Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. has released a research report stating that policy signals have led to the stabilization of industry chain prices, gradually solidifying a bottom for the sector. Concurrently, measures such as clearing outdated capacity through energy consumption constraints, establishing technology grading, and building patent pools are steering the industry away from price wars towards competition based on technology and quality. Furthermore, space-based photovoltaics, serving as a significant catalyst for the sector this year, is opening up entirely new application scenarios and growth potential for the photovoltaic industry. Overall, the combined effect of policy support and new scenario catalysts indicates a clear upward trend for the industry, making sector allocation opportunities worthy of attention. The main views of Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:
The photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" governance direction is clear, with policies driving a transition towards high-quality development. Recently, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and intensify efforts to curb "involution-style" competition. For the first time, mergers and acquisitions have been incorporated into comprehensive governance, with a clear "combination punch" strategy to address involution-style competition, including production capacity regulation, standard leadership, innovation-driven development, price enforcement, quality supervision, and intellectual property protection. These policy signals have contributed to price stabilization across multiple segments of the industry chain. Simultaneously, the industry is proposing innovative pathways to shift towards technology and quality competition, such as phasing out outdated capacity using energy consumption and environmental standards, establishing a technology grading management system for solar cells, and launching the first photovoltaic patent pool, all aimed at moving the industry from price wars to high-quality development.
Prices for silicon wafers, cells, and modules remain stable. According to Infolink Consulting's WeChat public account, the average price for polysilicon dense material is 35.5 yuan/kg, flat month-on-month. The average price for N-type 182*210mm silicon wafers is 1.0 yuan per piece, flat month-on-month. The average price for N-type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.20 yuan per piece, flat month-on-month. The average price for TOPCon cells is 0.330 yuan/W, flat month-on-month. In China, the average prices for centralized and distributed TOPCon modules are 0.71 yuan/W and 0.78 yuan/W, respectively, both flat month-on-month. The average prices for centralized and commercial/industrial distributed BC modules are 0.818 yuan/W and 0.851 yuan/W, respectively, both flat month-on-month.
The photovoltaic sector ranked relatively high in recent weekly performance, with valuations also relatively elevated. According to Wind data, the photovoltaic sector rose 3.78% for the most recent week (May 1 to May 8, 2026), outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.36 percentage points. Compared to other sectors under the SW industry classification, its performance ranked in the upper-middle range. In terms of valuation, the trailing twelve-month (TTM) overall valuation for the photovoltaic sector as of May 8, 2026, was 39.10 times, placing it in the higher range compared to other sectors under the SW classification. Looking at the valuation trend, the TTM overall valuation for the photovoltaic sector declined continuously from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, before beginning a gradual rise from early 2024. The valuation premium of the photovoltaic sector relative to the CSI 300 stands at 2.80 times, largely consistent with the overall valuation trend.
Risk warnings include industry policy fluctuation risks, intensifying competition risks, new technology substitution risks, and product price volatility risks.
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