Another leading brokerage firm has released its first-half performance forecast. CITIC SEC anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233.43 billion yuan for the first six months, marking a year-on-year increase of 69.59%. The performance change is primarily attributed to a stable and positive capital market in the first half of 2026, with the company's various businesses developing in synergy, achieving a record high in operating performance for the same period.
As of July 10th, all 10 listed brokerages that have issued forecasts have reported positive news, confirming a broad-based industry upswing. CITIC SEC and Guotai Haitong have seen their half-year net profits firmly exceed the 200 billion yuan mark, while China Merchants Securities has joined the 100-billion-yuan tier. Smaller and mid-sized brokerages have shown significant earnings elasticity, with Tianfeng Securities forecasting a maximum increase of nearly 700%.
Reasons for Strong Performance
Reviewing the reasons for the robust performance across listed brokerages, brokerage and margin financing businesses remain the fundamental foundation, while the "underwriting + co-investment" business contributes incremental gains. With the deepening of the registration-based IPO system reform, the STAR Market continues to expand, allowing many securities firms to capture excess returns through dual benefits from investment banking underwriting and co-investment. More importantly, the positive momentum in the brokerage sector is expected to continue. In the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the stable and positive trend in the capital market is anticipated to solidify, with A-share trading volume and margin financing scale remaining high, and IPO and M&A activities maintaining a high level of activity.
Sector Performance and Capital Flows
Regarding sector performance, since mid-June, the brokerage sector has notably strengthened from its previous sustained weak performance, with clear signs of capital returning, boosting market confidence. Taking the leading brokerage ETF HuaBao (512000) as an example, it attracted a net capital inflow of 8.39 billion yuan last week alone, and over 21 billion yuan in the past 10 days.
Institutional Outlook
Institutions believe the overall industry sentiment is upward, and there remains room for valuation repair in the brokerage sector. CITIC SEC stated that it remains optimistic about undervalued brokerages, expecting that negative factors such as liquidity pressure may gradually dissipate starting in the second half of the year. The short-term rationale can focus on investment returns and mid-year performance reports, while the long-term logic lies in the broader wave of overseas investment and financing by Chinese enterprises, driving the internationalization and globalization of brokerage business.
High Growth and Low Valuation: Focus on Brokerage Recovery
High industry growth coupled with low valuations warrants attention to the brokerage sector's recovery trend. The Brokerage ETF (512000) and its feeder funds passively track the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks in one basket. It is an efficient investment tool for concentrated exposure to leading brokerages while also covering mid-sized and smaller firms. The latest fund size of Brokerage ETF (512000) exceeds 39.5 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of over 1.2 billion yuan year-to-date, making it a top-tier brokerage ETF in terms of scale and liquidity in the A-share market.
Investment Reminders
A reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant, and short-term price movements do not indicate future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying high attention to position sizing and risk management.
Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc.
ETF Fund Fee Information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund units, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission not exceeding 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to the rates actually charged by securities companies, and no sales service fee is charged. Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the HuaBao CSI All Share Securities Companies ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee (front-end load) is 1,000 yuan per transaction for subscription amounts of 2 million yuan (inclusive) or more, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million yuan (inclusive) and 2 million yuan, and 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, 0.5% for 7 days (inclusive) to 180 days, 0.25% for 180 days (inclusive) to 1 year, and 0% for 1 year (inclusive) or more; no sales service fee is charged. The HuaBao CSI All Share Securities Companies ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days and 0% for 7 days (inclusive) or more. The sales service fee is 0.4%.
Risk Disclosure: The Brokerage ETF HuaBao (512000) and its feeder funds passively track the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, with a base date of June 29, 2007, and a release date of July 15, 2013. The annual price changes of the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index for 2021 to 2025 were -4.95%, -27.37%, 3.04%, 27.26%, and 2.54%, respectively. The index constituents are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its backtested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. This product is issued and managed by HuaBao Fund. Distributors do not bear responsibility for the product's investment, redemption, and risk management. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement, and other fund legal documents to understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and select products suitable for their own risk tolerance. The fund manager assesses the risk rating of the Brokerage ETF as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a suitability rating of C3 or above. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Past fund performance does not predict its future performance. Funds involve risks, and investment requires caution! Sales institutions assess the risk of this fund according to relevant laws and regulations. Investors should pay timely attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund manager. Suitability opinions from different sales institutions may not necessarily be consistent. The fund product risk rating results issued by fund sales institutions shall not be lower than the risk rating results made by the fund manager. The description of the fund's risk-return characteristics in the fund contract and its risk rating may differ due to different considerations. Investors should understand the fund's risk-return profile and make careful choices based on their investment objectives, horizon, experience, and risk tolerance, bearing the risks themselves. The China Securities Regulatory Commission's registration of this fund does not indicate a substantive judgment or guarantee of its investment value, market prospects, or returns. Funds involve risks, and investment requires caution.
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