The world is complex and ever-changing; current markets are more focused on resilience than on aggressive surges or sharp downturns, including the ongoing sell-off in large A-share ETFs. The Hang Seng Index experienced another day of narrow fluctuations today, closing with a marginal gain of 0.06%.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a peak. The Iranian regime is preparing for potential attacks, with reports indicating that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has entered a fortified bunker in Tehran. This bunker is said to be connected to a tunnel network and capable of withstanding airstrikes.
The market's primary concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a core geostrategic lever that Iran can control; oil stocks naturally rose, with CNOOC (00883), PETROCHINA (00857), and China Oilfield Services (02883) all gaining over 3%. Tanker shipping rates also climbed accordingly, with COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138), which expects a significant year-on-year surge in its Q1 2026 performance, rising over 6%.
Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China yielded fruitful results. Initially, Trump feigned indifference, stating, "That's what he should be doing, it's good that he signed trade deals." However, he quickly changed his tune, threatening to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China. The reason is straightforward: if other countries follow Canada's lead in actively engaging with China for business, the consequences could be severe, necessitating forceful suppression.
Amid this turbulent global landscape, international gold and silver prices have accelerated their rise recently. Spot gold once broke through $5,090 per ounce to reach a new historical high of $5,093.18, surging over $100 intraday; spot silver also reached a record high, briefly surpassing $109 per ounce. LAOPU GOLD (06181): From January 24th to February 14th, the SKP system welcomed its annual Lunar New Year shopping season. Data from various SKP stores indicates that demand for high-end gold products continued and intensified. Reports noted that by 7 PM on the opening day, January 24th, queues had reached several hundred people. The stock rose nearly 8% today; ZhTong's January gold stock pick, Zijin Gold International (02259), surged nearly 6% at its peak; Chifeng Gold (06693), identified as a bottom-fishing opportunity, gained over 7% again; other strong performers included China Gold International (02099) and China Nonferrous Mining (01258), both up over 8%.
Stocks related to commodity futures trading also benefited noticeably, with Nanhua Futures (02691) rising nearly 9% today. Note the Shanghai Futures Exchange's announcement: it has taken regulatory actions against relevant clients, including restricting new position openings and withdrawals. Risk control is crucial for high-flying varieties, while those nearer the bottom, such as Chow Tai Fook (01929), remain worthy of attention.
Other resource sectors also saw activity. Europe's aluminum industry is facing difficulties; due to successive smelter closures, China's export controls on key minerals, and the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the region is grappling with a severe aluminum supply problem. The EU currently consumes 13.5 million tonnes of aluminum annually, yet local primary aluminum production has plummeted to just 0.95 million tonnes, resulting in a structural deficit of 93%. Last Friday's sector focus highlighted various resource stocks, including CNGR (02579), which rose over 4% today.
Uranium also performed well today. On January 20th, the physical uranium trust Sprott Physical Uranium Trust filed a preliminary short-form prospectus to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust units over 25 months, with annual physical uranium purchases in the spot market not exceeding 9 million pounds. The issuance amount corresponds to procurement volumes representing approximately 12.4%-15.9% of natural uranium demand, indicating sustained growth in secondary demand. Uranium prices are expected to continue strengthening. CGN Mining (01164) rose 10%.
Media reports indicated that at Tencent's (00700) annual meeting held today (26th), Chairman Pony Ma stated that 2025 is a big year for AI. Competition in the industry is fierce this year, encompassing not only AI but also community group buying and food delivery; Tencent is adopting a steady approach, with AI being the primary area of significant investment. Increased capital expenditure creates demand for companies like Changfei Optical Fiber (06869), which surged nearly 18% today; data center business is also expected to improve, with Sunevision (01686) rising over 6%. Tencent itself may need to intensify its share buyback efforts to show improvement.
On January 25th, Tencent's AI platform, Yuanbao, announced a Spring Festival event starting February 1st, inviting users to experience new features on the Yuanbao App and share a 1 billion RMB cash红包 pool, with individual users eligible for up to 10,000 RMB. Starting now, users can open the Yuanbao App to reserve their红包 and receive 10 extra lottery chances on February 1st. This marks Tencent's entry into the competition for super-app entry points in C-end AI applications; the红包 event could significantly boost Yuanbao's downloads and daily active users, intensifying the battle among large model providers for AI access. Weimob Inc (02013) benefited the most, rising nearly 6%.
At the Kingsoft Cloud (03896) annual Tech Talk held last week, Senior Vice President Liu Tao announced that the company's intelligent computing platform, Kingsoft Cloud Starstream, has completed a strategic upgrade from a resource management platform to a one-stop, full-process AI training and inference platform. Contributions from the Xiaomi-Kingsoft ecosystem are significant, accounting for 40% of the total annual related-party transaction value in the first half of 2025. Beyond this foundational ecosystem, Kingsoft Cloud's usage by external customers is also advancing steadily. The stock rose over 6% today.
Hong Kong property stocks, mentioned frequently recently, are gaining consensus among investors that property prices have passed an inflection point, with institutions forecasting a noticeable 5% to 10% increase this year. Recently, media reported that CKH HOLDINGS (00001) is considering spinning off its global telecommunications business, which covers Europe, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia, as early as the third quarter, with listings in Hong Kong and London; Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank are reportedly collaborating with CKH on the spinoff. In response, CKH issued an announcement stating that no decision has been made regarding transactions involving its existing telecom or retail assets and businesses, including a separate listing. CKH HOLDINGS (00001) rose nearly 4%; SHK PPT (00016) and HYSAN DEV (00014) both gained over 3%.
Domestically, according to Iceberg Index data, real-time transactions of pre-owned homes in key cities rose significantly in January compared to December of the previous year, showing strength even in the traditionally slow season, and the number of pre-owned home listings has declined month-on-month. China Jinmao (00817) and CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) both rose over 5%.
A new virus has emerged. Earlier last week, a hospital in India confirmed two cases of Nipah virus. Nipah virus infection is a zoonotic disease that can be transmitted between humans, with an incubation period of 5 to 14 days; symptoms include high fever and headache, potentially leading to encephalitis and seizures in severe cases. The virus is spreading in the state of West Bengal in eastern India. SIHUAN PHARM (00460): India is one of its core overseas markets and is expected to benefit from increased demand for antiviral drugs and severe case support medications (such as corticosteroids) driven by the Nipah outbreak. The stock rose nearly 9% today. CANSINOBIO (06185): Its mRNA/adenovirus vector platform is mature, enabling rapid initiation of Nipah virus vaccine R&D, rising over 7%; others include Junshi Bio (01877): VV116 has shown inhibitory activity against Nipah virus in vitro, is an approved COVID-19 oral drug, and possesses a foundation for emergency production and overseas registration, rising over 4%.
According to a Huayuan Da Nengyuan research report: In early January 2026, some provinces promoted the exit of some coal supply-guaranteeing production capacity. This round of policy for exiting supply-guaranteeing capacity was already reflected in a September 1, 2025, document from the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission and aligns with prior market predictions. If rolled out nationwide, the scale of exit is expected to be significant. Based on calculations, the current annual coal surplus is approximately 100 million tonnes; if the exit of relevant supply-guaranteeing capacity is implemented, it could substantially improve the coal supply-demand balance, significantly reduce coal inventories, and make coal price elasticity within 2026 promising. Key Hong Kong-listed varieties: China Shenhua (01088), Yankuang Energy (01171), China Coal (01898), Kinetic Dev (01277).
Chow Tai Fook (01929): Same-Store Sales Growth Accelerates, Strong Third-Quarter Performance. On January 23rd, the international gold market witnessed a historic surge, with spot gold breaking through the $4,900 per ounce mark and continuing to climb. The domestic gold jewelry market followed suit with substantial increases, with mainstream brand quotes collectively breaking through 1,500 RMB per gram, with single-day gains reaching up to 53 RMB per gram. Analysis: Against the backdrop of persistently rising gold prices, the company has captured the growth红利 of priced gold jewelry through product innovation and channel positioning optimization, becoming the core driver of same-store sales growth. The company ended its FY2026 third quarter with strong performance, primarily due to increased consumer acceptance of high gold prices and robust sales of priced jewelry (Mainland China priced jewelry same-store sales grew 53.4%). The retail value contribution of priced jewelry in Mainland China increased by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year to 40.1%, supporting gross margin resilience. Retail Performance: 1) Same-store sales: In Mainland China, same-store sales growth for directly operated stores was 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points compared to July-September; franchise store same-store sales grew 26.3%, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points. The Hong Kong and Macau markets saw same-store sales growth of 14.3%, accelerating by 8.1 percentage points from July-September. 2) Product Mix: High-margin priced jewelry continued to lead growth. The retail value of the priced jewelry category in Mainland China increased 59.6% year-on-year, with its contribution reaching 40.1%, up 10.7 percentage points year-on-year. 3) Store Network: The company continued its plan to enhance per-store efficiency, with a net reduction of 228 stores during the quarter, bringing the total number of stores to 5,813. However, the rate of store closures is expected to narrow in FY2027, with incremental contributions from overseas market expansion. The company continues to optimize its channels while commencing expansion into Southeast Asia, with the first new concept store opening at Singapore's Changi Airport. The company expects low-to-mid single-digit year-on-year growth in same-store sales during the Spring Festival period, tightened discounts in January to build momentum for February promotions, and increased marketing expenditure. Strong market expectations for 2-3 Fed rate cuts in 2026, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, are also a key driver of rising gold prices.
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