Could US CPI Data in January Support Case for Fed Rate Cuts?

Bloomberg02-13

Bloomberg Economics says headline, core CPI likely rose 0.2%January inflation report should support case for Fed rate cutsMonthly data on US consumer prices due Tuesday is set to show more ...

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Services inflation moderated as well, though at a slower pace.The downdraft in price pressures has helped build expectations in financial markets for rate cuts this year, though Fed officials recently have pushed back on the idea of imminent reductions. They have cited a robust labor market as a reason why they can take their time to make sure disinflation continues before commencing with easing.“We expect January’s report to provide such evidence,” Wong and Paul said. “Inflation in both housing rents and non-housing service categories should moderate to 0.4% in January, compared to last year’s average monthly pace of 0.5%.”The core CPI measure has been running well above the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is based on Bureau of Economic Analysis calculations of personal consumption expenditures and published later in the month.At the end of 2023, the spread between the year-over-year rates of change of the two indexes was a full percentage point, more than three times the average over the last 20 years.Many components of the core CPI measure feed into the core PCE gauge, and the details of tomorrow’s CPI release “will suggest a more favorable reading” for the PCE metric, Wong and Paul said.The Bloomberg Economics prediction for headline CPI is in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of outside forecasters, while its prediction for core CPI is slightly below the consensus.On a year-over-year basis, Bloomberg Economics sees the headline index rising 3% and the core index up 3.7%, versus consensus estimates of 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively. A 2.9% reading on the headline index would mark the first below 3% since early 2021.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1168856954"}