Abstract
Planet Fitness will report third quarter results on November 5, 2026, Pre-MKt, with consensus pointing to modest year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS and investors watching membership trends, pricing execution, and club-level pacing into year end.Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter calls for revenue of 347.92 million US dollars, up 7.57% year over year, adjusted EPS of 0.81, up 9.31% year over year, and EBIT of 105.09 million US dollars, up 6.91% year over year; margin guidance for the quarter has not been specified. The company’s model remains anchored in company-operated clubs and franchise fee streams, with the prior quarter’s revenue mix at 143.86 million US dollars for company-owned clubs, 102.86 million US dollars for franchise, 85.58 million US dollars for equipment, and 32.92 million US dollars for the national advertising fund, with management continuing to balance pricing with engagement across tiers. The equipment line, at 85.58 million US dollars last quarter, retains the clearest near-term upside as franchisees advance replacement cycles; it grew 15.30% year over year in fiscal 2025 and remains sensitive to refresh cadence and capex availability.Last Quarter Review
Planet Fitness delivered revenue of 365.22 million US dollars in the previous quarter, with a gross profit margin of 56.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 67.08 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 20.19%, and adjusted EPS of 0.88, up 2.33% year over year. A notable financial highlight was EBIT of 124.33 million US dollars, outpacing internal expectations and supporting full-year guidance updates despite softer membership adds early in the year. In business mix, company-operated clubs generated 143.86 million US dollars and franchise fees 102.86 million US dollars, while equipment sales were 85.58 million US dollars and the national advertising fund contributed 32.92 million US dollars; in fiscal 2025, equipment revenue rose 15.30% year over year and company-operated clubs grew 7.40% year over year, framing the durability of non-dues revenue and fee-based income entering 2026.Current Quarter Outlook
Company-operated clubs and franchise fee engine
The upcoming print will likely hinge on the stability of dues revenue, cross-tier mix, and fee flow-through from franchisees. With the prior quarter delivering 143.86 million US dollars from company-operated clubs and 102.86 million US dollars from franchise fees, modest sequential variability will matter less than evidence that club traffic, upgrade rates, and pricing elasticity are holding into the fall season. The quarter’s forecasted revenue growth of 7.57% year over year and adjusted EPS growth of 9.31% year over year imply steady underlying economics, assuming normal seasonality and adequate conversion to higher-value tiers. Investors should watch whether the company sustains a gross margin profile near the prior quarter’s 56.01% while controlling marketing and corporate overhead to protect the 20.19% net margin backdrop. Any commentary on dues integrity, upgrade activity into premium tiers, and near-term price testing will be important signals for how fee streams and corporate-owned club performance translate to fourth quarter trends.Equipment sales and the replacement cycle
Equipment revenue of 85.58 million US dollars last quarter sits at the heart of the franchise ecosystem’s capex rhythm, and it remains the segment with the clearest cyclical leverage into the second half. Historically, the franchise network’s replacement cycles and re-equips can drive double-digit growth periods in this line; in fiscal 2025 the segment grew 15.30% year over year, and management commentary through mid-2026 has framed a measured but constructive refresh cadence. For the third quarter, investors should look for qualitative updates on order timing, delivery pace, and whether franchisees are maintaining planned refurbishments after earlier marketing and pricing adjustments. The degree to which equipment shipments align with club openings and remodels will shape near-term EBIT sensitivity, given the segment’s margin characteristics and operating leverage. A steady equipment cadence would corroborate the 6.91% year-over-year growth implied in EBIT forecasts, even if dues momentum normalizes.What may drive the stock near term
Three items are poised to influence the share reaction: near-term membership and same-store dynamics, pricing strategy execution, and full-year guidance framing. First, traffic and sign-up patterns after the early-year slowdown remain central; third-party checks during the summer pointed to steady footfall and robust web traffic, and investors will want to see that translate into upgrades and net adds that limit churn risk through the shoulder months. Second, pricing tests and tier strategy remain under scrutiny; the company paused a planned premium-tier price increase in the first half, and clarity about when and where pricing can be reintroduced without hurting conversion will be pivotal for maintaining EPS leverage. Third, full-year guidance has evolved through 2026 with revenue growth of about 7% and adjusted EPS growth around 6% now the working baseline; reiteration, or any tightening of ranges around that baseline, may set the tone for how the fourth quarter is modeled, especially for operating expense run-rates and marketing. If management pairs stable dues trends with encouraging equipment order commentary and indicates that fourth quarter momentum is intact, the setup for consensus numbers into early 2027 may improve.Analyst Opinions
The majority of recently published views are bullish, accounting for roughly all of the compiled ratings and preview notes over the covered period; the balance of commentary skews supportive of the model’s cash generation and the visibility implied by franchise fee and equipment revenue. A Buy rating with a 62.00 US dollars price target was reaffirmed by a large global bank’s analyst, who emphasized the brand’s recurring cash characteristics and the protective qualities of its low-cost membership value proposition, alongside a stable royalty stream that underpins normalized earnings power. Another widely followed brokerage maintained a Buy rating with an 80.00 US dollars target, underscoring the benefits from club-level product mix actions, measured pricing flexibility, and continued geographic expansion inside the franchise network that collectively reinforce mid-single-digit revenue growth and consistent adjusted EPS compounding. A leading North American firm kept an Outperform stance while adjusting its target to 60.00 US dollars, noting that second-half growth may decelerate from early-year baselines due to marketing and pricing timing, yet reaffirming that traffic and engagement data through mid-summer remained constructive enough to support the full-year framework. In a series of mid-August updates, the same firm reiterated its Outperform view with targets in the mid-60s, calling out that second-quarter results landed slightly ahead of Street expectations and that management’s updated outlook—reiterating about 7% revenue growth and lifting adjusted EPS growth to roughly 6% for 2026—helps anchor near-term valuation while the company refines its pricing playbook.Within this bullish consensus, the most cited near-term positives include: resilience in dues-driven revenue despite an earlier slowdown in net adds, improving upgrade and engagement patterns supported by product and amenities enhancements across clubs, and ongoing franchisee appetite to refresh equipment as supply chains and delivery schedules normalize. Analysts also note that the second-quarter beat on revenue and adjusted EPS—365.22 million US dollars and 0.88, respectively—provides evidence of execution stability at a time when marketing calibration and cross-tier mix are being fine-tuned. The emphasis for the third quarter is less about a step-change in same-store growth and more about confirming that margins remain disciplined while the company sustains a measured cadence of club investments and equipment refreshes across the system. That tone underlies why most houses are comfortable with mid-single-digit top-line growth translating into slightly faster adjusted EPS growth, helped by operating leverage and expense control.
From a modeling perspective, bullish frameworks are broadly consistent with the quarter’s consensus: revenue near 347.92 million US dollars, adjusted EPS around 0.81, and EBIT of approximately 105.09 million US dollars, each implying high-single-digit year-over-year expansion. Several firms highlight that the revenue base is more diversified than dues alone would suggest, with the equipment and advertising fund contributions adding resilience to aggregate results even as membership mix normalizes. The principal debate these analysts are watching is the pacing of pricing actions on premium tiers; most argue that a deliberate, test-and-learn approach can sustain upgrade interest while reducing churn risk, and that clarity around timing is likely to emerge over the next two quarters rather than in a single step. On balance, the bullish case is that steady footfall and web traffic trends observed during the summer should be enough to hold revenue growth in the 7%–8% zone this quarter, with gross margin discipline keeping the profit narrative on track for the reiterated 2026 full-year framework.
Overall, the prevailing institutional view heading into November 5, 2026 is that Planet Fitness is set to deliver a stable, modest growth quarter that largely fits the company’s reiterated trajectory for 2026, with upside potential if equipment orders and shipments show momentum and if management signals clearer timing for selective pricing actions on premium tiers. The endorsements from multiple well-known institutions—spanning Buy and Outperform ratings and targets clustered between the low 60s and 80.00 US dollars—reflect confidence that the core cash generation can support consistent adjusted EPS growth while the company calibrates membership mix and marketing into year end.
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