The global tin market is characterized by a persistent tight supply-demand balance, with supply growth lagging significantly behind demand growth for the year, leading to a projected small supply deficit.
Key fundamentals indicate that the global refined tin supply is expected to grow at a much slower pace than demand. Visible inventories are forecast to decline further by year-end compared to June levels, with a low-inventory environment likely to persist throughout the year. The global average cost of production for tin ore continues to shift upward, with the 90th percentile cost projected to reach $54,000 per tonne by 2030, establishing a solid cost floor for tin prices.
Primary Market Drivers
Potential market catalysts include a more severe-than-expected impact from Myanmar's rainy season, further delaying actual mine resumption progress; a further tightening of Indonesia's export quotas or the implementation of a windfall tax policy; and a significant sequential rebound in orders from the AI industry chain, reigniting sentiment around tin as a "computing power metal."
Core Market Perspective
From a macroeconomic perspective, persistently weak expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2026, coupled with resilient inflation supporting elevated US dollar and Treasury yields, continue to pressure London Metal Exchange (LME) tin valuations. This compresses the price ratio between domestic and international markets and weakens the import window for tin concentrate. Repeated geopolitical tensions, such as those between the US and Iran, disrupt market risk appetite. Domestically, stable growth policies provide a mild cushion for industrial consumption. Two-way fluctuations in the Renminbi only offer temporary relief for import cost pressures. The interplay of liquidity expectations amplifies the volatility range for tin prices.
On the supply side, the structural shortage in global tin ore is difficult to alleviate. The rainy season in Myanmar's Wa State disrupts mining and transportation, with resumption increments falling short of expectations. Indonesia is tightening refined tin export quotas and plans to increase mining taxes and fees. Ongoing geopolitical disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continue to constrain the inflow of overseas ore. Domestically, the grade of local Chinese tin ore is declining year by year, making smelting raw materials heavily reliant on imports. Incremental supply from recycled tin is limited. For the full year, the growth rate of refined tin supply is far below that of demand. Ore-side disturbances will continue to establish a cost floor for tin prices.
Demand exhibits a divergent pattern of traditional weakness and emerging high growth. Traditional 3C consumer electronics like mobile phones and PCs continue to weaken, with downstream buyers purchasing on-demand at high prices, suppressing short-term spot volume. However, demand for high-end tin paste and solder balls is expanding, driven by AI servers and advanced semiconductor packaging. The iteration towards N-type photovoltaic cells and electronic components in new energy vehicles are also pulling incremental tin demand. Year-end inventory restocking by downstream sectors in the fourth quarter provides seasonal support. A small supply-demand deficit is expected to be maintained for the full year.
Investment Strategy Overview
Considering these three factors, tin prices are expected to maintain high and wide fluctuations in the second half of the year, supported by a tight supply-demand balance but pressured by macro liquidity constraints. Factors such as Myanmar's rainy season, changes in Indonesia's export policies, and shifts in AI industry chain orders could all bring about periodic upward pulses. Significant downside is relatively limited, constrained by raw material scarcity. The main Shanghai tin futures contract is projected to trade within a high range of 350,000 to 450,000 yuan per tonne, with a low probability of a sharp, deep decline. Trading strategy is advised to focus on range-bound oscillation. Light positions can be established on dips based on the long-term logic, but chasing rallies should be done cautiously. Investors should remain vigilant about the risk of corrections stemming from weaker-than-expected demand or a shift in the macroeconomic environment.
Market Performance in H1 2026
The first quarter of 2026 saw domestic and international tin prices generally follow a pattern of "rushing higher, then retreating, with wide fluctuations." Renewed tensions in Myanmar's Kutkai region in northern Shan State sparked market concerns over the Myanmar tin ore supply chain. Combined with multiple supply-side disturbances including tightened Indonesian export quotas and geopolitical conflicts in the DRC, and optimistic expectations for AI computing power demand, tin prices surged from around 250,000 yuan/tonne at the start of the year, with the main Shanghai contract nearly reaching 470,000 yuan/tonne. However, entering March, as Indonesia's final quotas were announced, Myanmar's resumption process made substantive progress, and domestic smelter operating rates recovered, the logic of supply tightness was disproven, and fundamentals shifted towards marginal easing. Simultaneously, traditional consumer electronics and the photovoltaic industry were in their off-season, with high prices suppressing rigid downstream demand, leading to continuous accumulation of social inventories. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in mid-March triggered crude oil volatility and a rise in macro risk-off sentiment, prompting capital flight from risk assets. Tin prices experienced a significant plunge at the end of the quarter, erasing earlier gains and returning to a consolidation range.
From April to May, driven by expectations of an Indonesian windfall tax, supply contraction in Myanmar, and the fermentation of AI demand, Shanghai tin once touched 450,000 yuan/tonne and LME tin approached $58,000/tonne. In June, due to profit-taking by longs and fluctuations in macro sentiment, Shanghai tin quickly retreated below 400,000 yuan/tonne, with LME tin also falling below $50,000/tonne. However, supported by low inventories and the supply-demand deficit, the extent of the pullback was limited, and prices overall remained within a high-range consolidation.
Global Tin Ore Supply: Scarce Resources, Low Elasticity
Tin is a rare metal with low crustal abundance. Its resource reserves show a declining trend year by year, making its scarcity and strategic importance increasingly prominent.
According to US Geological Survey statistics, global tin ore reserves in 2025 were approximately 6 million tonnes, with annual global production around 300,000 tonnes. The global static reserve-to-production ratio is about 20 years, showing some increase from 2024 (14 years) but still one of the lower ratios among non-ferrous metals. Indonesia's tin ore reserves surpassed China's in 2025, holding 1.4 million tonnes, accounting for 23.3% of the global total.
As ore grades decline and costs for labor, raw materials, and energy rise, global tin ore production costs are increasing annually. Data from the International Tin Association (ITA) shows that in 2022, the 90th/75th/50th percentile of the global fully-loaded cost for tin ore was $25,600/$22,600/$15,600 per tonne, up 8.9%/14.4%/8.5% respectively from 2020. It is projected that by 2027, the 90th percentile cost will rise to $33,800/tonne, a 2% increase from 2022, with the cost center continuing to rise. By 2030, the 90th percentile is expected to reach $54,000/tonne, a 110% increase compared to 2022.
China, as the world's largest tin ore producer, saw output of approximately 24,700 metal tonnes from January to April 2026, a year-on-year increase of 600 metal tonnes. While China accounts for 50% of global refined tin output, its tin ore supply constitutes only 27%, creating an imbalanced supply-demand structure that results in high dependence on imported ore.
China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 tonnes (approximately 6,408 metal tonnes), up 7.07% month-on-month and 25.61% year-on-year, an increase of 1,221 metal tonnes from April. Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 tonnes, up 71.41% year-on-year. The change in supply from Myanmar is particularly notable: this strong rebound was primarily driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore. Imports from Myanmar in May reached 6,634 tonnes, a staggering 384.5% year-on-year increase, with the January-May cumulative figure soaring 203.49% year-on-year. In contrast, imports from countries other than Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, but the May single-month figure still fell 15.23% year-on-year, indicating a relatively slower recovery in non-Myanmar ore supply.
Myanmar's resumption progress has fallen short of expectations. The Wa State Industry and Mineral Resources Administration issued a notice on February 27th regarding the process for sharing dewatering costs for deep mine shafts, aiming to accelerate the resumption of high-grade tin mining areas in low-altitude regions. However, the actual resumption of Myanmar tin mining has been slower than market expectations. Since the lifting of mining restrictions in Wa State late last year, the market anticipated a rapid recovery in supply. The reality involves stricter explosive approvals following a factory explosion, multiple approval processes (dewatering, materials), safety inspections, and the onset of the rainy season from May to July, which causes open-pit mine flooding and road blockages, slowing mining and transportation resumption. April ore imports were less than 5,000 tonnes, only half the peak level before the 2022 mining ban. However, the positive factor of slow resumption in Myanmar's Wa State has been largely priced in. With no major short-term shutdowns or safety整顿 events, the expected supply contraction from the rainy season has not fully materialized, which to some extent limits the upside potential for tin prices.
On February 13, 2026, Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that studies are being conducted on banning the export of various raw materials, including tin, in the coming years to promote the substitution of raw material exports with downstream products. This reflects Indonesia's focus on extending the tin industry chain, and the form and pace of policy implementation warrant close attention.
Geopolitical conflicts and the Ebola outbreak in the DRC directly affect the pace of refined tin exports. The Ebola outbreak had spread to Goma in North Kivu province by May, directly threatening the Bisie mine (annual capacity 17,000 tonnes, about 6% of global supply), which had just resumed operations in March after an armed conflict shutdown. Another shutdown would be a consecutive blow.
According to the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global tin ore production from January to April 2026 was 102,100 tonnes.
Incremental new tin mine projects globally in 2026 are limited, consisting mainly of small-scale projects, tailings reprocessing, resumptions, and technical upgrades, with no large-scale new mines concentrated for commissioning. Global new tin ore supply is estimated at 21,000–24,000 tonnes. The core increment comes from resumption in Myanmar's Wa State (approx. 6,000–9,000 tonnes). In China, the main contributors are the second-phase expansion of the Yinman project (commissioning end-2026, reaching capacity in 2027, approx. 2,500 tonnes) and the Weilasituo lithium-tin mine (approx. 1,500 tonnes). Overseas additions include Australia's Taronga mine (approx. 2,000 tonnes), Ardlethan tailings reprocessing (approx. 1,000 tonnes, potentially contributing over 3,000 tonnes in 2027, ramping to 5,000 tonnes in 2028), Brazil's Massangana tailings (approx. 1,000 tonnes), Morocco's Achmmach and satellite mines (approx. 1,000 tonnes), and the DRC's MPAMA South (ramp-up approx. 2,000–4,000 tonnes). However, significant uncertainties remain on the supply side in 2026 for the DRC, Myanmar, Nigeria, etc., due to geopolitics and grade declines. Combined with Indonesia's slowing tin ingot export policy and growth, we believe disruptions will persist in 2026.
Analysis of Global Refined Tin Supply
The latest WBMS report shows global refined tin production from January to April 2026 was 119,300 tonnes, with consumption at 113,500 tonnes, resulting in a supply surplus of 5,800 tonnes.
From a resource endowment perspective, economically recoverable reserves of tin ore globally and domestically have entered a tight phase. Based on current mining rates, the static mining life of existing global tin ore resources is about 15 years, while domestic Chinese reserves are only about 12 years. As primary tin resources dwindle and overseas tin ore supply faces increasing instability due to policy, geopolitical, and weather-related disturbances, tin recycling has become an important direction for industry development. Currently, leading domestic tin producers are focusing on circular economy industrial chains, building integrated industrial loops encompassing mining, smelting, waste recycling, and reuse. Through process technology upgrades, they are improving the comprehensive recovery efficiency of secondary materials like waste circuit boards, tin slag, and tailings, steadily expanding the proportion of recycled tin capacity. Since Myanmar's Wa State imposed a tin mining ban in 2023, the proportion of recycled refined tin output in China has long been maintained in the 20%–35% range, with limited increase. The tight supply of scrap tin raw materials also continues to constrain production at recycling enterprises.
In the first half of 2026, China's cumulative refined tin output was 86,270 tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%. Cumulative recycled tin output was 16,840 tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 14.13%. Three core tin smelters in Yunnan only gradually resumed operations by the end of March, with generally low operating rates initially. Current tin smelting processing fees exhibit the characteristic of "high quoted prices, weak actual transactions." Although quoted fees for 40% tin ore reach 16,000 yuan/tonne, actual transactions are only 14,000–15,000 yuan/tonne, though this is a significant recovery from less than 11,000 yuan/tonne in the same period of 2025. The discrepancy between quotes and transactions is due to two main reasons: first, smelters are still executing previous low-price long-term contracts, pulling down the overall actual fee level; second, tin ore supply remains tight, limiting smelters' bargaining power. Small and medium-sized smelters are highly dependent on external ore and must actively source ore to maintain production, further constraining the upward space for processing fees.
Indonesia is the world's second-largest refined tin producer, with illegal mining being a major industry issue. It is also the world's largest refined tin exporter, with output accounting for over 17% of the global total. In 2026, the country's annual refined tin production quota is set at 60,000 tonnes, significantly lower than the market expectation of 70,000–80,000 tonnes. Simultaneously, Indonesia plans to impose a windfall tax on tin ore within a 10%–20% range, referencing nickel ore policy, coupled with routine export license reviews. China's tin ingot imports in May fell to 1,838 tonnes, down 11.46% year-on-year. Imports from the core source country, Indonesia, plummeted to 594 tonnes, a sharp 59.82% year-on-year decrease. However, imports from countries other than Indonesia saw explosive growth, surging 151.84% month-on-month and 108.29% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline from Indonesia. Concurrently, potential increases in domestic production combined with import supplements have led to a more relaxed supply of tin ingots domestically. Tin ingot exports in May rebounded to 2,203 tonnes, up 24.46% year-on-year. However, due to a high base in the same period of 2025, cumulative exports from January to May 2026 were 9,322 tonnes, a slight 2.73% year-on-year decrease.
Currently, Indonesia's industrial policy shift is clear, adhering to resource nationalism by increasing taxes/fees, tightening quotas, and integrating industrial resources to promote the localization of the tin industry chain and reduce the outflow of raw and finished materials. The country also plans to rely on state-owned enterprises to coordinate the entire industry chain, integrate private mineral resources, standardize smelting production, and strengthen export controls. Subsequent related regulations are expected to continue tightening.
Analysis of Global Refined Tin Demand
If the supply side is the "safety cushion" for tin prices, then the demand side is its "room for imagination."
Tin's core demand comes from solder. The rapid development of the global AI computing power industry is driving continuous growth in demand for high-performance computing equipment. Tin-based solder is a core material for chip and circuit board packaging and connection. AI servers, high-end GPUs, and advanced packaging scenarios like CoWoS and HBM have far higher tin consumption than traditional products. AI and semiconductors have become the core growth engines for tin consumption.
The global semiconductor industry is gradually recovering. Overseas tech companies' AI capital expenditures remain in an expansion phase. Coupled with consumer electronics iteration and upgrades, demand for high-end solder is expected to be steadily released. Furthermore, tin prices are highly correlated with the performance of the technology sector. As a core raw material in the computing power industry chain, tin will continue to benefit deterministically from AI industry development. Current AI capital expenditure is just beginning: first-quarter reports from US tech giants show AI-related capital expenditure is still expanding significantly. This spending will ultimately translate into actual demand for tin. Two important characteristics of tin are worth noting: first, tin's cost share in solder is very small, making downstream sensitivity to tin price fluctuations weak and demand relatively rigid. Second, linkage with tech stocks: tin prices are highly correlated with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Chinese tech stock performance. As long as the tech sector rally persists, the demand narrative for tin remains. In summary, tin is a "deterministically benefiting" commodity in the AI industry chain.
It is noteworthy that due to rising domestic labor, land, and environmental costs in China, along with changes in the global trade landscape, large electronics contract manufacturers in South China are accelerating relocation to Southeast Asia. With comprehensive labor costs in Southeast Asia being only one-third of China's, and given the context of US-China trade friction, Southeast Asian production sites can leverage relevant free trade agreements for low or zero tariffs to the US, bypassing trade barriers. After relocation, these companies' electronic terminals and supporting solder products are still primarily exported to the US. This industrial transfer trend places phased pressure on downstream tin consumption in China. Additionally, recent market concerns about an "AI bubble burst" have emerged. Speculative capital flight has caused tin prices to drop rapidly from highs, and volatility has amplified. Downstream观望 and paused inventory restocking, leading to accumulation of visible inventories and further price pressure. Currently, we believe the market is shifting more from "AI premium" back to the fundamental demand of traditional electronics + photovoltaics + new energy vehicles. Even if a bubble bursts, AI remains a long-term trend, with only a slowdown in growth rate, not a return to zero.
Photovoltaics merely provide a stable demand base for tin, with no incremental pull. The market's trading focus has completely shifted to AI computing power and advanced packaging. Photovoltaic tin demand in Q2 fell sharply quarter-on-quarter compared to Q1, contributing weakly to tin prices, only providing bottom support without the ability to catalyze price movements. Domestically, the cancellation of PV export tax rebates starting April led to concentrated production scheduling and export order grabbing by module manufacturers in March, causing a temporary surge in tin demand for PV ribbon. After entering April, overseas orders were overdrawn by the抢装, and domestic module operating rates declined明显 month-on-month. PV tin demand weakened rapidly, with ribbon enterprises only maintaining rigid procurement and showing low willingness for active inventory replenishment. From May to June, the industry entered the traditional off-season, with demand持续疲软.
Domestically, pressure on centralized PV grid absorption is rising, slowing ground-mounted power station projects, with only distributed PV maintaining stable installation. Overseas procurement节奏 in Europe and Southeast Asia has phased slowdowns. Coupled with N-type cell细线化 and shingling processes slightly reducing tin consumption per GW, PV tin demand in Q2 overall exhibited weak off-season characteristics with limited增量. Previously high and fluctuating tin prices made downstream solder material manufacturers wary, leading them to primarily consume their own inventory for raw material procurement, providing insufficient现货拉动 to the futures market.
In Q3, domestic ground-mounted PV projects are集中开工, local distributed PV subsidy implementation is advancing, and module production scheduling is expected to increase month by month. Overseas PV installation peaks in North America and Southeast Asia are开启, with module export orders improving quarter-on-quarter, driving up PV ribbon operating rates. PV tin demand is有望 to recover quarter-on-quarter compared to Q2. However, the recovery in Q3 PV tin demand is expected to be温和, unlikely to see explosive growth.
Global new PV installations in 2026 are projected at 600 GW, corresponding to annual PV ribbon tin demand of approximately 32,300 tonnes. Its growth elasticity is far weaker than the AI server and advanced packaging sectors. Annual PV tin demand follows a seasonal curve of "high in early year, trough in Q2, gradual quarterly recovery in second half, peaking in Q4."
Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles use only 200–350g of tin per vehicle. New energy vehicles use 600–1000g per vehicle, 2–3 times that of燃油车, with the增量集中在 BMS battery management systems, motor controllers, high-voltage connectors, in-vehicle domain control PCBs, LiDAR, and in-vehicle computing chips. The penetration rate of L2+/L3 advanced driver-assistance systems continues to increase, further raising the number of PCB layers and solder joint density per vehicle,持续增厚 tin consumption per vehicle. The automotive sector's tin demand relies entirely on lead-free tin-silver-copper solder, where tin's cost share in the solder is极低. Downstream automakers and electronics factories have weak sensitivity to tin price fluctuations, and demand is relatively rigid.
Domestic demand for both燃油车 and新能源 vehicles faced pressure in Q2. Adjustments to purchase tax policies and终端 price wars suppressed consumer willingness. Passenger vehicle retail sales fell year-on-year from April to June. Automakers actively controlled production and destocked整车 inventories. Operating rates at upstream automotive PCB, wiring harness, and electronic control enterprises declined quarter-on-quarter compared to Q1. Solder procurement仅维持刚需, with no active inventory replenishment. Domestic automotive tin demand weakened quarter-on-quarter.
Currently, China's new energy vehicle exports maintain high growth. Orders from overseas factories in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America are stable. Export orders for supporting in-vehicle electronics manufacturers are饱满, offsetting the decline in domestic demand and preventing a大幅萎缩 in automotive tin demand.
In Q3, the traditional domestic automotive consumption旺季开启, with multiple high-end smart electric vehicle models集中上市交付. Deliveries of L2+/L3 ADAS models are大幅提升, driving growth in shipments of high-tin-consumption components like in-vehicle domain controllers and LiDAR, shifting the per-vehicle tin consumption中枢上移.
Inventory Performance
Current global visible tin inventories total less than 30,000 tonnes, covering only about 3 weeks of global refined tin consumption. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a historically low level.
July is the traditional off-season bottom for electronics and photovoltaics, with weak terminal operations and low downstream restocking意愿. Tin ore mining in Myanmar is slightly受限 by the rainy season, but previously stockpiled ore can still support smelting. Indonesian exports show小幅修复, leading to a slight increase in short-term circulating supply domestically and overseas. LME and domestic social inventories face slight accumulation pressure, with inventory levels rising modestly but to a limited extent.
From August to September, the market may switch to a destocking周期. Overseas AI capital expenditure continues to materialize, with orders for servers and GPU advanced packaging回暖 quarter-on-quarter. Domestically, N-type PV capacity continues to ramp up, module production scheduling recovers, and solder material enterprises gradually begin提前备货. The fourth quarter is the旺季; consumer electronics新品 launch their备货周期, leading to a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in physical tin consumption.
For the full year, a global refined tin supply-demand deficit exists. The second half is expected to整体 show a trend of "slight accumulation in July,持续 destocking from August to December." Year-end visible inventories globally are projected to be further below June levels. The low-inventory格局 is expected to persist throughout the year, continuously providing bottom support for tin prices.
Global Supply-Demand Balance and Conclusion
From a macroeconomic perspective, persistently weak expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2026, coupled with resilient inflation supporting elevated US dollar and Treasury yields, continue to pressure London Metal Exchange (LME) tin valuations. This compresses the price ratio between domestic and international markets and weakens the import window for tin concentrate. Repeated geopolitical tensions, such as those between the US and Iran, disrupt market risk appetite. Domestically, stable growth policies provide a mild cushion for industrial consumption. Two-way fluctuations in the Renminbi only offer temporary relief for import cost pressures. The interplay of liquidity expectations amplifies the volatility range for tin prices.
On the supply side, the structural shortage in global tin ore is difficult to alleviate. The rainy season in Myanmar's Wa State disrupts mining and transportation, with resumption increments falling short of expectations. Indonesia is tightening refined tin export quotas and plans to increase mining taxes and fees. Ongoing geopolitical disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continue to constrain the inflow of overseas ore. Domestically, the grade of local Chinese tin ore is declining year by year, making smelting raw materials heavily reliant on imports. Incremental supply from recycled tin is limited. For the full year, the growth rate of refined tin supply is far below that of demand. Ore-side disturbances will continue to establish a cost floor for tin prices.
Demand exhibits a divergent pattern of traditional weakness and emerging high growth. Traditional 3C consumer electronics like mobile phones and PCs continue to weaken, with downstream buyers purchasing on-demand at high prices, suppressing short-term spot volume. However, demand for high-end tin paste and solder balls is expanding, driven by AI servers and advanced semiconductor packaging. The iteration towards N-type photovoltaic cells and electronic components in new energy vehicles are also pulling incremental tin demand. Year-end inventory restocking by downstream sectors in the fourth quarter provides seasonal support. A small supply-demand deficit is expected to be maintained for the full year.
Considering these three factors, tin prices are expected to maintain high and wide fluctuations in the second half of the year, supported by a tight supply-demand balance but pressured by macro liquidity constraints. Factors such as Myanmar's rainy season, changes in Indonesia's export policies, and shifts in AI industry chain orders could all bring about periodic upward pulses. Significant downside is relatively limited, constrained by raw material scarcity. The main Shanghai tin futures contract is projected to trade within a high range of 350,000 to 450,000 yuan per tonne, with a low probability of a sharp, deep decline. Trading strategy is advised to focus on range-bound oscillation. Light positions can be established on dips based on the long-term logic, but chasing rallies should be done cautiously. Investors should remain vigilant about the risk of corrections stemming from weaker-than-expected demand or a shift in the macroeconomic environment.
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