The prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait for ten weeks has raised questions about its impact on the global economy and oil markets. Despite being the most significant oil supply disruption in recent years, it has not yet triggered record-breaking price volatility. According to a report by Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, the disruption has so far inflicted only moderate damage to global economic growth. Under a baseline scenario where the strait gradually reopens and resumes full operations by the end of June, Hatzius expects Brent crude prices to remain stable in the near term and decline to $90 per barrel by year-end. However, he cautioned that risks remain skewed toward more adverse outcomes, including higher oil prices and greater economic losses. Separately, Ziad Daoud, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, stated that while global oil inventories are likely to continue decreasing, his analysis suggests this will not cause crude prices to surge to $200 per barrel.
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