key Trump aides are pushing for a temporary "low-key" approach to the Iran conflict. All eyes now turn to Friday's non-farm payroll report for its potential market impact.
Spot gold (London gold) closed with a small bullish candle featuring a long lower shadow on the daily chart, as the Bollinger Bands contract, indicating the price is about to pick a new direction. The KDJ indicator is poised to form a golden cross, while the MACD fast line sits below the slow line with green histogram bars gradually expanding. The broader trend remains upward, with the medium-term outlook maintaining a phased ascent. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, and the price has selected a new direction as expected. The KDJ indicator shows a golden cross expanding but turning toward a potential death cross, while the MACD fast line is above the slow line with red histogram bars expanding. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross, and the MACD fast line is above the slow line but the red histogram bars are converging. After a brief pullback and consolidation as anticipated, the short-term outlook remains for a continued upward move. Key support levels are at 4467, 4415, and 4385, with resistance seen at 4510, 4542, and 4567. For Shanghai gold, upper resistance levels are at 977 and 983, with support at 967 and 959.
Spot silver (London silver) is trading in a broad range with a medium-term downward phase, but after a scheduled short-term pullback and consolidation, the price is now expected to resume an upward trajectory. Key resistance is at 67.5 and 71.1, with support at 66 and 63.3. For Shanghai silver, the trading range is 16030-17425, with the broader range between 15440 and 18590.
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