China's domestic refined oil product prices are set for their second reduction of the year this evening.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced that following the last price adjustment on May 21st, international crude oil prices experienced a volatile decline before recently rebounding. The average price over the 10 working days preceding this adjustment is lower than the average over the 10 working days before the previous adjustment.
Based on changes in international market oil prices, starting from 24:00 on June 4th, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) will be reduced by 525 yuan and 505 yuan per ton, respectively.
This marks the eleventh adjustment to domestic refined oil product prices in 2026. For the year to date, price adjustments will now present a pattern of "eight increases, two decreases, and one hold."
According to calculations by Longzhong Information, the reduction translates to approximately 0.40 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline and 0.43 yuan per liter for 0# diesel.
For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost about 20 yuan less.
Monitoring by the NDRC's Price Monitoring Center shows that during this latest pricing cycle (from 24:00 on May 21st to 24:00 on June 4th), international oil prices initially fell before rising.
During the cycle, influenced primarily by the evolving situation between the US and Iran, international oil prices fluctuated downwards before increasing, with the average price for this cycle being lower than the previous one.
In late May, continuous positive signals from US-Iran talks strengthened market expectations for a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, pushing Brent crude futures down to around $92 per barrel.
Entering June, US-Iran negotiations stalled again, and clashes on multiple fronts heightened geopolitical risks, causing international oil prices to turn upward.
Simultaneously, ongoing disputes between the US and Iran over navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz are causing obstructions in crude oil supply chains.
Furthermore, significant reductions in crude supply from Gulf countries and global inventories falling to low levels are expected to continue supporting international oil prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that since late February, supply from Gulf countries has decreased by 14 million barrels per day, accounting for about 15% of global daily consumption.
Goldman Sachs estimates that by the end of May, global total crude oil inventories had fallen to a level equivalent to 98 days of demand, breaching the industry's "100-day警戒线" (alert line).
The NDRC's Price Monitoring Center analysis suggests that the evolution of the US-Iran situation is the core factor influencing the trend of international oil prices.
Recently, Iran indicated a suspension of dialogue with the US and plans to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, while the US claimed an agreement could be reached "within a week."
The increased uncertainty surrounding the talks is expected to amplify short-term volatility in international oil prices, warranting close attention to subsequent developments.
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