Since March, the A-share market has exhibited distinct structural trends. Driven by the global revaluation of physical assets and domestic "anti-involution" industrial policies, the "HALO" (Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence) sectors—represented by oil and gas, precious metals, and chemicals—have continued to strengthen.
The latest survey from a mutual fund research platform reveals that 63.16% of mutual fund institutions consider the current "HALO" sector热度合理, still in a rational allocation phase. 31.58% believe signs of overheating have emerged, with trading becoming crowded, while 5.26% view the热度偏低, suggesting some structural opportunities remain untapped.
A representative from Jin Ying Fund noted that against the backdrop of AI's dominance in 2025, capital in 2026 inherently requires diversified allocation. Marginal improvements in market景气度 and liquidity are favoring cyclical manufacturing assets with low valuations, providing a medium to long-term narrative for current "HALO" investments.
However, some institutions have highlighted short-term overheating risks. Tao Diwei, a fund manager at Jiahe Fund's equity investment department, stated that when A-shares exhibit herd behavior in chasing "HALO" themes, it often signals that valuations of related assets are no longer cheap, warranting caution against overheating risks.
Regarding the outlook for the "HALO" sector over the next six months, consensus among mutual funds is clearer. Survey results indicate 75% of institutions believe the "HALO" rally will enter a phase of volatility and differentiation, favoring opportunities in high-quality标的. 12.50% expect the rally to continue strengthening, while 6.25% predict a return to平淡, and another 6.25% anticipate a potential correction.
A representative from Hongtu Innovation Fund suggested that over the next six months, "HALO" investing will transition into a volatile and divergent stage, where performance verification will be a critical differentiator. "True HALO" assets with the following characteristics are likely to outperform: high order visibility (e.g., some transformer companies have overseas orders scheduled into 2028), strong盈利改善certainty (e.g., certain copper miners benefiting from expanding supply-demand gaps and rising gross margins), robust cash flow (e.g., some utility companies offering dividend safety margins), and solid industrial logic (e.g., surging power demand driven by AI computing).
Where will opportunities lie in this divergent market? Survey results show mutual funds currently favor compute-power synergy areas, such as AI data center energy solutions and grid equipment, supported by 39.13% of institutions. Energy security (oil, gas, green electricity) and resources (industrial metals like copper and silver) tie for second place, each favored by 26.09% of institutions. Some also看好high-end industrial equipment and utilities.
The Hongtu Innovation Fund representative added that compute-power synergy is the most direct reflection of the "HALO" logic in A-shares, combining "rigid demand" with "supply bottlenecks." On the demand side, AI development is driving a surge in electricity needs. On the supply side, global grid equipment (e.g., large transformers) faces multi-year delivery cycles and supply gaps. China's technological leadership in ultra-high voltage and smart grids, coupled with substantial grid investment plans during the "16th Five-Year Plan" period, gives related A-share sectors a significant advantage.
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