Pre-market market movements. 1. On Monday, September 28, before the US stock market opened, all three major US index futures were trading lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.55%, S&P 500 index futures dropped 0.48%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.83%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.06%, the UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.26%, France's CAC 40 added 0.30%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.08%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 3.56% to $95.70 per barrel. Brent crude climbed 3.16% to $100.52 per barrel.
Market News
Micron Technology's earnings will test the strength of AI infrastructure, OpenAI's AI talks with the White House resonate, and PCE and nonfarm payrolls will set the tone for October interest rates. This week, market focus will shift to earnings and macroeconomic data. After the US market closes on Wednesday Eastern Time, memory chip giant Micron Technology (MU) will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results, seen as a critical moment to test whether the AI infrastructure trade can continue. Over the past two weeks, AI infrastructure-related trades have wavered, and memory chips have become one of the most prominent bottlenecks in AI computing expansion. Investors will focus on finding evidence of sustained strong memory demand. OpenAI is expected to preview GPT-6 Cyber and launch hosted agent-related products at its DevDay in San Francisco on Tuesday; US President Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and tech industry CEOs will meet on September 29 local time to discuss AI. Together, these three elements form a triple validation of the AI trade, from models and regulation to profitability. On the macro front, this week is a typical "jobs and inflation week." The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE, will be released on Wednesday, and the September nonfarm payrolls report will follow on Friday. Together, they will determine market pricing for the Fed's October meeting and even the policy path into 2026. In addition, JOLTS job openings, the ISM manufacturing index, eurozone CPI, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision will also divert market attention.
The outlook for US-Iran negotiations is unclear. According to foreign media reports, US President Trump said on September 27 that he expects the United States and Iran to restart negotiations within the next week. Trump also said he has "been considering" whether to resume military strikes on Iran, while US forces are helping transport "large amounts of oil" out of the Strait of Hormuz. The outlet, citing regional sources, said a new round of indirect talks between the US and Iran is expected as early as the 28th, with mediators such as Qatar brokering, but major differences remain between the two sides on key issues. Iran wants the talks to focus on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US maritime blockade on Iran, while the Trump administration demands that Iran agree to concessions on the nuclear issue. However, Iranian media reported on the 28th that Iran's delegation has no plans to meet with the US side in New York. According to earlier reports, Iran proposed that if the United States lifts the maritime blockade, cancels oil sales sanctions, and restores a regional ceasefire, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within seven days. However, Trump confirmed to media on September 26 that he had rejected Iran's proposal.
Goldman Sachs: US stocks are showing a "strong index, weak confidence" pattern, and a catch-up rally may become the main theme of the next phase. Goldman Sachs said US equities are currently displaying an unusual pattern: strong index performance but weak investor confidence, which means the market still has room to rise further, and stocks previously left behind by AI leaders may be poised for a catch-up rally. The S&P 500 has gained 14% so far this year, but Goldman Sachs' US equity sentiment indicator has fallen to -0.9, matching its March low. Goldman strategist Ben Snider and his team said in a September 25 report that this reading means investors still have room to increase equity exposure if the macroeconomic environment improves. At the same time, Goldman's preferred market breadth indicator has fallen to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble era. For investors, this divergence could be significant if uncertainties around interest rates and economic growth fade. Goldman believes there is room both for the broader market to rise and for lagging stocks to rebound, though unusually narrow market breadth could also lead to continued volatility in momentum trades.
JPMorgan is bullish on US tech stocks regaining investor favor: cooling positioning and lower valuations create room. JPMorgan's strategist team believes that as crowding in positioning declines, earnings remain strong, and valuations become more realistic, tech stocks will regain some of the momentum lost since the end of the first half, and investors are expected to re-engage with the sector. The team led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a Monday report that the pause in the rally over the past three months has made positioning cleaner and share prices less expensive, and combined with rising capital expenditure and persistently strong earnings, "this should support investors re-engaging with the sector." Tech stocks are still substantially outperforming the S&P 500 this year, but the rally has cooled in recent months amid concerns that massive AI spending may not deliver the returns optimists assume. Matejka wrote: "We doubt there will ultimately be a marked slowdown, because this race remains an existential, winner-takes-all contest." JPMorgan said that although the scale of gains seen in the first half is unlikely to repeat, opportunities remain.
Retail investors retreat, institutions take over! Under the US Treasury storm, "smart money" is not withdrawing but moving in: $18.4 billion in options flows into US stocks, with AI still the top choice. The latest data shows institutional investors are taking over the lead in the US stock market. After years of strong buying, retail traders appear to be gradually stepping back. Meanwhile, Vanda Research data shows that large investors have continued to steadily hold stocks in the face of surging US Treasury yields. Vanda global market strategist Viraj Patel wrote in a note to clients last Friday: "Amid heightened macro volatility this week, institutional investors showed unexpected resilience." Data shows institutional investors' options inflows reached $18.4 billion, about triple the average for September in previous years. Patel said that although 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in more than a decade, large-scale inflows still rose over the past five trading days. He believes that beneath the broader risk-off narrative, this is a "fairly constructive signal" hidden in institutional investors' risk appetite. He noted that amid market turbulence, institutional traders are selectively positioning in artificial intelligence (AI)-related names.
Morgan Stanley: The US Treasury market is experiencing a "perfect storm." Morgan Stanley pointed out that resilient economic growth, sticky inflation, energy market intervention risks, a hawkish Fed, corporate bond issuance, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty over Treasury operations are all pushing yields higher. Since March, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year US Treasury yields have risen by about 120 to 150 basis points in total; after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, the market priced in nearly 100 basis points of additional tightening. Morgan Stanley believes the market may be overestimating the eventual scale of rate hikes, but in the short term there is a lack of fundamental catalysts to drive expectations toward a dovish shift.
Individual Stock News
US tech stocks broadly fell in pre-market trading. On Monday before the US market opened, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell more than 3%, while Intel (INTC.US) and Meta (META.US) dropped nearly 3%. Western Digital (WDC.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and AMD (AMD.US) declined more than 2%, while Micron Technology (MU.US) and Seagate Technology (STX.US) fell nearly 2%. In optical communications stocks, Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), Marvell Technology (MRVL.US), Corning (GLW.US), and Coherent (COHR.US) all fell more than 2%, while Nokia (NOK.US) and Lumentum (LITE.US) dropped more than 1%.
Nvidia's massive buyback! Nvidia announced it will increase its stock repurchase authorization by $150 billion, bringing the total buyback program to $235 billion; the company expects to execute the repurchase plan before fiscal 2028. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said: "Nvidia's growth is driven by an unprecedented platform shift, the transition to artificial intelligence and accelerated computing. Our ample cash flow allows us to invest in the technologies driving this transformation and return capital to shareholders. This authorization reflects our confidence in the long-term opportunities ahead." As of press time, Nvidia rose nearly 1% in Monday pre-market trading.
Starlink, lunar missions, and space computing all depend on it! SpaceX's Starship Flight 14 aims for first orbital insertion and deployment of a new generation of satellites. SpaceX plans to launch its giant Starship rocket early Monday local time, aiming to send the spacecraft into orbit for the first time. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) confirmed by email that it issued a "SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Flight 14 launch and reentry operations license authorization" on September 26. With Starship's 14th test flight, Elon Musk's aerospace and defense company also plans to deploy 26 new Starlink V3 satellites. Starship is the core vehicle of SpaceX's expansion strategy. The company is counting on the giant rocket to scale up its Starlink connectivity business, which as of the second quarter was SpaceX's largest and only profitable segment.
A $1,999 foldable iPhone is on the way, but Apple faces a patent damages ruling of more than $5.7 billion. US consumer electronics giant Apple, while ramping up a foldable iPhone and AI growth businesses, faces a haptic technology patent damages ruling exceeding $5.7 billion. On September 25, a federal jury in California found that Apple's Taptic Engine used in some iPhones and Apple Watches infringed two patents held by Taction Technology. Apple denied using the other company's technology and made clear it will appeal. This is a jury verdict that may still be affected by subsequent judicial proceedings, and the market has not ultimately interpreted it as Apple having already paid damages. For investors, the focus is on the final liability and its cash flow impact, rather than directly concluding that the competitiveness of Apple's core products has reversed.
TotalEnergies increases fourth-quarter buybacks to $2.5 billion, promises dividend growth of more than 5% annually through 2030. TotalEnergies committed to raising its dividend by more than 5% annually through 2030 and increasing stock buybacks. The French energy giant said in a statement on Monday that it will repurchase $2.5 billion of shares in the fourth quarter of 2026 and buy back $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2027. That is larger than the previously planned $1.5 billion buyback for the July-to-September quarter. The company expects its debt-to-equity ratio to be below 10% by the end of this year. Although since the outbreak of the US-Iran war at the end of February this year, TotalEnergies and some of its peers have been forced to halt oil and gas production around the Persian Gulf, they are benefiting from soaring crude and fuel prices triggered by conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.
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