Last week (December 1–5), the gold market traded within a narrow range as the Fed's December rate cut expectations had already been priced in, while silver and copper's trading sentiment provided limited support. Amid hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, global liquidity tightened marginally, with rising bond yields dampening investor interest in gold.
Market observations indicate that gold fluctuated narrowly over the past week. On one hand, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data—including November ADP employment, September PCE, and November manufacturing PMI—highlighted a softening economic backdrop, fueling stimulus expectations. However, the market's high consensus on Fed easing in 2024 left gold lacking additional upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s unexpectedly hawkish stance further drained global liquidity, pushing the 10-year Japanese bond yield up by 13bps and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up by 12bps. China’s 10-year bond yield also edged up 1bp to 1.85%. With inflation expectations easing but nominal yields rising, gold’s financial appeal weakened, explaining its muted performance despite strong silver and copper rallies.
The People’s Bank of China added 30,000 ounces to its gold reserves in November, maintaining a slow but steady buying pace. While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, the absence of near-term catalysts suggests continued consolidation.
Key market developments last week included another weak U.S. ADP employment report, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in November against expectations of a 10,000 gain. Sector-wise, trade/transport/utilities saw the sharpest slowdown, while construction, finance, manufacturing, IT, and professional services all deteriorated from October. Small businesses drove the weakness, whereas large firms held steady.
September U.S. real PCE missed forecasts at 0% growth (vs. 0.1% expected), slightly easing inflation expectations. Core non-durables and durables consumption both softened. Meanwhile, the BOJ’s hawkish rhetoric tightened market liquidity, lifting U.S. and European bond yields.
The Bosera Gold ETF (159937) and its feeder funds (002610, 002611) track RMB-denominated gold prices via Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts. Investors can purchase these through Bosera’s app or website, with a minimum investment of 1 RMB (subject to channel rules), offering diversified gold exposure.
Risk Warning: Recent precious metal volatility has heightened market risks. Investors should assess their financial situation and risk tolerance carefully.
Disclaimer: This report draws on public sources, with no guarantees on accuracy. It does not constitute investment advice. Data sources include Wind, Bloomberg, and Bosera unless stated. Bosera Gold ETF and feeder funds carry medium risk. Investors should review fund documents and understand risks before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The funds are registered with China’s CSRC, but approval doesn’t imply endorsement.
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