A "black swan" event has emerged unexpectedly. On February 28th local time, the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran. Rising risk aversion has pushed gold prices higher. On March 2nd, spot gold (London) opened and climbed steadily; as of the time of writing, it was up 2.43% temporarily to $5,406.56 per ounce.
Since the beginning of 2026, gold's trajectory has been characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Internationally, after hitting a high at the end of January, COMEX gold experienced a significant correction to around $4,700 per ounce, then gradually stabilized and recovered. Entering late February, driven by factors including heightened geopolitical risk aversion, the momentum of the gold price rebound became evident.
Several interviewed analysts indicated that, generally, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on gold prices tends to be short-term. Investors should closely monitor the intensity and duration of the conflict, remaining vigilant about the risk of a reversal in market expectations. However, against a backdrop where medium to long-term supportive factors—such as a weakening US dollar credit and sustained gold purchases by global central banks—have not undergone substantive changes, gold's medium to long-term value as an allocation remains prominent. It continues to be a core asset for hedging against global systemic risks.
Market consensus suggests that the intensity and persistence of the current Middle East conflict will be a core variable influencing the direction of global financial markets. Wang Yanqing, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at CITIC Securities Futures, stated that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on gold prices tends to be pulse-like: in the short term, heightened market risk aversion drives a阶段性上涨 in gold prices, but as conflict intensity moderates, the gold price trend gradually stabilizes.
Qu Rui, Senior Associate Director of the Research and Development Department at Oriental Gold Rating, analyzed that this conflict directly triggered a pulse-like surge in market risk aversion, pushing gold prices higher in a volatile manner. The short-term direction of gold prices will depend heavily on the intensity of Iran's retaliation and the potential spread of the conflict. If Iran coordinates with forces such as the Houthis in Yemen, Shia militias in Iraq, and Hezbollah in Lebanon to strike US and Israeli military targets, a further escalation of geopolitical conflict would likely propel gold prices higher.
Furthermore, if critical shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea were completely blocked, the combination of shipping disruptions and constrained energy supplies would create a dual driver of risk aversion and inflation, potentially leading to a breakout surge in gold prices. Conversely, if the conflict remains a localized skirmish and a ceasefire agreement is reached quickly, the market's risk premium would rapidly dissipate, and gold prices would likely give back their previous gains. Attention should also be paid to potential diplomatic de-escalation from technical negotiations in Vienna. In the short term, gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility.
"Historical experience shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts themselves on gold prices is typically short-term in nature," pointed out Jiang Shu, Chief Analyst at Shanghai Xirang Industrial's Gold Circle. If the conflict is brief, or if market expectations widely perceive its duration to be limited, a short-term pullback in gold prices is possible, even if sporadic conflicts continue.
Affected by prolonged high tariff policies, the US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index rose year-on-year to 3% in December 2025, up from 2.8% and exceeding market expectations of 2.9%. Simultaneously, the叠加 of high inflation and factors like government shutdowns led to US GDP growth of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, far below the market expectation of 3%. The volatility in tariff policies also poses greater challenges for the Federal Reserve in assessing inflation levels and interest rate prospects, further influencing gold price trends.
"The uncertainty brought by 'Trump 2.0 policies' since 2025 is a key variable currently affecting gold's trajectory," in Jiang Shu's view. This conflict is unfolding against the backdrop of this main theme of uncertainty: on one hand, relevant rulings by the US Supreme Court on tariffs have somewhat curbed this uncertainty; but on the other hand, as the US midterm elections approach, such uncertainty is likely to amplify further. If the conflict becomes prolonged, the US Congress would likely question any actions by Trump to initiate war directly without congressional approval, creating an additional bearish influence on gold prices.
The impact of this geopolitical conflict on international oil prices remains to be seen. Pan Helin, a well-known economist and member of the MIIT's Expert Committee on the Information and Communication Economy, stated that following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, the market generally expects this conflict to conclude rapidly. If it can be further confirmed that Iran achieves a smooth political transition after Khamenei's death, capital markets could experience a comprehensive reversal of expectations, manifesting as synchronized declines in gold and crude oil prices, and rising US stock prices, particularly in industrial sectors. However, war itself carries extreme uncertainty, and Khamenei's death could also plunge Iran's situation into further chaos.
Jiang Shu noted that from a medium to long-term trend perspective, the impact of a geopolitical conflict on gold prices crucially depends on whether it significantly impacts international oil prices, a point particularly salient in this conflict. As a conflict related to a core oil-producing region in the Middle East, its effect on oil prices deserves close attention.
"During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, market risk aversion dominated in the initial stages, pushing international gold prices to repeated new highs. However, as the conflict persistently drove up international oil prices, the oil price increase transmitted to US inflation levels, causing a surge that prompted the Fed to shift its monetary policy from modest to aggressive rate hikes," Jiang Shu recalled. Influenced by this, after a short-term rise initially during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international gold prices fell by approximately 20% in the second and third quarters as the conflict prolonged. Jiang Shu emphasized that this 20% decline was not due to the dissipation of geopolitical risk aversion, but primarily because the Russia-Ukraine conflict, by affecting oil prices and subsequently inflation, ultimately altered market expectations for Fed monetary policy. The current market environment shares many similarities with 2022.
Jiang Shu further explained that this conflict holds particular significance for the crude oil market: in an extreme scenario, a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be highly likely to trigger a spike in international crude oil prices. Reportedly, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global crude oil shipments; its security is a key variable determining international oil price trends. If obstructed, it could push international oil prices above $80 or even $100 per barrel, significantly impacting global inflation expectations and the monetary policies of central banks worldwide.
Since the start of 2026, the international gold and silver markets first experienced an "epic surge" followed by a sharp plunge, then staged a gradual rebound from February onwards,上演 a roller-coaster ride. The industry widely believes that the underlying logic supporting the gold bull market remains intact. From a medium to long-term perspective, factors such as the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, continued gold purchases by global central banks, geopolitical tensions, and the "de-dollarization" narrative will continue to underpin the gold bull market.
Multiple futures analysts generally believe that the short-term impact of this geopolitical conflict on gold prices may be relatively limited, while the long-term impact requires further assessment based on subsequent developments.
"The trend impact brought by geopolitical conflicts is relatively limited," Jiang Shu stated. Over the past few years, there have been multiple geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, but their impact on gold prices, especially the trend impact, has been quite limited, primarily for two reasons: first, such conflicts tend to be short-lived; second, they did not cause剧烈冲击 to the international crude oil market. From this perspective, if this conflict prolongs and spills over to affect international oil prices, it could have a negative impact on the medium-term trend of the gold market; however, this impact is unlikely to alter the overall direction of the gold bull market. A spillover affecting oil prices might trigger a medium-term correction in gold prices of around 20%, similar to 2022.
Wang Yanqing believes the long-term impact of the conflict depends crucially on whether the US deploys ground troops into Iran. Wang stated, "Due to the rapid advancement of US-Israel strategic objectives, the short-term impact of this geopolitical conflict on gold prices may be relatively limited. The long-term impact needs to be研判结合 the subsequent development of events, focusing particularly on the extent of US involvement in Iran's domestic situation."
Qu Rui expressed that, from a medium to long-term view, the Trump administration will continue to compete for foreign interests and overseas resources, making international uncertainty a significant support for gold prices. Coupled with the reshaping of the international monetary order in 2026 becoming a main theme for global assets, against a backdrop of damaged US dollar credibility and exacerbated US fiscal risks, the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle further reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, demand for gold purchases by global central banks remains high, with ongoing strategic buying by various countries resonating with the deepening trend of de-dollarization, collectively solidifying the foundation for gold's medium to long-term appreciation.
"It is important to note that short-term gold prices have accumulated significant gains; one must be cautious of the risk of a high-level correction triggered by receding geopolitical sentiment, and chasing the rally requires caution," Qu Rui warned. While highlighting risks, Qu Rui also believes that against a backdrop where geopolitical uncertainties persist, US dollar credit weakens, and medium to long-term supportive factors like global central bank gold buying remain substantively unchanged, gold's value as a medium to long-term allocation remains prominent. It continues to be a core asset for hedging against global systemic risks.
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