According to Shenwan Hongyuan's research report, reusable rockets are one of the primary directions for the future development of commercial launch vehicle technology and will gradually become the mainstay of the international space launch market. China's commercial launch sector is accelerating, with policy support driving the industry into a period of rapid growth, marked by breakthroughs in both solid and liquid rocket engines. As technology continues to advance and policies are implemented, the domestic commercial space industry will accelerate further, presenting robust investment opportunities across the entire rocket industry chain. Shenwan Hongyuan's key insights are as follows:
**Commercial Rockets Enter a Golden Era, Reusable Technology Leads Transformation** The commercial space sector dominates the global aerospace industry, with commercial launch vehicles playing a pivotal role in this golden era. Launch vehicles can be categorized in various ways, such as by propulsion system, payload capacity, or launch method. Structurally, they consist of three major systems: the structural system, propulsion system, and control system. Reusable rockets, offering advantages like lower costs, higher frequency, scalability, and reliability, are set to become a leading force in the international launch market.
**Intense Global Competition, China's Technological Advancements Accelerate** Commercial aerospace companies worldwide are diversely positioned, each with distinct technological and business focuses. The U.S. leads the industry with reusable technologies like the Falcon 9 and Glenn 1 rockets, significantly reducing launch costs. Meanwhile, China's commercial launch sector is gaining momentum, supported by policies that have spurred rapid development and breakthroughs in solid and liquid rocket engines. Future efforts will focus on advancing reusable rocket technology, expanding commercial launch sites, and enhancing launch capabilities.
**Constellation Demand Drives Growth, Unlocking a Billion-Dollar Market** Domestic satellite constellation deployment is accelerating, with applications for low-Earth orbit satellites reaching 51,300. Launch frequency is expected to surge, with projections exceeding 900 launches by 2030. At an estimated cost of $69.75 million per launch, China's commercial rocket market could reach $63.2 billion by 2030.
**Rocket Industry Chain Breakdown** China's launch vehicle industry chain features collaborative efforts across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments: 1. **Upstream**: Raw materials and electronic components. 2. **Midstream**: Comprising the structural system, propulsion system, and control system, ensuring mission success. 3. **Downstream**: Final assembly, testing, and adjustments to ensure operational readiness.
**Risks**: Potential delays in constellation deployment, setbacks in liquid rocket engine development, and heightened industry competition.
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