On May 8, the three major A-share indices opened collectively lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.07%. In terms of sector performance, AI applications, pharmaceuticals, and baijiu led the gains, whereas semiconductors, optical communications, and memory chips were among the top decliners.
Looking at the market outlook, Zhongtai Securities stated that against the backdrop of global geopolitical disturbances and a strengthened national security orientation, energy security has become a key medium-to-long-term allocation theme. Zhongtai Securities believes that, overall, A-share profits saw a significant recovery in the first quarter of 2026, with both revenue and profit growth rates rebounding to relatively high levels seen in 2021-2022, showing typical characteristics of "aggregate improvement with structural divergence." However, structurally, this round of profit growth is not a broad-based recovery but is concentrated in a few high-growth sectors: the TMT industry chain centered on AI and the power equipment sector have become the main sources of增量, driving significant performance improvements on the STAR Market and ChiNext Board. Meanwhile, upstream resource products like non-ferrous metals achieved high growth driven by dual demand from "new energy + AI." In contrast, profit recovery in traditional consumption and cyclical sectors remains relatively slow, with some industries still in the early stages of destocking or demand recovery.
Investment recommendations: 1. Rotation within the tech sector: shifting from overseas mapping to domestic substitution. The current tech theme is gradually shifting from ChiNext-focused areas represented by optical modules to STAR Market-centric areas like semiconductor equipment and chips. 2. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical disturbances and a strengthened national security focus, energy security is a medium-to-long-term allocation priority. Sectors like the new energy chain and power grid equipment have clear policy support and capital expenditure logic. 3. Cyclical sectors: combining anti-involution and supply contraction may lead to a repricing of resource products. Focus on resource sectors represented by coal, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, as well as the agricultural product chain.
CITIC Securities advises maintaining a K-shaped mindset and continuously focusing on areas where China has a competitive advantage. The firm believes that AI and energy/chemicals form a new barbell structure in the current perspective of global turbulence. The immense potential of AI compels major powers to invest due to competition and security concerns; vulnerabilities in the petrochemical energy supply chain mean that even with knowledge of ample long-term oil supply, the globe hesitates to invest heavily in fossil fuel processing industries, also due to competition and security concerns. The commonality is that both create sustainable supply-demand gaps, whether driven by demand or supply contraction. Amid turbulence, capturing opportunities in other industries becomes more difficult, necessitating a constant K-shaped mindset and a sustained focus on advantageous segments. The underlying logic for allocation remains the re-rating of pricing power in China's advantaged manufacturing sectors, with the most representative industries being new energy, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment. Continue to closely monitor the progress of domestic AI; on the hardware side, the logic of "volume" explosion remains the direction with the largest expectation gap in the AI chain, maintaining a positive view on domestic computing power. As top domestic large language models transition from "usable" to "useful," domestic models will capture a share of the high-value, paid market. At that point, the growth slope of domestic cloud service demand will steepen, cloud services will become increasingly scarce, the possibility of price wars will continuously decrease, and industry-wide cloud service revenue growth will emerge. Therefore, for the next stage of domestic AI applications, the best choice is cloud providers. Additionally, it is recommended to continue increasing allocation to some low-valuation varieties, focusing on brokers and insurance. For cyclical products experiencing price increases, the景气度 of cyclical growth products like the AIDC chain and lithium battery chain remains persistent, but the expectation gap is relatively smaller, and the trend of narrowing focus is faster; it is advised to focus on the tightest supply-demand links. For traditional cyclical energy/chemical industries, de-emphasize short-term stock price博弈 and firmly trade based on the facts of shipping lane disruptions, physical shortages, and widening price spreads.
Founder Securities noted that the ChiNext Index hit a new 11-year high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. For the后市, focus on three major directions. Looking across the entire month of May, against the backdrop of improving global trade patterns and共振in tech industry highlights, the market is expected to end its震荡and move towards a new round of upward trend, similar to the period from June to October last year. As external factors weaken, the improvement in the domestic economic situation will gradually be discovered and fully priced in by the market. Investors are advised to actively position for the main upward trend within the year. Against the backdrop of easing US-Iran tensions, rising expectations for a Trump visit to China, and high景气度in the tech industry, the A-share market is expected to延续its upward trend. In terms of allocation, focus on the following directions: 1. New Quality Productive Forces方向: Key areas for the "15th Five-Year Plan" such as artificial intelligence, embodied AI, new energy, controlled nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace are worth attention. 2. Directions benefiting from a weaker US dollar: Gold, non-ferrous metals, as well as Hong Kong dividend stocks and Hang Seng Tech stocks which have high dividend yields and valuation repair potential. 3. Safe asset方向: Focus on the spillover of overseas security demand. Key recommendations include: new energy, photovoltaics, wind power, energy storage, power equipment; Materials and equipment: coal chemicals, minor metals, optical fiber cables, construction machinery.
Comments