According to Oxford Economics, the current scenario of high prices and low volumes in Asian chip exports, reaching a record level of divergence, is strengthening the region's trade resilience against external shocks. Based on the consultancy's proprietary Asian chip export index, export value surged nearly 81% year-on-year in March, while export volume grew only about 28%. Economists including Betty Wang noted in a report on Monday that while such divergence typically signals a potential price peak, this time "the situation appears different." They stated that the widening gap between value and volume trends reflects the strong pricing power of advanced chips, supported by robust order backlogs. "This robust performance is helping regional trade withstand external headwinds such as the Middle East conflict, potential energy bottlenecks, and tightening private credit conditions." Oxford Economics forecasts that AI-related demand could contribute up to 15 percentage points to Asian export growth this year. Semiconductor exports from the four economies tracked by the institution—Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore—increased by 80% year-on-year in the first quarter. In contrast, exports of non-tech products from Asia grew only 4.6% in March. The economists added, "Sustained computing demand has become the primary engine for regional export growth."
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