Natural Rubber: On Tuesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20# mixed rubber was priced at 14,750 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the raw material front, Thai rubber latex closed at 57.5 THB/kg yesterday, unchanged from the previous day, while Thai cup lump price closed at 51.8 THB/kg, down 0.2 THB/kg from the previous day; production has halted in Yunnan; production has halted in Hainan. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, including bonded and general trade, was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons from the previous period, up 2.94%. Bonded zone inventory was 99,500 tons, up 6.42%; general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, up 2.26%. The inbound rate for sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate for general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. Viewpoint: With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, indicating that the pricing framework for outright prices will shift from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Against the backdrop of broadly strengthening expectations in the commodity market recently, it is expected that RU, NR, and Sicom will remain in a high-range oscillation in the short term. Looking ahead, although global demand for rubber products like tires is expected to see moderate growth in 2026, this demand growth requires time, and with global trade barriers not yet fully eliminated, the magnitude of demand growth may still be limited. Therefore, it is anticipated that the peak of this rebound before the 2026 Lunar New Year may not exceed the level seen at the end of July 2025.
PX: Supply and demand are both decreasing. China's PX industry operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month to 89.4%, while the Asian industry operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6%. The domestic industry operating rate is already at a high level for the same period in previous years, and the announced maintenance plans for January to March are weaker than in previous years. Coupled with plans for overseas plants to increase rates, overall supply is expected to remain ample. On the demand side, downstream PTA units still have numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter, which will suppress PX demand. The PX supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the first quarter. Yesterday, the Japanese bond market experienced severe selling, and statements regarding Greenland and threats of tariffs on Europe led to declines in US stocks and the US dollar index. Falling temperatures drove a significant strengthening in European and US natural gas prices; however, Brent crude oil, despite an intraday surge, ultimately closed slightly lower. Nevertheless, considering that the underlying risk factors related to Iran have not been eliminated, they are expected to continue providing strong support below oil prices. Overall, the polyester industry still has underlying support, but terminal demand is showing a seasonal weakening trend. The industrial chain is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. The PX May futures price is likely to follow oil prices in a short-term correction; monitor overseas aromatics prices. From a medium-term perspective, consider establishing long positions near the support zone of 6950-7050.
PTA: Supply and demand are both decreasing. The PTA industry operating rate decreased by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 76.3%, which is at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. Combined with numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter, supply is expected to shrink. On the demand side, the atmosphere for new orders is generally weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. The polyester industry operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 88.3%, and industry operating rates are expected to accelerate their decline from late January. Overall, the fundamentals of the TA-polyester segment currently still have support, and PTA spot basis is generally strong, but its sustainability will be tested by expectations of polyester production cuts. Simultaneously, weakening terminal demand will also exert pressure, and the industrial chain faces inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. Yesterday, market funds favored chemical sector stocks, and this optimism spilled over into the commodity market, leading to a strengthening of PTA futures, with the front-month contract rising over 2%. In the short term, the TA May futures price is expected to adjust following oil prices, with strong support anticipated below the 5000 mark. Industrial players may consider rolling short hedging within the 5100-5300 range. Medium-term investors can focus on the support zone of 4950-5050, looking for buying opportunities near the 5000 mark.
EG: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 74.4%. Specifically, the operating rate for syngas-based EG increased by 1.6 percentage points to 80.2%, which is at a high level for the same period in previous years. Furthermore, current prices are not yet low enough to trigger large-scale production cuts, and the spot basis remains weak. Although high freight costs and maintenance of Middle Eastern plants may reduce imports in the first quarter, overall supply pressure persists due to ample domestic supply. On the demand side, new order performance is weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in January, with February potentially being the period of highest inventory pressure in the first half of the year. Overall, although the macroeconomic sentiment has warmed somewhat, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, making supply pressure the dominant factor. In the short term, the EG May contract price is expected to fluctuate; consider selling high and buying low within a reference range of 3700-4000.
PF: Supply is stable while demand is decreasing. The operating rate for direct-spun polyester staple fiber for spinning remained flat month-on-month at 99.1%. Low inventory levels at enterprises support production willingness, keeping the industry operating rate high, and the announced maintenance plans are relatively limited. On the demand side, downstream yarn enterprises are entering the pre-holiday wrap-up phase. Coupled with pressure for capital repatriation, enterprises are generally accelerating collections and becoming more cautious in procurement, further highlighting the characteristics of the demand off-season. Affected by weak terminal orders, some factories have begun to reduce operating rates in advance. The operating rate for polyester yarn decreased by 3.0 percentage points month-on-month to 61.0% and is expected to decline more rapidly from late January, thereby suppressing demand for staple fiber. In the short term, weak terminal demand will continue to cap prices, but support from the cost side remains. The PF March futures price is expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices.
PR: Supply is decreasing while demand is weak. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate decreased by 6.4 percentage points month-on-month to 68.4%. The industry operating rate is already at a low level for the same period in previous years. With planned shutdowns still ahead, such as at the Yisheng Hainan unit, supply is expected to continue contracting. On the demand side, the current period is the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, and the room for production recovery in January-February is expected to be limited. Due to continuous production cuts in the polyester bottle chip industry since the fourth quarter of last year and further reductions around the Spring Festival this year, the industry has been destocking consistently. Recent spot supply is tight, the basis has strengthened, and processing margins have expanded rapidly. The PR March futures price is expected to fluctuate following raw material prices. In the short term, consider a long PR/short PF spread strategy. The medium-term support zone is 5850-5950.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Tuesday, while spot prices were mostly steady. The commodity market was mostly lower on Tuesday, with weak sentiment. Fundamentally, recent maintenance schedules for soda ash have decreased. Last week's soda ash output increased by 22,000 tons week-on-week to 775,000 tons, indicating rising production and increased supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly. The latest alkali plant inventory decreased by 31,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.544 million tons, while the latest delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10,000 tons from the previous week to 387,700 tons. There were no changes to float glass production lines last week, but incidents of blocked ports in photovoltaic glass furnaces increased. Recently, the combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, leading to decreased demand for heavy soda ash, while demand for light soda ash remains stable for now. Midstream and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Soda ash imports edged up to 3,500 tons in December, while exports rose to 232,700 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase but remained below last year's levels; international macro influences were bearish; domestic policy disturbances have diminished. Overall, with short-term supply increasing and demand weakening, and the 'anti-involution'博弈 cooling down, fundamentals are a drag, and soda ash is temporarily weak and oscillating. On warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts held steady at 2,432 lots on Tuesday. Short-term soda ash futures prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. For SA2605, intraday reference range is 1160-1190.
Glass: Glass futures fell sharply on Tuesday, while spot prices were mostly steady. Short-term glass fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with supply pressure easing. Last week's glass production increased slightly sequentially, downstream procurement enthusiasm improved, and inventory decreased sequentially. The latest glass inventory decreased by 125,000 tons week-on-week to 2.651 million tons, up 20.9% year-on-year. There were no changes to glass production lines last week. The recent daily melting volume of glass has declined, with the latest in-operation daily melting capacity at 150,745 T/D, down approximately 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic completed housing area from January to December decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, with the decline widening. Recent real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase but remained below last year's levels. The latest number of deep-processing orders for glass increased by 0.7 days sequentially to 9.3 days. Short-term glass supply is declining, but expectations for the restart and ignition of some production lines are weighing on prices. Demand is seasonally weak, and futures prices are temporarily weak and oscillating. Short-term glass futures prices are expected to oscillate at low levels. For FG2605, intraday reference range is 1050-1080.
Caustic Soda: As of January 20, 2026, the SH2602 contract fell 43 yuan/ton to 1,903 yuan/ton, and the SH2603 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 1,960 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda was 580-710 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous working day. The procurement price for liquid caustic soda at a major local downstream alumina plant was 630 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price for 50% ion-membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1040-1070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous working day. Downstream and trader uptake was average, inventory at chlor-alkali enterprises increased, and prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda declined. Short-term caustic soda supply remains high. With liquid chlorine prices staying relatively strong and expectations for PVC export surges, the negative feedback on operating rates is insufficient. Current demand is sluggish, and procurement prices from alumina enterprises have been further lowered, creating a drag on the futures market. The short-term trend is expected to remain weak. Strategy: Weak on a standalone basis. For the main SH2603 contract, reference price range is 1900-2100 yuan/ton.
PVC: As of the day session close on January 20, 2026, the PVC2605 contract rose 21 yuan/ton to 5,032 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price basis versus the front-month futures contract was -237 yuan/ton, the North China spot basis was -507 yuan/ton, and the South China spot basis was -227 yuan/ton. Short-term reality versus expectation博弈 persists. Fundamentally, the supply-side operating rate is still on an upward trend sequentially, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. Positive news includes a substantial slowdown in the pace of PVC capacity additions in 2026. In the short term, the 'anti-involution' drive based on differentiated electricity prices in 2026 is expected to remain a driver for coal-chemical chain PVC. Furthermore, the cancellation of export tax rebates is positive for exports from January to March. Short-term fundamental improvements are limited, but expectations are optimistic, leading to oscillating price action. Strategy: Oscillating on a standalone basis. For the main V2605 contract, reference price range is 4600-4900 yuan/ton.
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