Title
Earning Preview: Methanex revenue is expected to increase by 4.20%, and institutional views are mostly bullishAbstract
Methanex will release its quarterly results on March 5, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to modest top-line growth and mixed profitability trends as pricing tailwinds meet cost discipline and volume normalization.Market Forecast
Consensus anticipates Methanex to deliver revenue of 1.04 billion this quarter, with adjusted EPS of 0.66 and EBIT of 123.13 million; the year-over-year trajectory implies revenue growth of 4.20%, EPS contraction of 39.49%, and a slight EBIT increase of 1.07%. Forecasts for gross margin and net margin are not disclosed, but the mix of rising regional contract prices and steady operations underpins the outlook for stabilizing margins through the quarter.Core methanol production and marketing remains the operational engine, with recent pricing initiatives in North America signaling continued support for realizations and cash generation. North America appears the most promising near-term driver as contract prices have been lifted during the quarter, improving realizations and providing a constructive setup for sequential profitability.
Last Quarter Review
Methanex reported revenue of 927.44 million last quarter, a gross margin of 19.34%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -7.07 million, a net margin of -0.76%, and adjusted EPS of 0.06, with year-over-year changes of -0.79% for revenue and -95.04% for EPS. Net profit deteriorated quarter-over-quarter by 110.98%, reflecting weaker realized pricing, a soft mix, and timing effects around turnarounds and logistics.The operating profile was resilient enough to keep gross margin near 19%, aided by disciplined production and commercial execution despite softer realized prices and limited volume leverage. The main business highlight was a broadly stable revenue base at 927.44 million with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.79%, as shipment timing and price mix offset operating stability.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Methanol Operations Momentum
The core methanol operations are positioned for gradual improvement this quarter, anchored by price actions that have firmed the regional contract landscape since late December. Consensus for revenue at 1.04 billion suggests modest year-over-year growth of 4.20%, which, when paired with EBIT at 123.13 million, points to a sequential backdrop of better realizations and stable production days. While adjusted EPS of 0.66 implies a 39.49% decline year-over-year, the gap is consistent with the notion that raw-material inflation and logistics costs have not entirely retraced, and that the prior year benefited from stronger realized pricing patterns. The push-pull dynamic between higher contract prices and lingering cost headwinds means profit conversion could lag revenue growth, but the trajectory should nonetheless improve versus last quarter’s trough.The quarter’s operating cadence appears supported by normalizing plant availability and a smoother scheduling pattern, reducing the drag from turnarounds and non-recurring logistics disruptions observed in the prior period. If realized prices track recent contract moves and spot markets remain constructive, gross margin can stabilize around or above last quarter’s level even without a major volume lift. The interplay of pricing wins and cost control is the principal lever that underlies the consensus EBIT increase of 1.07% year-over-year, hinting at better mix management and more effective pass-through versus last quarter’s weaker conversion.
North America Pricing Upside as the Most Promising Driver
Within the company’s commercial footprint, North America stands out as the most promising near-term driver due to recent contract price increases that have accumulated since December. The pricing reset provides incremental support to realizations, especially in a period where volumes can be held steady as plants operate close to planned rates; this combination typically enhances cash margins even without a major step-up in shipments. As contract prices lead spot indicators, downstream offtake and inventory decisions tend to stabilize, which reduces volatility and creates a more predictable earnings cadence through the quarter.These price actions matter because they directly affect unit economics: higher realized prices improve the revenue per tonne and, when paired with disciplined procurement and logistics, can raise EBIT margin even if feedstock costs remain elevated. Consensus revenue growth of 4.20% suggests pricing is doing more heavy lifting than volumes, implying that commercial strategy is focused on value over sheer throughput for the quarter. If price strength persists and operations avoid unexpected downtime, North America’s contribution should set the tone for a more supportive margin profile across the portfolio, making it the key watchpoint for sequential recovery.
Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter
The stock’s near-term path hinges on realized pricing, operating reliability, and cost containment, with each element capable of moving earnings relative to consensus. Realized pricing will be the primary factor: the extent to which contract increases translate into average selling prices will determine how much of the revenue growth accrues to margins rather than washing through as top-line only. Operating reliability is the second factor; smooth plant runs and minimal downtime have outsized effects on cost absorption, fixed-cost leverage, and shipment timing, helping translate price improvements into earnings and cash flow.Cost containment is the third catalyst and relates to energy, logistics, and maintenance expenses. If energy markets remain manageable and logistics constraints do not re-emerge, the company should capture a larger share of the pricing uplift at the EBIT level. Conversely, any spike in feedstock or transport costs could cap margin recovery and keep EPS closer to the lower end of implied ranges, particularly as consensus already embeds a noticeable year-over-year EPS decline despite revenue growth. The balance of these forces—pricing up, operations stable, costs managed—will define whether the quarter delivers modest upside versus consensus or lands in line, and it is here that analysts’ constructive stance centers their argument.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish opinions dominate recent institutional commentary on Methanex, with multiple brokers reiterating positive views and raising or affirming price targets. Scotiabank has maintained a Buy rating with targets in the range of 50–60 US dollars, emphasizing disciplined operations and the improved pricing backdrop that supports realizations and cash generation in the near term. BMO’s analyst team has reiterated a constructive view, citing operational execution and strategic initiatives that underpin earnings resiliency even as EPS growth lags revenue this quarter. RBC has kept an Outperform stance, lifting its price target to 55 US dollars and highlighting the role of contract price adjustments in North America as the key driver of revenue stabilization and incremental margin improvement.Against this backdrop, a minority of commentary has shifted to neutral on valuation after a share-price run, but the prevailing view remains that the pricing environment’s turn, combined with stable plant availability, creates a more supportive setting for sequential earnings traction. The bullish case leans on three pillars: visibility on near-term pricing that already reflects contract gains; the discipline in production and commercial strategy that helps sustain gross margin; and the prospect of steady EBIT performance relative to last quarter’s trough, even if year-over-year EPS faces tougher comparisons. Analysts point to the alignment between consensus revenue growth of 4.20% and the early-quarter pricing actions as evidence that the setup for the quarter is reasonable, with upside potential if operating days and logistics remain smooth.
This constructive stance also reflects confidence that cash conversion can improve as price indices stabilize and operations move through a cleaner scheduling period. While EPS is expected to decline 39.49% year-over-year, the consensus EBIT increase of 1.07% and the anticipated revenue lift suggest the profit engine is moving in the right direction, and that leverage to pricing will matter more than volume for immediate performance. In sum, the majority outlook is bullish: pricing tailwinds, steady operations, and margin stabilization are expected to anchor the quarter’s results, with North America serving as the most promising near-term contributor to realizations and earnings quality.
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