China's latest round of refined oil product price adjustments is entering its final countdown. According to the current 10-working-day pricing mechanism, the twelfth price adjustment window of the year is set to open at 24:00 on June 18. With over 60% of the review period complete and only four statistical working days remaining, a price reduction is all but confirmed.
Driven by a sustained slump in international oil prices, the scale of the expected domestic price cut continues to widen. A second consecutive monthly price drop in June is now virtually locked in, marking what would be the third domestic fuel price reduction this year.
International oil markets experienced significant volatility on June 12. Prices fell sharply in early trading, stimulated by market expectations that the United States and Iran might sign a memorandum of understanding in the coming days. After a period of narrow consolidation, prices fell further by the close. At the end of the session, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery dropped by $2.83 to settle at $84.88 per barrel, a decline of 3.23%. The price of Brent crude for August delivery fell by $3.05 to close at $87.33 per barrel, down 3.37%.
Based on the latest monitoring data, the trend for a domestic price cut is clear and has entered a phase of substantial downward adjustment. Market institutions currently forecast a reduction of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and 230 yuan per ton for diesel. Translated into retail prices, this equates to an estimated drop of 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, and a synchronized decrease of 0.20 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0-grade diesel.
It is noteworthy that following another 3% plunge in international crude prices on Friday, the projected scale of the cut is still expanding. The overall anticipated reduction has now approached 0.25 yuan per liter. For a typical family car with a 50-liter fuel tank, this adjustment would translate to savings of approximately 10 yuan for a full tank of gasoline once the new prices take effect.
Industry analysis indicates that, barring an extreme and sudden surge in international oil prices during the remaining statistical period, this price reduction is a certainty. There remains potential for the cut to deepen further, offering vehicle owners the prospect of even greater savings.
Reports from multiple U.S. media outlets state that a senior U.S. government official expressed "80% to 85%" confidence on June 12 that a memorandum of understanding with Iran could be signed within the next few days. On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi disclosed parts of the draft Iran-U.S. memorandum in a media interview, covering arrangements for a ceasefire and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. This led to a significant reduction in global oil market supply, contributing to the volatility in international oil prices.
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