As the global memory chip market experiences soaring prices driven by tight supply and robust demand, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are set to release their Q4 2025 earnings reports on January 29th. This marks the first time the two giants will announce results on the same day, signaling a critical phase in the memory industry's cyclical recovery and drawing intense investor focus due to their profit competition, future capital expenditure plans, and fierce rivalry in next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology.
Latest earnings previews suggest Samsung Electronics is poised to deliver a historic quarterly performance, with Q4 revenue expected to surpass 90 trillion won and operating profit projected to surge 208% year-on-year, potentially making it the first South Korean company to achieve a single-quarter operating profit exceeding 20 trillion won. This strong performance is primarily fueled by a rapid rebound in its memory semiconductor business, significantly narrowing the profit gap with SK Hynix and potentially overtaking it in subsequent quarters. Meanwhile, although SK Hynix's heavy reliance on HBM somewhat limits its gains from the recent surge in commodity DRAM prices, the market still anticipates its quarterly operating profit to reach at least 18 trillion won.
Another major highlight of these earnings releases will be the companies' outlook for a 2026 earnings peak and their capital expenditure plans. With memory supply constraints expected to persist until 2027, analysts widely predict both giants will enter the "100 trillion won operating profit club" in 2026. Furthermore, the competitive dynamics surrounding the supply of next-generation HBM4 chips will be a focal point, especially as both companies have reportedly delivered paid final samples to NVIDIA, which directly impacts future market share allocation in this high-margin segment.
Investors are closely monitoring signals from the upcoming earnings calls regarding capacity expansion and technology roadmaps. The market generally expects Samsung to significantly increase investments in the memory sector to boost HBM production and advance construction of its Taylor, Texas fab, while SK Hynix's capital expenditures are forecast to exceed 30 trillion won in 2026, focusing on the M15X fab and the Yongin semiconductor cluster. Profit Gap Narrows Significantly As commodity DRAM prices rebounded from the second half of 2025 and mainstream DRAM shipment volumes increased, the profitability of Samsung Electronics' memory division is recovering rapidly. According to forecasts cited by ZDNet, the operating profit of Samsung's memory semiconductor business is expected to be in the high range of 17 trillion won. If the overall earnings forecasts materialize, Samsung will not only achieve a remarkable 22.7% year-on-year revenue growth but could also become the first South Korean company in history to post a single-quarter operating profit of 20 trillion won (approximately $138.2 billion).
In contrast, while SK Hynix's operating profit was initially projected to be between 16 and 17 trillion won, industry sources cited by ZDNet now indicate its Q4 operating profit has been revised upwards to at least 18 trillion won. However, analysis points out that SK Hynix's business structure, which is more heavily focused on HBM, has somewhat limited the extent of benefits it can reap from the recent sharp increase in commodity DRAM prices.
The market widely anticipates this catching-up trend will reverse in Q1 2026. According to ZDNet, as commodity DRAM prices are expected to surge significantly again, Samsung's memory division operating profit is likely to surpass that of SK Hynix in that quarter. Data from TrendForce indicates that the average selling price of mainstream DRAM in Q1 2026 is projected to jump 55% to 60% quarter-on-quarter. 2026 Poised for Peak Earnings Against a backdrop of memory supply constraints expected to last until 2027, the two South Korean memory giants are gearing up for a potential earnings peak in 2026. Media reports indicate analysts predict SK Hynix's 2026 sales will exceed 165 trillion won, with operating profit breaking the 100 trillion won mark. Concurrently, investment bank reports from Macquarie and KB Securities suggest Samsung Electronics' 2026 operating profit could also reach around 150 trillion won, meaning both companies are set to firmly enter the "100 trillion won operating profit club."
To support these growth expectations, massive capital expenditure plans are in the pipeline. Although official detailed plans have not been released, The Bell previously reported that SK Hynix's capital expenditure reached the high range of 10 trillion won in 2024, increased to the mid-range of 20 trillion won in 2025, and is expected to exceed 30 trillion won in 2026. Reports state the company has already invested hundreds of billions of won into the Cheongju M15X fab and the Yongin cluster project.
Samsung also plans aggressive expansion. Media reports suggest that after the DS division's expenditure of 40.9 trillion won in 2025, Samsung intends to significantly increase investment in the memory sector in 2026. Key priorities include boosting HBM production capacity, expanding the Pyeongtaek DS base, and advancing the construction of its Taylor, Texas fab. HBM4 Technology Race Heats Up Beyond financial figures, the battle for supremacy in the HBM4 domain is intensifying. TrendForce notes that NVIDIA revised its HBM4 specifications for the Rubin platform in Q3 2025, increasing the single-pin speed requirement to over 11 Gbps, which forced the three major HBM suppliers to modify their designs.
According to SeDaily, both Samsung and SK Hynix began delivering paid final HBM4 samples to NVIDIA by the end of 2025. The industry expects specific supply volumes and pricing to be locked in during Q1 2026, with TrendForce adding that the final outcome will become clear later in the quarter once contracts are formally finalized.
In this technological race, Samsung is attempting to challenge SK Hynix by employing a 1c-nm process for HBM4 and utilizing advanced internal foundry technology to produce the base die, which is expected to offer higher transfer speeds. Nonetheless, TrendForce points out that SK Hynix has already secured related contracts and is anticipated to maintain a dominant share of the total HBM supply in 2026.
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