NVIDIA's H200 chip has finally had its export restrictions lifted! This also applies to other AI chip companies like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel. The condition, however, is that 25% of sales revenue must be handed over to the U.S. government, a higher rate compared to the 15% previously required for the H20 chip.
The H200 is the most advanced chip in NVIDIA's Hopper series, boasting impressive performance—5-7 times faster than the H20, with a 50% increase in memory capacity and an average selling price more than double that of the H20. Analysts predict that sales to China could generate $10-15 billion in annual revenue for NVIDIA. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, high-growth sectors like optical modules have continued to outperform, hitting new highs. On December 9, the "Three Musketeers" of optical modules surged sharply, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) extending its four-day winning streak and reaching a new record high.
Cao Xuchen, fund manager of the Huabao ChiNext AI ETF (159363), noted that the H200 is the mainstream training chip of the previous generation in the U.S. and serves as the foundation for many overseas AI models. While its computing power is weaker than the B30, its memory bandwidth outperforms the B30. The lifting of H200 restrictions primarily enables the deployment of large-scale training models in China. Investment-wise, this development is expected to boost sales of NVIDIA products, benefiting traditional overseas computing supply chains like optical modules.
Guosheng Securities also highlighted that the computing power supply chain is in a high-growth cycle, with surging demand facing bottlenecks in optical module production. To address this, leading optical module manufacturers are expanding capacity in both mainland China and Thailand. The industry is on the verge of a new wave of production capacity, expected to peak in Q1 next year, marking a transition from "capacity expansion" to "profit growth." An analysis of the ChiNext AI ETF's component stocks shows strong earnings visibility for optical module leaders like "Yi Zhongtian" through 2026.
Which ETFs should investors focus on? Huabao Fund suggests three key directions: First, the lifting of H200 restrictions benefits NVIDIA's sales, favoring optical modules, PCBs, and other overseas computing supply chains. Second, if H200 adoption drives higher capital expenditure (CAPEX) in domestic computing, server manufacturers like Inspur and Huaqin could see improved margins and earnings. Third, while domestic computing chips may face minor sentiment headwinds, the broader trend remains intact. Relevant ETFs are listed in the table for easy reference.
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