Geopolitical tensions are escalating as the United States continues its military strikes against Iran, targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites. Iran has retaliated with attacks on US military bases across several Middle Eastern countries. Concurrently, the White House is preparing for a potential conflict with Iran that could last for days or even weeks. A US official indicated that the current escalation could persist for a week or a month, depending on whether Iran continues to target commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to sources within the Pakistani government, Pakistan and Qatar have established new communication channels with the US and Iran, aiming to halt military actions and encourage both sides to return to negotiations based on the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding." Despite the renewed escalation, Pakistan remains optimistic about upholding the memorandum. On the Federal Reserve front, the list for the new chairman's "Five Major Working Groups" to drive central bank reform has been released, featuring prominent figures from venture capital, technology, academia, and global central banking circles, including Marc Andreessen, Mervyn King, Greg Mankiw, and Thomas Sargent.
Futures Market and Trading Volume:
On 2026-07-09, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at RMB 892.50 per gram and closed at RMB 898.86 per gram, representing a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the overnight session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at RMB 899.74 per gram and closed at RMB 902.40 per gram, a gain of 0.39% from the previous afternoon's close.
On 2026-07-09, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at RMB 14,410.00 per kilogram and closed at RMB 14,403.00 per kilogram, a change of -3.08% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 656,545 contracts, with open interest at 197,820 contracts. In the overnight session, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at RMB 14,484 per kilogram and closed at RMB 14,693 per kilogram, an increase of 2.01% from the previous afternoon's close.
US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring:
On 2026-07-09, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.56%, a change of 0.01% from the previous session. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.35%, a change of -0.01% from the previous day.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes:
On 2026-07-09, for the Au2608 contract, long positions decreased by 4,219 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 2,694 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 332,849 contracts, a change of 36.80% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions increased by 586 contracts, while short positions decreased by 2,968 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,262,599 contracts, a change of 23.01% from the prior session.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:
For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,002.51 tonnes yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tonnes, also unchanged from the prior day.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:
Futures-Spot Basis: On 2026-07-09, the domestic premium for gold was RMB 9.47 per gram, and for silver, it was RMB 321.42 per kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The price ratio between the main Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts was approximately 62.41 yesterday, a change of 2.73% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 69.42, a change of 2.07% from the last trading session.
Fundamental Analysis:
Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D Market Monitoring: On the last trading day (2026-07-09), the trading volume for gold on the SGE was 34,142 kilograms, a change of -2.85% from the previous session. Silver trading volume was 358,056 kilograms, a change of 30.26% from the prior day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 2,370 kilograms.
Trading Strategy
Gold: Neutral
The geopolitical situation is complex and uncertain. Current market risk sentiment is emerging, which may slightly dampen investment demand for gold. In the near term, gold prices are likely to be primarily range-bound, with the Au2608 contract expected to fluctuate within a range of RMB 880 to RMB 930 per gram.
Silver: Neutral
The current logic for silver is similar to that for gold, with prices also expected to remain range-bound. The Ag2608 contract is anticipated to trade within a range of RMB 14,000 to RMB 15,000 per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Hold
Options: Hold
Risk Factors
Overseas liquidity risk.
Continued exit of speculative positions.
Comments