The National Development and Reform Commission announced on August 28 that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be raised starting at midnight, reflecting recent upward pressure on international crude oil markets.
According to the official notice, the average price of international crude oil during the 10 working days prior to this adjustment was higher than the average during the previous adjustment period on August 14. As a result, the standard-grade gasoline price will increase by 375 yuan per ton, and diesel by 360 yuan per ton, effective from 24:00 on August 28.
Based on calculations from Zhuochuang Information, the price hikes translate to increases of approximately 0.29 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.31 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.31 yuan per liter for 0-diesel. For a typical private car with a 50-liter tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will now cost an extra 14.5 yuan per visit.
During this pricing cycle, international oil prices generally exhibited a volatile, upward trend. A representative from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission attributed the higher average price level to sustained geopolitical tensions and disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures briefly climbed to around $94 per barrel, marking a nearly four-week high.
On the supply side, Kpler data indicated a further decline in commodity vessel transits, while frequent attacks in the Middle East have escalated shipping and supply risks. However, oil prices partially retreated from their highs after reports emerged that parties were negotiating the resumption of navigation through the strait.
The Price Monitoring Center noted that geopolitical conditions remain highly uncertain. Negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz are proving contentious, and restrictions on passage through the strait are unlikely to ease in the short term. Ongoing attention will be paid to how geopolitical developments influence international oil prices.
"Earlier, domestic refinery operating rates were at relatively low levels, particularly in July when local refineries increased maintenance, leading to a decline in domestic refined oil output. At the same time, export controls were moderately relaxed, increasing export volumes from major suppliers. This tightened overall market supply and reduced inventory levels, providing supportive fundamentals for domestic gasoline and diesel markets," said Wang Yanting, an energy analyst at JLC Network Technology.
Looking ahead, Wang added that in August, operating rates at major refineries are expected to rise moderately, which may supplement domestic refined oil supply. However, summer travel continues to support gasoline demand, while some users in the diesel segment also have restocking needs, which could boost market transactions. Given that domestic gasoline and diesel inventories remain at relatively low levels, supportive factors persist in the domestic market, and refined oil prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels in the near term.
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