Zhongtai Securities: Power Production Marketization Trend Clear, Solar Demand Enters Observation Window

Stock News12-10

According to Zhongtai Securities' research report, China's newly installed solar capacity reached 252.9GW from January to October 2025, marking a 39.5% year-on-year increase. Influenced by Policy Document No. 136, solar installation demand was front-loaded in 2025, with significant rush installations in Q2 followed by a short-term decline in Q3. August saw a temporary low point before gradual recovery in September and October.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) projects China's new solar installations for 2025 to reach 270-300GW, remaining largely stable with a year-on-year change of -3% to +8%. The report notes that China's solar installations will directly impact global capacity. Looking ahead to 2026, neither CPIA nor major consulting firms have provided clear forecasts for new installations.

Zhongtai Securities believes that post-marketization of electricity, solar feed-in tariffs have declined, potentially leading to a temporary observation period for new solar projects. However, considering supply-side reforms, stabilizing supply-demand balance, and ensuring sustainable industry development, China's new solar installations in 2026 are expected to remain above 200GW.

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