On Friday, January 12, the cryptocurrency market once again staged a "rally and retreat" performance, with Bitcoin attempting an upward breakout in the early session but ultimately failing to hold its ground, as the price fell back near the key psychological level of $90,000. EasyMarkets believes that although interest in risk assets persists, bullish momentum appears insufficient before the resolution of major macro policy uncertainties, leaving the crypto market in a delicate repricing phase.
From a fundamental perspective, the latest December employment report from the U.S. Labor Department presented highly complex signals. EasyMarkets indicated that non-farm payroll additions for the previous month were only 50,000, falling short of the market expectation of 60,000, with prior data also undergoing significant downward revisions. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%. This data contradiction has intensified debates about the true state of the labor market. Influenced by such uncertainties, Bitcoin quickly reversed course after briefly touching a high of $92,000, declining nearly 1% over the past 24 hours.
Against a backdrop of strong performance in other risk assets, Bitcoin's stagnation appears particularly pronounced. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes gained 1% and 0.8% respectively, and commodities like gold and crude oil rallied across the board, Bitcoin struggled to attract sufficient liquidity for a breakout. Analysis from relevant institutions suggests this divergence may stem from a reallocation of funds among instruments with different risk appetites. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's January Consumer Sentiment Index edged up to 54, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.2%; the resurgence of inflationary pressures has constrained further release of risk appetite.
Policy uncertainty remains a sword of Damocles hanging over the market. Currently, both legal circles and investors are closely watching the Supreme Court's final ruling on the constitutionality of the tariff system. Although the result was not announced as expected on Friday, the market widely anticipates a new conclusion may arrive next Wednesday. During this period, crypto-related concept stocks suffered widespread losses, with benchmark stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy declining by 2% to 5%.
Regarding the current stalemate in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, EasyMarkets believes that Bitcoin's current oscillation above $90,000 reflects investor caution towards the future regulatory environment and macro inflation trajectory. Although some mining stocks that have successfully pivoted to AI infrastructure showed stable performance, indicating structural opportunities within the industry, in the short term, the direction set by macro policies will play a decisive role in whether Bitcoin can initiate a new round of gains.
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