After a period of correction, the valuations of tech stocks have declined, and since August, growth sectors like technology have shown signs of a resurgence. On August 5, despite the negative rumor that "the US plans to ban the import of new Chinese optical modules," multiple semiconductor equipment ETFs hit their daily price limits during trading.
ETF fund flows, however, painted a contrasting picture to the lively market performance. Although the overall ETF market posted a positive return of 1.72%, the fund side saw a massive net outflow of 314.1 billion yuan, with over 303 billion yuan flowing out of stock ETFs. More than 140 billion yuan exited the "light" sector.
As the absolute market mainstay, stock ETFs hold 2.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 56% of the total ETF market. On August 5, stock ETFs averaged a nearly 2% gain, but fund net outflows reached 303.57 billion yuan. Looking at the direction of capital withdrawal, broad-based ETFs saw net outflows of 180.7 billion yuan, while thematic ETFs had net outflows of 80.41 billion yuan, together accounting for 86% of the total. This reflects capital moving out of large-cap broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and STAR 50, as well as hot sectors such as new energy and AI.
Specifically to the linked indices, the top five indices for net outflows on August 5 were semiconductors (multiple indices combined net outflow of 87.9 billion yuan), the STAR 50 Index (net outflow of 56.1 billion yuan), the CSI 300 Index (net outflow of 42.8 billion yuan), the CSI 1000 Index (net outflow of 23.3 billion yuan), and the ChiNext Index (net outflow of 21.7 billion yuan). Investors, while lamenting "standing in the light again," have been "exiting at the speed of light."
Wind data shows that although ETFs linked to the STAR 50, semiconductors, and chips saw their scale increase significantly, redemption data indicates that capital is accelerating its departure, with total redemptions from these ETFs exceeding 140 billion yuan. In fact, the capital leaving the stock market did not massively enter traditional bond ETFs or money market fund ETFs, suggesting a lack of a strong risk-off sentiment.
On August 5, almost no ETFs saw significant net subscriptions. ETFs linked to the SGE Gold 9999 and SSH Gold Stock indices saw the highest net subscriptions, with a combined net inflow exceeding 15 billion yuan. Individual ETFs were similarly unremarkable. The Huaan Gold ETF saw net subscriptions of 900 million yuan, making it the only ETF in the market with net subscriptions exceeding 500 million yuan. The Hua Bao Cash Plus and Yong Ying Gold Stock ETF received net inflows of over 400 million yuan each. Additionally, the Da Cheng Nonferrous Metals ETF, Guo Tai 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF, Guang Fa Media ETF, and Hua Bao ChiNext AI ETF saw net inflows at the forefront.
Leading fund companies benefited significantly from the market's upward movement, with most seeing their ETF scale increase. Among them, China Asset Management saw the largest ETF scale increase on August 5, at 7.035 billion yuan. E Fund Management followed closely with a growth of 6.26 billion yuan. Guotai Asset Management and Harvest Fund Management also saw significant scale growth. China Asset Management and E Fund remain the only two members of the "6000 Billion Club" in the market.
E Fund's ETFs now have a total scale of 632.14 billion yuan. The ChiNext STAR ETF (E Fund) saw net inflows of 240 million yuan, bringing its total scale to 17.76 billion yuan. The A500 ETF (E Fund) had net inflows of 200 million yuan, with a total scale of 28.37 billion yuan. Furthermore, the AI ETF (E Fund), Innovative Drug ETF (E Fund), and Securities and Insurance ETF (E Fund) were among those with leading net inflows. Wind data shows that China Asset Management's ETFs now have a total scale of 648.629 billion yuan. The Consumer Electronics ETF (China Asset Management) and Power Grid Equipment ETF (China Asset Management) led in daily net inflows, with 259 million yuan and 183 million yuan respectively, bringing their total scales to 3.47 billion yuan and 21.033 billion yuan.
Differing Views on AI Persist
Will the market see another shift in August? Have AI stocks, after a round of decline, returned to a reasonable valuation range? How should investors position themselves amidst the volatile market? Multiple fund companies have offered their interpretations of the market changes.
At a recent investment strategy meeting, the director of the Hybrid Asset Investment Department at a major fund company stated that after this round of decline, their conviction in the AI industry trend has actually strengthened, as AI's fundamentals haven't changed much. The key observation points will shift to model companies, with a focus on revenue realization and data center ROI. They are more optimistic about optical communication and semiconductors. The global semiconductor cycle has already begun, and A-share semiconductor stocks are moving from an opposing, rotational relationship with overseas computing power to high synchronization, potentially transitioning from thematic trading to fundamental fulfillment.
However, another fund manager noted that while the AI narrative is grand, it still has a cyclical nature. Stock prices are influenced by factors like crowding, supply side, and demand. Currently, AI crowding is high, the supply side is expected to improve next year, and the demand side needs to wait for new scenarios beyond programming to emerge. When the market corrects to a reasonable range, it becomes a good time to select and buy. They see more potential in consumer goods going abroad in the second half of the year, especially the motorcycle sector.
A fund company advisor suggests investors seize structural investment opportunities in the volatile market when there is no clear main theme. On one hand, one can focus on sub-sectors with performance support, such as semiconductor equipment and materials, and domestic substitution. On the other hand, one should also consider sectors with valuations at historically low levels. Given the complex and changing market environment, it's not advisable to heavily bet on a single track. They advise sticking to a long-term industrial logic, avoiding chasing gains and selling off losses. A barbell strategy can be used for balanced allocation, and market volatility can be smoothed out through regular fixed investments to rationally engage with industrial investment opportunities.
Recently, gold has gained some attention. Regarding this, a fund manager mentioned that the US ADP employment data for July fell to its lowest level since the start of the year, coupled with the progress of the Strait of Hormuz transit agreement, which has led to falling oil prices. The inflation and interest rate hike expectation chains that previously suppressed gold are loosening simultaneously. Gold prices have returned to the $4,300 per ounce level, while gold stock valuations remain in a historically low range, and the conditions for a double hit in performance and valuation are further developing.
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